Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4. July 3, 2025
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
A321neo continues upward market share; good luck hitting rate 14/mo for the A220
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 20, 2025, © Leeham News: The A321neo continues its climb as the dominant single-aisle airplane in the Airbus family.
Figure 1. Airbus A321neo deliveries overtook all its single-aisle deliveries beginning in 2023 and continued to climb last year. Credit: Leeham News.
Given Boeing’s continued inability to deliver its 737 MAX single aisles at pre-grounding rates in early 2019 and the inability to certify and deliver the MAX 7 and MAX 10, comparisons are irrelevant.
The A321neo became Airbus’ dominant narrowbody aircraft in 2023. The upward trajectory gained momentum last year. The A321 is compared with the A320neo, the largely irrelevant A319neo, and the A220. A220 deliveries are overwhelmingly for the -300 model, with the -100 model, like the A319, largely irrelevant.
Airbus wants to increase production of the A320 family to 75 per month by 2027. It has studied boosting rates to 83 per month. Supply chain and engine delivery constraints caused Airbus to push the 75 rate to the right. There is no projected date for increasing to rate 83.
Airbus also wants to increase production of the A220 to 14/mo next year. Supply chain and engine delivery issues have also hurt boosting rates. Regardless, the goal of 14/mo next year seems unrealistic, given the current rate, which is believed to be around six or seven a month.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 5.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We have covered why the technical progress of battery-based aircraft has been slow. Now we look at what type of missions it can do this decade and beyond and why the limitations.
Figure 1. The Diamond eDA40 electric trainer. Source: Diamond. Read more
What’s the future of the Boeing 787-8?
By the Leeham News Team
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Jan. 16, 2025, © Leeham News: The short-body Boeing 787-8s have a problem when they come off lease. They aren’t as efficient people haulers as their larger cousins, the -9 and the -10.
Concept of Boeing 787-8F. Credit: Leeham News.
Understanding that, what is their future? 1) Re-lease them to another operator or extend the current leases, both at very favorable rates, to get something out of them. 2) Reduce them to spares, which could work for a few to fill the spare parts pipeline, but after that the spares value really starts dropping as supply goes up. 3) P2F freighter conversions.
Of the choices, a P2F program seems the best way to extract value out of the airframes. The key to making it work is conversion cost. There have been some fairly solid rumblings that Boeing has either completed the conversion engineering package or, in fact, started to offload the planning to Boeing of India to get the package executed. Boeing says there is no current engineering underway but would not comment on previous work.
Related Article
Let’s look at what it takes from the P to the F.
FAA understaffing affects air operations oversight; NTSB falls short, too
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By Colleen Mondor
Commentary
Jan. 13, 2025, © Leeham News: When discussing the topic of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) staffing, it is traditionally Air Traffic Controllers that command media attention. Even when problems surfaced after the Boeing 737 MAX accidents in 2018-19, and following the Jan. 5, 2024, door plug failure on Alaska Airlines flight 1282, the discussion of FAA oversight remained narrow, focused only on Boeing.
Staffing levels within Flight Standards District Offices (FSDO) and how they impact commercial operations, especially among Part 135 operators, are rarely mentioned. (Part 135 operators are commuter airlines and on-demand companies.) And yet it is the inspectors for operations, maintenance, and avionics who can have the greatest positive impact on flight safety or, when absent, the most detrimental.
Between 2019 and 2023, there were 330 accidents involving Part 135 operators. (More than 100 occurred while operating under Part 91 or Part 133. Part 91 are individuals and corporate operators. Part 133 covers rotorcraft external operations.) In 11 of them, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) conducted extensive interviews with FAA inspectors. Such interviews are largely the only way to obtain direct information on inspectors’ feelings about staffing and workload concerns. Their experiences vary, with Alaska standing out with the most severe staff shortages. A common theme is not having enough time to conduct in-person visits.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 4.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 10, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We listed the different projects in the second Corner of the series that have come as far as flying a functional model or prototype. In Part 3, we went through some of the causes of the slow growth. It was a mix of inexperienced startup managments, all wanting to be the new Elon Musk but lacking elementary knowledge in the aeronautical field, to what is the real hard part of an alternative propulsion concept.
Many startups developed new electric motors for eAirplane or eVTOL use, a relatively straightforward development when the real hard part is the batteries. We described how batteries differ significantly from fuel as an energy source in Part 3.
Now, we add a market aspect that is poorly understood by most players.
Figure 1. The Pipistrel Velis Electro trainer. Source: Pipistrel.
The market is ready for a 787F. But is Boeing?
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing will cease production of its important 767F and 777F freighters in two years. Emission rules approved in 2017 by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration means these aircraft will be non-compliant beginning in 2028. As a consequence, production must cease.
Concept of Boeing 787-8F converted freighter. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing has a solution to replace the 777F: the 777X family’s -8F is now targeted for entry into service (EIS) in 2028. Many believe that this date is squishy due to repeated delays in the 777X program. The aircraft still isn’t certified. The lead model, the passenger 777-9, was supposed to enter service as early as December 2019. Now, Boeing hopes to deliver the first -9s in 2026. This date remains uncertain, however.
The 777-8F is the next in the family, followed in 2030 by the ultra-long-haul 777-8 passenger model.
Boeing asked the US Congress for an exemption to allow the 767F, based on the -300ER passenger frame, to continue production after 2027. Congress approved the request. But with no orders after 2027 anyway, Boeing’s new CEO Kelly Ortberg announced in October that the production of the 767F will end in 2027. (Production of the KC-46A US Air Force refueling tanker, based on the 767-200ER, will continue.)
The market is ready for a 787 freighter to replace the 767F. But is Boeing ready to launch a program?
2025 remains another year for recovery in commercial aerospace
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: Don’t look for any dramatic new product launches in 2025.
Nor should you expect any dramatic news, absent global upheaval of some kind.
This year is going to be yet another year dominated by recovery. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which officially ended in 2022. Recovery by the supply chain. Recovery for Pratt & Whitney’s nearly decade-long problems with its Pure Power GTF engines supplying the Airbus A220, A320 family and Embraer E2 jets. Recovery by Airbus from its production and delivery delays. Recovery by Boeing from its series of self-inflicted crises, now beginning the sixth year.
There is just no getting around the fact that the commercial aerospace industry isn’t a smooth-running industry. It’s a long way from 2018, when all sectors were running smoothly. There is still a long way to go to recovery.
Here’s LNA’s take on what’s to come this year.
Boeing touts safety progress but opposes SPEEA initiative
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing today issued an update on its year-long effort to improve safety protocols in the final assembly lines of the 7-Series commercial airplanes.
However, the update received lukewarm reviews from one of its leading unions and some retired employees charged with safety protocols who had complained for years about the safety culture.
Boeing has opposed a safety plan proposed by the engineers’ union, SPEEA. No meeting has been held since March 26 last year, and none is scheduled.
The update comes two days before the first anniversary of the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 in-flight blow out of a door plug on a brand new 737-9 MAX. The airplane had taken off from the Portland (OR) airport and was passing through 16,000 ft when the plug on the left side aft of the wing blew off the airplane.
Nobody was sitting in the two seats next to the plug. A teenager in the row in front of the plug was nearly sucked out of the plane. There were minor injuries and damage from the decompression throughout the cabin and cockpit. The plane made a safe emergency landing minutes later.
The cause was traced to line assembly personnel’s failure to reinstall four bolts holding the plug in place. The plug eventually shifted in its track and separated from the aircraft. The plug blowout also blew up Boeing’s recovery efforts from the 2018-19 MAX crisis following two fatal crashes. These were traced to a design flaw with a flight system known as MCAS.
In its report issued today, Boeing said that it has:
Overview
- Addressed over 70% of action items in commercial airplanes production based on employee feedback during Quality Stand Down sessions.
- Instituted new random quality audits of documented removals in high frequency areas to ensure compliance to process.
- Added hundreds of hours of new curriculum to training programs, including quality proficiency, Safety Management System (SMS) Positive Safety Culture, and critical skills.
- Mapped and prepared thousands of governance documents and work instructions for revision.
- Significantly reduced defects in 737 fuselage assembly at Spirit AeroSystems by increasing inspection points at build locations and implementing customer quality approval process.
Updates 1 and 2: Key reason for Jeju 2216’s tragedy: the airport localizer construction and location
Update, Dec. 30: Reuters published this graphic, which is superb and self-explanatory. The full story is here.
Update 2. Dec. 31: A new Reuters article has some important detail about the location of the localizer vis-a-vis the runway and apron. Excerpts:
- Comments in the airport’s operating manual, uploaded early in 2024, said the embankment was too close to the end of the runway and recommended that the location of the equipment be reviewed during a planned expansion.
- “Unfortunately, that thing was the reason that everybody got killed, because they literally hit a concrete structure,” Captain Ross Aimer, the chief executive of Aero Consulting Experts, told Reuters. “It shouldn’t have been there.”
- Muan International Airport’s Operations Manual said the navigation equipment, or localisers, had been installed too near the end of the runway, or just 199 m (218 yards) from the crash site.
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South Korean officials have previously said the structure was about 250 m (273 yards) from the end of the runway itself, though a paved apron extends past that.
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The runway design did not meet industry best practices, however, said John Cox, chief executive of Safety Operating Systems and a former 737 pilot, adding that they preclude any hard structure like a berm within at least 300 m (330 yards) of the end of the runway.
By Scott Hamilton
Commentary
Dec. 30, 2024, © Leeham News: The Dec. 29 (local time) accident of Jeju Flight 2216 is a tragedy that didn’t have to happen.
It’s far too soon to say what caused the emergency on the airplane. Within hours a host of theories emerged about the cause. The airport fire chief blamed the accident on a bird strike (singular). I’ve never heard of a single bird strike bringing down an airliner. Multiple bird strikes have brought down airliners going back to the propeller days. In recent history, US Airways 1549—the flight that Capt. Chesley Sullenburger and co-pilot Jeff Skiles safely landed in the Hudson River—is the most famous example.
Korean and assisting investigators will reveal if 2216 suffered multiple strikes that caused power to both engines to quit, as happened with 1549. The flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit voice recorder (CVR) should put this to rest. The analysis of these should also reveal why the landing gear, slats and flaps were not extended. The cockpit resource management (CRM) will be analyzed as well to understand the coordination between the two pilots.
Whatever the reason for the emergency landing, the incontrovertible cause for the disaster that befell the plane was the presence of a berm and concrete structure of the runway localizer a short distance from the end of the runway. This structure should never have been constructed in this manner. Having been done, it should have been later removed and replaced by a structure that would not have been disastrous to the emergency flight.
I’m optimistic that the initial readout of at least one of the flight recorders will be available this week. One of the recorders was damaged and is being sent to the US National Transportation Safety Board in Washington (DC) for analysis. (It was not revealed which one at this writing.)
In the meantime, a wide list of topics will be investigated. These include but are not limited to:
Merry Christmas 2024 and Happy New Year 2025
Leeham News is taking the holidays off. Unless there is some huge breaking news before, we will return on Jan. 6, 2025.
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