Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
737 MAX special report
Oct. 16, 2019: AlJazeera produced a 30 minute special report on the Boeing 737 MAX.
Unlike the hour-long hit piece on the 787 several years ago, undertaken with questionable tactics, this one is well done.
See the report below.
Pontifications: Muilenburg loses chairman’s title; are his days numbered?
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Look for Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to leave in 2020.
At least this is my view.
But some aerospace analysts I spoke with over the weekend are split. Some believe Friday’s action by the Boeing Board of Directors “stripping” (as most media headlines and stories positioned it) the chairman’s title from Muilenburg, while his retaining the president and CEO titles, is the first step in easing him out the door next year. This is my view, too.
Muilenburg also remains on the Board.
Others think handing the non-executive chairman’s title to lead director David Calhoun is actually an effort to save Muilenburg’s job.
Here’s the divergent thinking. None of the analysts wanted to be identified because by investment bank policy, their remarks hadn’t been cleared for quotation and none had yet issued research notes in reaction.
The time for a 767RE passenger model has come and gone
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Introduction
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is reconsidering a previous idea to re-engine the 767 with GEnx powerplants, Flight Global reported last week.
The idea was run up the flagpole, so-to-speak, in 2017.
Boeing 747-400. Source: Delta Air Lines.
At that time, the 737 MAX was just entering service. There was, of course, no hint of any turbulence on the horizon.
The business case for the New Midmarket Aircraft was difficult even then. So why not look at a 767RE and restarting the 757 line, also up upgrades?
Boeing being Boeing, it looks at everything. It ruled out restarting the 757 line (the challenges would have been pretty daunting).
The 767 got more studious traction, including simply restarting the passenger line and providing a really cheap acquisition. A 767RE, however, was viewed as too complex under the circumstances and it would compete with the 787.
American Airlines and United Airlines were actually interested in the airplane restart.
Summary
- B767F-RE may be to counter A330-900F approach to a major cargo airline.
- B767P-RE likely would be met favorably–by Airbus.
- Re-engining 767 repeats 737RE experience.
JATR study “damning” to Boeing, FAA, New York Times says
Oct. 11, 2019: The international study group that was named to examine the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX and the MCAS system was issued 
today.
The New York Times obtained an advance copy. It wrote that the study is “damning” to Boeing and the FAA.
LNA now has the full study. It may be downloaded here: Final_JATR_Submittal_to_FAA_Oct_2019.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 12
October 11, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we continue our discussion of pitch stability augmentation systems when we have a mechanical (“fly by steel wire”) pitch control system.
Figure 1. The typical pitch moment curve of a modern airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300 under 150 seats? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 10, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We have over the last weeks analyzed what aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, comparing Embraer’s E195-E2 with Airbus A220-300.
After looking at fundamental data, drag data and fuel consumption and other costs for the aircraft, it’s now time to summarize the series by looking at what route networks the aircraft are suitable for.
Summary:
- The E195-E2 and A220-300 address the segment market segment under 150 seats.
- They have similarities but also differences.
- These differences have made an early adopter operate both types over different types of networks.
Europe’s Regional airlines meet in Antibes, Cotes d’Azur.
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 9, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Antibes France: The European Airlines Association, ERA, gathered 44 of its 51 member airlines in Antibes France, today for the first day of its 2019 General Assembly meeting.
LNA participated in the event for the first time and we found an impressive gathering of airline and airport representatives, aircraft OEMs and support businesses discussing the challenges facing the European regional air transport market.
Norway’s Wideroe, the launch customer for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 is one of the airlines present.
Boeing’s 737 in another pickle, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The FAA Air Worthiness Directive (AD) for high time Boeing 737 NGs regarding cracked rear pickle forks was issued Thursday last week.
Boeing had a call with 737 NG operators today giving the latest information regarding the cracks. Of the 500 first inspected aircraft, 5% had cracks. These aircraft are now grounded. Boeing is setting up repair lines with the US line starting work on the first NG this week. The expected repair time is three weeks for the first aircraft.
Figure 1. The rear pickle forks carrying the main loads from the wing to the fuselage crack near the rear wing spar. Source: Leeham Co.
Amazon, a new challenge for FedEx and UPS
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Now open for all readers.
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: Amazon’s moves into ACMI air service, a dramatic construction of an air freight operation and entering ground delivery services threatens FedEx and UPS.
Although UPS last week beat Amazon to the punch with approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for drone-based package deliveries, Amazon was first to advance the idea.
FedEx canceled its contracts with Amazon as the latter moved into ground delivery. FedEx revenues have fallen sharply in recent months.
Summary
- Growing Amazon footprint in delivery business;
- Leads to direct competition with FedEx and UPS;
- Drone delivery development;
- A threat to traditional delivery service business model;
- Trade slump exposes FedEx more.
Pontifications: Muilenburg’s departure wouldn’t go far enough
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: A recent call for Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg by my friend Ernie Arvai to resign or be removed has a litany of woes at the company that occurred under the CEO.
These mostly relate to the 737 MAX crisis, but also include the policy of returning free cash flow to shareholders rather than investing in new airplanes. Other issues are also cited.
Arvai makes many good points, but he doesn’t go far enough.
If Muilenburg deserves to go, so does Greg Smith, the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Enterprise Performance & Strategy.
The emphasis on cost control, which have become part of the focus of the MAX development, emanates from Smith. The strategy for new products ultimately falls under Smith, who vehemently opposes investment in the New Midmarket Airplane.
If these two deserve to go, so do the Board of Directors.
It’s the Board of Directors who set the shareholders’ value policy that Muilenburg carries out.