Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
ZeroM, Airbus’ effort to reduce traveled work
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: Traveled work is the bane of any airplane manufacturer’s production line.
“Traveled work” is when parts are unavailable when the plane is in final assembly. To keep production moving, the manufacturer—whether it’s Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, or some other firm—notes the missing item and continues production. The airplane is rolled off the line and the work is finished on the ramp when the part becomes available.
Jurgen Westermeier, Airbus Chief Procurement Officer. Credit: Airbus.
The OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) approach the issue differently. Some prefer the parts to arrive “just in time,” which keeps inventory to a minimum. This reduces cash outflow.
But just in time creates the problem of missing parts. One time, Airbus was assembling A320s, and USB ports failed to arrive while planes were on the assembly line. The ports had to be installed later—traveled work.
Another option is to create an inventory. But to minimize the cash commitment, and the space taken up by inventory, the OEMs limit the supply. Airbus, for example, has a “buffer” of between a few weeks and a few months, depending on the parts.
Airbus also attacks the challenge with a program called ZeroM. LNA met last month with Airbus’ chief procurement officer (CPO), Jurgen Westermeier, on the sidelines of the Aviation Forum in Hamburg. He explained ZeroM and how it works. Below is a transcript of our meeting. It has been edited for clarity and space.
“Unplanned” removal, installation inspection procedure at Boeing
By the Leeham News Team
Jan. 15, 2024, © Leeham News: It’s not supposed to happen.
The door plug on the Boeing 737-9 MAX isn’t supposed to separate from the airplane in flight, as it did on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 on Jan. 5 this year.
There is conflicting reporting whether the emergency exit or door plug is opened on the Boeing 737 final assembly line for access to the interior. Examining Google images, two photos show the exit or plug closed while over-wing exits are open. Credit: Unknown.
The investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is in its infancy. Early evidence suggests four bolts intended to prevent the door plug from shifting in its attachment brackets either failed or weren’t installed. Inspections after the 1282 incident by Alaska, and United Airlines found loose bolts in other MAX 9s. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Jan. 6 grounded the 171 MAX 9s operated by the two carriers until inspections and repairs, if needed, are completed.
This photo of a Boeing 737-900ER for Turkish Airlines shows a door plug closed on the 737 final assembly line. The over-wing exits are open. Credit: Unknown.
Boeing CEO David Calhoun, while telling CNBC that he wasn’t pointing fingers, did precisely that. He said Spirit AeroSystems had a “quality escape,” adding that Boeing failed to catch it, so it also had a quality escape.
How could this happen? The NTSB probe will presumably figure this out. Spirit ships the 737-9 fuselages with the door plug installed. Conflicting reporting suggests that Spirit is supposed to install the door plugs in the final, secure condition; or these are shipped with the plugs in place but in a condition that Boeing would later secure. The NTSB will sort this out, too.
Regardless, Boeing should have inspected the door plugs and assured these are in final condition prior to delivery. The Seattle Times reported on Jan. 14 that contrary to other reports, Boeing doesn’t open or remove the door plug when the MAX 9 is in final assembly. A retired Boeing safety employee with assembly line experience says Spirit ships the door plugs in a temporary condition, expecting that Boeing may remove them during final assembly.
Outlook 2024: Can ATR finally achieve its production target?
By Judson Rollins
Jan. 15, 2024, © Leeham News: For the second year in a row, ATR fell short of its stated production targets.
ATR delivered just 25 new aircraft in 2022 and 35 in 2023. The latter was five short of its stated target. In early 2023, the manufacturer said supply chain and staffing shortages were the two main reasons for its 2022 shortfall. It has not yet discussed what went wrong last year.
At last year’s Paris Air Show, ATR said it wants to deliver 80 aircraft per year by 2026. However, this seems unrealistic given the OEM’s current order book of 176 aircraft, according to recent data viewed by LNA.
ATR STOL test aircraft. Source: v1Images.com.
Summary
- Turboprop demand forecasts seem questionable.
- ATR is delaying its timeline for a new eco turboprop.
- Progress continues on a future STOL variant.
FAA boosts oversight of Boeing; undelivered MAX 9s have discrepancies
By the Leeham News Team
Jan. 12, 2024, © Leeham News: The Federal Aviation Administration today announced it is boosting its oversight of Boeing production and manufacturing on the 737-9 MAX.
The FAA’s been overseeing Boeing deliveries of the MAX since recertifying the airplane in November 2020. Following the discovery of production issues of the 787 in October 2020 that resulted in Boeing suspending delivery for more than a year, the FAA also assumed certification by an FAA official.
With today’s announcement, the FAA said it will add “new and significant actions to immediately increase oversight” to audit the MAX 9 production line and its suppliers to “evaluate Boeng’s compliance with its approved quality procedures.
The FAA also will increase monitoring of MAX 9 in-service events and assess the safety risks of delegated authority. The full announcement is below.
Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 45. Continued Airworthiness
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 12, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design and Production, we now look at the Operational phase of a new airliner family.
For the operational phase, the airplane must pass scrutiny for Continued Airworthiness. Today, we discuss the different means available to the Regulator, such as Airworthiness Directives ( ADs) and System Bulletins (SBs) to the OEM to make sure any detected issues get noticed and corrected.
Figure 1. The Boeing MAX 9 Door Plug Emergency AD issued last week. Source: FAA.
Airbus posts record orders in 2023, meets delivery target despite challenges
By Tom Batchelor
January 11, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus exceeded its target for aircraft deliveries last year and achieved a record number of orders despite what it called a “complex” and “volatile” operating environment, according to the company’s newly released 2023 order and delivery data.
The European planemaker delivered 735 commercial aircraft to 87 customers in 2023, versus 661 commercial aircraft to 84 customers the previous year – an increase of 11%, Figure 1.
Figure 1. A visualization of Airbus orders, deliveries, and backlog in 2023. Click to enlarge. Source: Airbus.
That was above the Airbus target of 720 commercial aircraft deliveries over the 12 months.
Of the 735 deliveries, 68 were from the A220 family, 571 were from the A320 family, 32 were from the A330 family and 64 were A350 family aircraft. Compared with the previous year, A330 and A350 family deliveries were broadly flat, while A220 and A320 family deliveries were significantly higher.
A321 deliveries accounted for 56% of A320 family deliveries. Airbus confirmed the latest variant in that family, the A321XLR, has reached the latter part of flight testing with the first delivery expected in Q2 2024.
The commercial aircraft business registered 2,319 gross new orders (2,094 net after cancellations), putting its 2023 year-end backlog at 8,598 aircraft. This was the first time Airbus has topped 2,000 net orders in a year.
The figure was a sharp increase versus 2022, when there were 1,078 gross commercial orders (820 net), and 7,239 aircraft in the backlog.
For comparison, Boeing data shows it delivered 528 aircraft in 2023 and received 1,456 gross new orders (1,314 net).
Alaska 1282 isn’t a “737 MAX” story; it’s about quality assurance at Boeing or Spirit
Update: The Federal Aviation Administration today notified Boeing it is under investigation for potentially failing to ensure the door plug was properly installed.
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 11, 2024, © Leeham News: Alaska Airlines Flight 1282’s (AS 1282) decompression last Friday on a Boeing 737-9 MAX understandably brought new focus and doubts about the MAX program.
The MAX was grounded by the Federal Aviation Administration for 21 months after the March 2019 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737-8 MAX. This followed an October 2018 crash of a Lion Air MAX 8 under similar flight conditions. The two accidents were traced to the root cause of a mis-designed Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS.
Note: This data is based on October 2023 information. Full year 2023 data is not available at this writing.
When a door plug for an inactive emergency exit blew out of AS 1282 at 16,000 ft minutes after departure from Portland (OR), it meant trouble for Boeing and confidence in the MAX. Fortunately, no fatalities and only a few minor injuries resulted from the decompression. The flight returned to Portland and landed safely.
Alaska grounded its fleet of 65 MAX 9s within hours. United Airlines followed the next day. It has more MAX 9s—79—than any other airline. Shortly after United’s action, the FAA made it mandatory: the MAX 9s would remain grounded until inspections and fixes, if required, could be completed. A few other international airlines followed suit.
But as information emerged through Tuesday of this week, it became clear that this story is not a “MAX” story. It’s a story about quality assurance at Boeing or Spirit AeroSystems, the maker of the 737 fuselages and the plug door.
Managing supply chain stress continues
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic impact on aerospace and its supply chain was deep and long lasting. The airframe and engine manufacturers haven’t fully recovered. Part of the reason is that the supply chain hasn’t fully recovered, either.
LNA attended the Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, last month. On the sidelines of the event, we met with Jurgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer for Airbus. We discussed the supply chain and other issues. The following is a transcript of this interview. It has been edited for space and clarity.
Related Story:
737 incidents prompt new scrutiny at Boeing
By the Leeham News Team
Analysis
Jan. 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Following in the footsteps of the 737 rudder bolt omission inspection just last month, we have the Jan. 5 incident on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 in which an emergency exit plug door blew off the airplane at 16,500 ft. This may indicate another quality assurance failure at either Boeing or Spirit AeroSystems.
The door plug design used on the Boeing 737-900/900ER, 737-8-200 and 737-9. Credit: Boeing, via the National Transportation Safety Board.
We don’t know if this is a Boeing problem, a Spirit problem, a bolt manufacturer problem, or an Alaska Airlines problem. It’s way too soon in the investigation to draw conclusions. Certainly, because it’s Boeing’s name on the airplane, and especially given the MAX history, people are jumping to the conclusion that Boeing screwed up again. While this may ultimately prove true, LNA is not at all prepared to conclude today that this is the case.
Illustration of the bolt locations securing the Boeing 737-9 door plug to the airframe. Credit: Capt. Chris Brady.
The flight left Portland (OR) for Ontario (CA) about 4:30pm. Six minutes later, as the two-month-old Boeing 737 MAX 9 was climbing through 16,500 ft to cruising altitude, the inactive emergency exit plug door, aft of the wing on the left side of the plane, separated from the aircraft. Decompression followed, with an emergency descent and landing back at Portland. There were no serious injuries.
The area where the door plug and cell phones fell from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. Credit: Google Earth, NTSB.
Boeing and Spirit have been plagued in recent years by quality “escapes.” Inspection and quality assurance may be the culprit again. The official investigation will take some time. The rapid issuance of the Emergency AD Note mandating only a one time inspection is a logical response to something having been misassembled, with the fix being to verify it is assembled per drawing. Whether this is another piece of poor workmanship not being caught by inspection remains to be seen.
The following analysis was compiled by LNA’s news team.
Outlook 2024: Embraer’s continued recovery
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Embraer was hit by a double whammy before and during COVID. The non-closure of the merger of Boeing’s and Embraer’s Commercial Aircraft Divisions and the halving of its E-Jet deliveries during COVID. The year that passed marked the recovery from the extra cost and effort of the non-merger and an increase in E-Jet deliveries and orders.
It was also a progress year for the EVE eVTOL venture, with Embraer finalizing design and starting prototype production. Despite the EVE lagging behind other programs by about a year, the customers believe it’s one the most viable programs. Eve doubles the preorders of the nearest competitors.
The past year will also be seen as the break-trough year for the KC-390, Embraer’s bet to replace the venerable Lockheed-Martin C-130 military airlifter. The customer list went from three to five, with more country air forces in serious negotiations for the KC-390.
Summary:
- The E-Jets are trending back to normal volumes with better margins.
- EVE is the best-selling eVTOL, as operators trust Embraer’s knowledge and support.
- The KC-390 is on its way to capture a big slice of the C-130 Hercules replacement marker.