Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
More 787 cancellations likely: Boeing, UBS
Boeing sees more 787 cancellations following the one by China Eastern Airlines for 24 aircraft, according to this news article.
In light of the CEA cancellation due to delays, UBS aerospace analyst David Stauss re-issued his May report in which his team concludes 46 787 customers net over-ordered 500 aircraft of all wide-body types and predicted then that more 787s would be canceled than was true at the time.
UBS concluded that 80% of the 787 backlog was ordered for growth and the remainder for replacement.
UBS didn’t specify what wide-body were over-ordered or would be canceled. Cancellations could come from the 787, Airbus A330, Airbus A350 or the Boeing 777 and the Very Large Aircraft from both OEMs.
But UBS’ point is that in its view, more 787 orders are at risk.
PW gains major wins in Rolls-Royce deals
Here are some additional thoughts about the Rolls-Royce/Pratt & Whitney deal announced yesterday.
PW is a real winner in this set of transactions.
- Buying RR out of the International Aero Engines partnership gives PW far more latitude in making deals for the V2500 engines and the ability to connect V2500 transactions to transitions to Geared TurboFan orders. RR had no incentives to make connected deals, since there was nothing in it for them if a customer ordered the GTF instead of the V2500. CFM had the competitive advantage in offering the CFM56 for legacy airplanes and the LEAP for the A320neo. With PW now controlling the V2500 partnership, PW has come closer to leveling the playing field. Read more
Rolls-Royce, PW join forces for 120-230 seat engine–and to focus on GTF technology
It is a stunning announcement. Not so much the buyout of Rolls-Royce by Pratt & Whitney from the International Aero Engines partnership. This has been expected for more than a year.
What’s stunning in the new partnership RR and PW announced to develop engines in the 120-230 seat market and to focus on Geared Turbo Fan technology.
AirInsight has a commentary on the tie-up.
This is a major shift in the engine competition and a major endorsement of the GTF engine and techn0logy, creating a more formidable competitor to the dominate CFM International.
We’ll have more to say after we digest this a bit and talk with the market.
Airbus takes on MAX and says best Boeing can get is 8%
Note: Plane Talking has this detailed story about NEO v MAX.
Over at AirInsight, we have published a long, long piece (some 3,500 words) stemming from a briefing we had at ISTAT Europe in Barcelona about the A320neo vs the 737NG and 737 MAX. The post is here.
Airbus believes Boeing cannot achieve the 10%-12% lower fuel burn it advertises with the smaller fan-diameter CFM LEAP engine. The best Boeing can do, in Airbus’ estimation, is 8%.
Take a read. This is the most detailed product comparison in the public domain yet.
Final thoughts on 787 first delivery
There is a sense of relief that Boeing finally delivered the first 787 this week, after a 3 1/2 year delay and the most painful gestation period in Boeing Commercial Airplane history.
In addition to the actual rain storm on Monday that could not dampen the spirits of the moment, there were many others who nonetheless tried to rain on Boeing’s parade. They pointed out, correctly, that challenges remain for the ramp up in production and Boeing spent billions of dollars on the troubled program.
These and other points are legitimate issues. We chose to let Boeing have its moment in the sun (figuratively speaking, anyway, considering the lousy weather Monday).
Here are our thoughts:
FedEx gets ‘best and final offers’ from Airbus, Boeing
FedEx is considering ordering the Airbus A330-200F or Boeing 767-300F. We learned at ISTAT that some at the company think the A330-200F is too much airplane in terms of range for US domestic service and would prefer the short-range A330-300F capable of carrying more volume. Although some months ago Jon Ostrower broke the story that FDX was talking with Boeing about the 767-400, we learned at ISTAT Boeing said “no.” It is focused on the KC-46A, 767-derived tanker and doesn’t want to take on a program that would divert resources from this effort.
Separately, we learned that Airbus and Boeing submitted their best and final offers last week and a decision–which might include a decision to do nothing–could come as early as this week. Concerns over the economy are spooking FDX, we are told, and there is a faction that favors acquiring more Boeing 757s for conversion and doubling up on frequency if capacity is needed while maintaining the flexibility to cut capacity in a downturn at a lower capital acquisition cost.
If Airbus were to win this order for the A330F, then the prospect of Airbus proceeding with the Mobile (AL) plant is back on the table, we are told.
787 first delivery, Day 2
Here’s more on Boeing’s first delivery of the 787 to launch customer All Nippon Airways.
The first picture illustrates the fancy, new windows in the 787. The manual shade is eliminated in the 787 and the window is dimmed by the passenger or the flight attendant. This photo, taken aboard an ANA 787 Sunday on the sunny ramp at Paine Field, is a dramatic representation of this feature. Photo by yours truly.
Soundbites from 787 delivery
From Scott Fancher, head of the 787 program:
* We’ve developed a set of technologies that will be the backbone of development for the next 30 years.
* This is as big a leap forward as the 707 was.
* 787-9 design is very stable over last couple of years. The weight is down. We will start producing tools next year. We will start producing components next year. (Not structural components.)
* Charleston has been designed to be funbdamentally identical to Everett.
* When we have the data, we will put Charleston and Everett under one quality control system.
* Despite huge costs, we like the investment we made in the 787.
Boeing delivers first 787 to ANA
In a packed room of international media, Boeing announced Sunday that All Nippon Airways executed the contract to accept first delivery of the 787, three and one half years late.
Boeing has a day-long schedule for the media to get briefed on the program and the handover. Ceremonies continue tomorrow and the plane leaves Tuesday for Tokyo.
ANA will take four airplanes this year and 16 next year. By the end of ANA’s fiscal 2017 in March 2013an 2017 (oops-big thumbs on a small Blackberry keyboard) it will receive all 55 on order.
ANA’s airplanes are powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 1000, designed exclusively for the 787.
This is a milestone for Boeing but challenges remain.
The Seattle Times has this report, estimating that Boeing has spent $32bn so far on the 787 program vs a planned $5.8bn.
Challenges Remain
Production ramp up will be a challenge and so will delivery rework. We’ll have further reports over the next two days.
Boeing did Charleston to thwart union: news report, citing Boeing documents
In the first documentation to be revealed, Bloomberg News reports that Boeing did in fact establish the second 787 assembly line in Charleston (SC) to thwart the union–and, from Puget Sound’s perspective, locate the next new airplane in Charleston.
Assuming the Bloomberg reporting is correct in its interpretation–and there is no reason to assume otherwise–this completely belies the Boeing legal response to the NLRB that locating the assembly line in Charleston was all about economic incentives from local authorities.
The IAM 751 blog on the topic is here, bearing in mind that theirs is hardly an objective view.