Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 16. Compressor air use.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 19, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
We have covered the problem areas of a compressor and how these achieve power-to-air-pressure conversion efficiencies of over 90% by using advanced 3D airflow modeling. Now, we look at the users of the air from the engin’s compressor.
Figure 1. The gas turbine cycle and its parts. Source: Rolls-Royce: The Jet Engine.
Aircraft Certification: How the Max crashes changed everything
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By the Leeham News Team
The Airbus A321XLR got caught up in the new aircraft certification environment created by the Boeing 737 MAX crisis. Source: Airbus.
July 18, 2024, © Leeham News: Much of the attention in the airline industry has recently been focused on the production issues faced by both major OEMs, Airbus (AB) and Boeing (BA). Supply chains are snarled, airlines had to re-jig their fleets, keeping less efficient aircraft in service longer than they planned and financial performance suffered.
LNA recently drilled down and detailed the long-term effects on Southwest Airlines, which is dealing with jet certification delays and must make do with a less-than-ideal fleet mix.
One of the overlooked aspects are the consequences of the Boeing 737 Max 8 accidents and subsequent Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 door plug blowout is the effect it is having on getting new, more efficient variants certified into service to replace older aircraft.
Both OEMs have been affected. Airbus had to push back the introduction of its A321XLR by about a year, but a detailed inspection by LNA reveals that Boeing is suffering more from the increased scrutiny of the FAA and Congress.
Airbus sees 3.8% growth in new aircraft deliveries through 2043 vs last year’s forecast
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By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus boosted its 20 year forecast for new aircraft deliveries by 3.8% compared with last year’s Global Market Forecast (GMF).
Single aisle mainline aircraft (ie, no regional jets) deliveries edge up by 880 aircraft in the new forecast. Widebody passenger and freighter deliveries also edge up, by 700 aircraft.
GMF forecast 2024-2043
Airbus summarizes:
- Initial average traffic growth rate of 8.4% CAGR until 2027 as it recovers growth lost during the pandemic;
- Long term trend: average annual passenger traffic growth of 3.6% per year from 2027 to 2043, and 3.1% for freight;
- China and India, and more generally Asia-Pacific as a whole, will power growth, further shifting aviation’s center of gravity’ towards Asia;
- The projected 2043 world Fleet-In-Service will be 48,230 in 2043 vs. 24,240 beginning of 2024.
Demand for 42,430 new passenger and freighter deliveries (vs. 40,850 GMF2023) in the 2024-2043 period;
- Of these: 33,510 Single aisle (v 32,630 GMF2023); 8,920 Widebodies (v 8,220 GMF2023);
- This is 1,580 more (v GMF23) reflecting one extra year of growth
- Freighter demand: 2,470 deliveries of which 940 are new-build, the rest coming from P2F conversion; and
- Growth primarily driven by GDP increase (+2.6% 2023-2043), middle class expansion, first time fliers, and growing trade (+3.1% 2023-2043 CAGR vs. +2.9 % GMF23).
Airbus does not specify sub-categories of the single- and twin-aisle sectors. It’s not possible to delineate sub-sectors such as 100-150 seats or 151-240 seats or similar designations within the twin-aisle sector with the information available.
But in the first half of 2024, the A321neo accounts for 93% of the A320 family orders. The A320neo won 6.5% (there was one order for the A319neo.) There were no orders for the A220.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 15. Compressor efficiency.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 12, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
We covered the problem areas of a compressor last week. Now, we will discuss how modern compressors can have over 90% conversion efficiency from turbine power to air compression.
Figure 1. The gas turbine cycle and its parts. Source: Rolls-Royce: The Jet Engine.
To what extent can the A321XLR replace the Boeing 757, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 11, 2024, © Leeham News: We are comparing the Airbus a321XLR to the Boeing 757 to understand to what extent it can replace the 757 on the longer routes it operates for major airlines like United, American, and Delta.
We have looked at the development and operational history of the aircraft, their Apples-to-Apples capacity and range. Now, we use Leeham’s Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to compare the operational costs of the aircraft.
Summary:
- The Boeing 757-200 has the same passenger capacity as the A321LR/XLR and a larger cargo capacity.
- Its range can compete with the A321LR but not the XLR. Both beat the 757 on operational economics.
Boeing to plead guilty to new criminal charges related to MAX crisis
By Scott Hamilton
July 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing agreed to plead guilty to new criminal charges related to the 2021 Deferred Prosecution Agreement that the US Department of Justice says the company failed to live up to.
By pleading guilty, Boeing avoids a trial. Some families of the 346 victims of two 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019 already indicated they will object to this new agreement, which must be approved by a federal judge.
Boeing will pay a second fine of $243.6m, new conditions related to safety improvements (including spending at least $455m on new safety protocols) and a special overseer will be appointed to monitor Boeing’s compliance this time.
The second fine is identical to the first one in 2021. However, many—including LNA—view these fines as inadequate.
By comparison, previous DOJ Deferred Prosecution Agreements include larger fines for violations that did not include safety violations or deaths.
Embraer’s outlook improves as supply chain stabilizes, near-term availability drives demand
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
July 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Embraer is on track for a relatively upbeat Farnborough Airshow later this month, having been spared most of the supply chain headwinds plaguing Airbus and Boeing.
It is expected to reveal updates to its E-Jet family at Farnborough, including lower maintenance costs, cabin upgrades, and more.
Source: Embraer.
In May, the Brazilian OEM reaffirmed its target of 72-80 commercial deliveries this year, citing the stabilization of its global supply chain. It doesn’t disclose its commercial production rate. But its peak production reached 96 E-Jets per year pre-COVID.
Embraer’s reported backlog as of March 31 was the highest in company history: 187 E175s, 12 E190-E2s, and 178 E195-E2s. The company has since taken orders for 10 more E190-E2s and 13 E195-E2s, and has delivered approximately 18 E2s overall, according to Planespotters.net.
Most previous-generation E175s are being built for major US airlines subject to pilot “scope clause” or regional airlines operating on their behalf. Scope clause restricts how many aircraft can be flown below a certain number of seats (generally 76-80) or 86,000 lbs MTOW to protect mainline pilots from having their work outsourced to lower-paying regional airlines.
Summary
- E2 delivery slot availability is a key advantage.
- E195-E2 economics favor smaller markets, while the A220 is better suited to longer routes.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 14. The compressor problems.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 5, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
We covered the basics of how a compressor works last week. Now, we look at the challenges in compressor design (there are plenty).
Figure 1. The gas turbine cycle and its parts. Source: Rolls-Royce: The Jet Engine.
To what extent can the A321XLR replace the Boeing 757, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 4, 2024, © Leeham News: We are comparing the Airbus A321XLR to the Boeing 757 to understand to what extent it can replace the 757 on the longer routes it operates for major airlines like United, American, and Delta.
After Boeing didn’t do the obvious 757 replacement, the NMA and Airbus gradually eked out more range and seats on the A321; the A321LR/XLR is the only game in town to replace the 757, especially as the Boeing 737-10 availability continuously slips to the right.
Summary:
- The A321LR/XLR has the same passenger capacity as the 757-200.
- The 757-200 has the range of the A321LR but can’t match the A321XLR.
Boeing is fighting fire with fire in reacquiring Spirit Aero (Updated)
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By Dan Catchpole
Analysis
July 1, 2024, © Leeham News: This is an analysis of Boeing’s reported $4.7 billion purchase Spirit AeroSystems, as Reuters reported Sunday.
First, let’s set the frame.
Boeing seems incapable of doing anything right these days. Even a pre-Farnborough Airshow media briefing by the aerospace giant last week resulted in a reprimand from the National Transportation Safety Board for sharing information about its investigation into the panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight on Jan. 5.
The company is bleeding money in its commercial and defense divisions. Boeing could turn around its balance sheet if it could straighten out production for its cash cows—the 737 and 787. Yet somehow, both programs are still struggling.
Boeing’s pissed off the Federal Aviation Administration, the NTSB, key members of Congress, some of its biggest customers, and the Machinists union in Washington and Oregon, among others. Its current CEO is a lame duck who helped create the crises overwhelming the company. Potential successors have said they don’t want the job. Among the front-runners to succeed David Calhoun is BCA’s new CEO Stephanie Pope, who has no production or product development experience and has had few public appearances since she took over BCA in March. There are plenty more problems, but you get the point.
Spirit AeroSystems has been floundering since the COVID-19 pandemic threw the aviation industry into chaos. Since 2020, it has recorded $3.2 billion in net losses, including $617 million posted in the first quarter of this year. Boeing has helped keep the company afloat with financing and price changes.
In short: Boeing is fighting countless fires, and it just bought another one.
Can Boeing fight fire with fire?