Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
More on MAX: Aspire Aviation does long analysis
Aspire Aviation in Hong Kong has done a long analysis on the Boeing 737 MAX, capturing what Boeing has said recently along with original information and data from other sources. This article may be found here.
Meantime, the image below is from Randy Tinseth’s blog and neatly illustrates points made by John Hamilton, the chief 737 program engineer, during his recent conference call with media.
Airbus has a different view, as we extensively reported here.
The MAX is still being defined, as Boeing will readily admit, but it is showing customers specifications. Boeing is not yet ready to write performance guarantees because the specifications aren’t firmed up yet. Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, was quoted at the Dubai Air Show saying he hopes to firm up the first contract perhaps by year end or early into the new year. We believe this would likely be American Airlines, the first customer for the MAX (but not the launch operator).
A350 EIS delayed from 2H2013 to 1H2014
EADS announced today (Thursday in France, Wednesday night in Seattle) what many of us have been expecting for some time: the entry-into-service (EIS) of the A350-900 will slip into 2014 from late 2013.
“Maturity of the A350 XWB main components at Final Assembly start remains one of the Group’s top priorities. Start of Final Assembly is now scheduled for Q1 2012 and Entry-into-Service is now scheduled for H1 2014,” EADS said in its earnings release. As a result of the delay, EADS is taking a 200m Euro charge.
The program has had several creeping delays, slipping from an EIS of the first half of 2013 to the second half of the year, with very few deliveries listed in the Ascend data base–just five, starting with launch customer Qatar Airways.
We previously opined that we thought the first delivery would slip into the first half of 2014.
Each delay of the A350 program and the individual models allows Boeing to recover some breathing room on the 787 program and to develop the 787-9. The delay of the A350-1000 greatly benefits Boeing as it decides what to do with the future of the 777, through minor or major enhancements, at a time when cash flow continues to be constrained by the 787 and 747-8 programs and development of the 737 MAX.
The news comes just in advance of the Dubai Air Show, where Boeing is expected to announce a number of 777 orders from Emirates Airlines and possibly other carriers. Assembly of the 1,000th 777–for Emirates–began November 9 in Everett (WA).
Airbus also terminated the A340 program, it was announced in the EADS earnings release.
AirInsight takes a close look at the GTF, CFM LEAP
AirInsight’s Ernie Arvai has a long analysis of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan and CFM LEAP engine.
It is very detailed, and involves information obtained from both companies.
737 MAX vs A320neo: the debate continues
During yesterday’s tele-press conference by Boeing with a program update for the 737 MAX, 737 chief program engineer John Hamilton frequently said the MAX has a 7% operating cost advantage over the A320neo.
He also touted the advantages of the 737-900ER over the A321, with the obvious implications that the 737-9 MAX will have an advantage over the A321neo.
Here is a recap by the Puget Sound Business Journal (there are many others which may be found through Google News).
AirInsight, our affiliate, has written several pieces of the 737NG and 737 MAX vs the A320 family, both legacy and NEO.
See the following articles for additional color on this debate.
737 MAX ‘commitments’ and what these mean
Note: As a follow up to our previous post about the 787 break-even, Blog by Javier added a third post to simplify his very detailed analysis. You may jump to the link here.
Also: AirInsight has this commentary on the MAX.
Boeing today (Nov. 3) announced it now has more than 600 commitments for the 737 MAX, as well as confirming the 68 inch fan selection and discussed some other issues related to MAX.
Our immediately preceding post synopsized Jim Albaugh’s presentation to Goldman Sachs. Shortly after this, Boeing offered up to the media a tele-press conference with John Hamilton, 737 chief program engineer, to update the status.
One of the things he also referred to was the 600+ commitments by eight airlines for the MAX. Based on questions from the media, focusing on when “commitments” become “orders,” we thought it might be useful for the Reader to discuss this.
Albaugh announces more than 600 commitments for 737 MAX
At an appearance with Goldman Sachs today, Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, announced there are now more than 600 commitments for the 737 MAX.
- Announced what we reported weeks ago: Boeing selected 68 inch fan for CFM Leap 1B. Also talking to CFM about a custom core for the engine.
- Striving for an EIS earlier date than 2017.
- Doesn’t want team to use “simple” and “re-engine” in the same sentence, but wants to minimize changes.
Boeing slide from Goldman Sachs investors’ conference Nov. 3, 2011
- I want to be more responsive to customers we have [by increasing rate]. We drive customers to competitors if we don’t have availability.
- We certainly over-promised and under-delivered on 787. The composites are coming together very well. I’m not going to tell you getting up to rate won’t be a challenge. Biggest challenge is in Charleston. It’s month-by-month. I see a very detailed dashboard on supply chain.
- We have brought a lot of 787 work back in-house. We have 500 engineers who have nothing to do but to drill down…and manage our suppliers as if they were in our factory.
- Final assembly won’t be in quite three days, as originally promoted. But we are pleased we now own Charleston because we have control over it. If we didn’t we wouldn’t be as far along as we are today.
- I’d be getting ahead of myself if we are going to do the Dash-10, but I think we will. It won’t have the range but it will have the value.