Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 6.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 17, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
We used our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to understand the data for the typical missions for the Joby S4 and Archer Midnight VTOLs and how the economics pans out for these missions. We now look at the results and compare them to what’s been projected from the OEMs.
Figure 1. The Joby S4 VTOL. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- We found the VTOL OEM’s economics for the typical 10-minute shuttle flights optimistic.
- When we go back and look at investor deck projections, the cost comparison to helicopter costs were totally off the mark. When we correct this the VTOL is more expensive to operate then an equivalent helicopter.
Pontifications: Off the beaten path museums
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2023, © Leeham News: If you’re in the Puget Sound area (the greater Seattle-Tacoma region) and want to see some well-preserved airplanes that are off the beaten path, take a run down to the McChord Air Force Base south of Tacoma.
McChord was created before World War II. Through the decades, it’s been a fighter, bomber, transport, tactical and strategic base. Today, it’s home to only the Boeing C-17 cargo transport. Refueling tankers are inland at Fairchild AFB near Spokane (WA). Fighters are no longer at McChord; they are stationed at an air base near Portland (OR). (This is why I think McChord should be “BRACed” (declared surplus) and turned over for civilian use as a commercial airport, but this is another topic.)
Douglas C-124 on display at McChord Air Force Base, Tacoma (WA). Credit: Leeham News.
I visited McChord last week to see its museum and its aircraft static displays. The museum is a small building with artifacts, models, photographs and history. As museums go, I’ve seen better, but there’s interesting information here that serves as a good introduction to the air park (called Heritage Hill) where 16 aircraft are located.
Embraer 2nd Quarter 2023 results show a positive trend
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 2Q2023 results today. Commercial aircraft deliveries increased to 24 E-jets jets for 1H2023 compared with 17 E-jets in 1H2022, and Executive jets delivered 38 jets (29) in the period.
Revenue for the group increased by 24% to $2,009m ($1,620m) for the half year. The Services side increased revenue by 12.7% to $666m ($591m). The Defense revenue was 7.7% down at $180m($195m).
Half-year EBIT was $21m (-$263). The company retained the 2023 guidance, which means delivering 65-70 E-jets and 120-130 Executive jets during 2023.
United selects GEnx for order for 100 787s
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2023, © Leeham News: United Airlines quietly selected GE engines for its order in December last year for 100 Boeing 787-9s, according to Boeing’s website. The order isn’t finalized and neither GE nor United would comment.
There had been speculation that UAL might order Rolls-Royce engines as a mitigation for cancelling 45 Airbus A350-900s, which is powered exclusively by RR. United repeatedly deferred delivery of the A350s, which were ordered by previous managements. United inherited a large order for 787s when it merged with Continental Airlines and placed repeat orders for the 787 after the merger. The A350s essentially are duplicative to the 787s.
United placed large orders for the Airbus A321neo at a time when Boeing at first dithered whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft. UAL added to the neo order during the time when Boeing was unable to pursue any new airplane program due to the extended grounding of the MAX and during the COVID pandemic.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 25. Efficient development
August 11, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We have described a number of technological advances that can be used to make the next-generation airliners more efficient and, thus, more environmentally friendly.
Part of developing more efficient next-generation aircraft is to change the development process to be more efficient. The last Boeing aircraft, the 787, took 7.5 years from launch to entry into service, and Airbus A350 took 8.5 years.
The target is to reduce this by up to 50%, but how?
Figure 1. The Airbus A350 development schedule. Source: Airbus.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 10, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. We go through the different cost factors for a VTOL, add them up, and compare them with the industries’ projections.
Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
· The VTOL OEMs state their economics for 10-minute shuttle flights while claiming the VTOL can also fly flights four times longer.
· Yes, the VTOLs can indeed fly these longer flights, but then the economics fall apart.
Boeing reveals sub-type orders for MAX, 777X for the first time
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing yesterday revealed the orders for sub-types for the 737 MAX and 777X, the first time it has done so publicly.
The Seattle Times first reported the MAX detail.
The MAX data is largely similar to LNA’s estimates over the years, in which we analyzed the backlog, including Unidentified customers, to percentages. When the MAX 10 was program was launched, customers who ordered the MAX 8 or MAX 9 switched some of these to the MAX 10. Others have done so since then.
MAX orders remain concentrated around the MAX 8 and the high-capacity MAX 8 200, also known as the MAX 8200. Seventy-one percent of the MAX orders in backlog are for these two aircraft types. In contrast, 62% of the Airbus A320neo family backlog is for the largest model, the A321neo. Boeing’s direct competitor to the A321neo, the MAX 10, represents 19% of the MAX backlog.
The MAX 7 and MAX 10 have yet to be certified. Only the A321XLR remains to be certified of all the A320neo family variants.
Pontifications: Freighter outlook for the next 20 years
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2023, © Leeham News: The cargo conversion market faces the prospect of oversupply of certain types, the consulting firm IBA said last week in a webcast.
The aftermarket conversion of Boeing 737-800s is already at 60 this year, according to IBA’s estimate.
Figure 1.
The forecast doesn’t extend beyond this year—and therefore is incomplete. IBA notes that the Airbus A321 P2F supply is a fraction of the 737-800 conversions, which are undertaken mainly by Boeing and aeronautical Engineers Inc (AEI). There are more than 100 A320 family conversions orders (all but a handful for the A321) that will be coming on line in future years.
Figure 2.
Likewise, IBA’s forecast for widebody conversions doesn’t extend beyond this year. There are also more than 100 orders for Airbus A330ceo conversions (all but a handful for the A330-300). Figure 2, like Figure 1, paints an incomplete picture.
Spirit Aero losses, cash burn continue
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 7, 2023, © Leeham News: Spirit AeroSystems reported another loss-making quarter last week as more special charges in Airbus and Boeing programs.
Spirit is a major supplier to Airbus and Boeing. Airbus receives A350 fuselage panels, some A320 wing components and the A220 wings from Spirit. Boeing receives entire 737 fuselages and the nose sections for the 767/KC-46A, 777 and 787 from Spirit.
Spirit accumulated more than $2.8bn in operating losses and more than $3.5bn in net losses since 2019, the last full year before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The global fleet of 737 MAXes was grounded in March 2019 following two fatal accidents five months apart. Production of the 737 was suspended in the fall of 2019. Deliveries resumed 21 months later.
Deliveries of the 787 were suspended in October 2020 after Boeing discovered tiny gaps in the fuselage joins on aircraft and other, unrelated issues. One of the gap problems—no bigger than the thickness of a piece of paper—was traced to Spirit.
Quality control problems with 737 fuselages were discovered last year and with the vertical fin this year. All Boeing events resulted in charges.
A supplier in the A220 wing program declared bankruptcy and ceased operations, resulting in a charge. Charges were also taken in the A350 program as production was cut during the pandemic.
Airbus and Boeing advanced hundreds of millions of dollars to Spirit to help keep the company afloat. Spirit refinanced $900m in debt last year at an interest rate of 9 3/8%, at the time an above-market rate that indicates the risk factor banks view Spirit.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 24. Single or dual aisle fuselage?
By Bjorn Fehrm.
August 4, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary article to Part 24P. Single or dual aisle fuselage. It summarizes the drag and weight simulations we have done on fuselages for the next generation Heart of the Market airliners. When it comes to drag and weight for a 250-seat airliner that shall replace today’s Single Aisle, is a Single Aisle fuselage lower in drag and weight than a Dual Aisle fuselage?
Figure 1. The drag components of a Single Aisle airliner at 35kft and M0.78. Source; Leeham Co.