Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 35. Lilium battery cells.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 2, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 35P, Lilium battery cells.
It discusses the requirement the Lilium jet principle puts on its battery cells and how this is solved, both with a slightly different cell type and with some operational adaptations.
Figure 1. The final Lilium VTOL configuration with 30 jets. Source: Lilium.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 35P. Lilium battery cells. The deeper discussion.
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September 2, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 35, Lilium battery cells. It discusses the requirement the Lilium jet principle puts on its battery cells and how this is solved, both with a modified cell type and with some operational adaptations.
Engine Development. Part 3. The early turbofans.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 1, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the motivation to change from propeller engines to jet engines as higher cruising speeds were sought for airliners.
We learned the straight jet engine, while good for military jets, wasn’t well suited for civil airliners. It was noisy and fuel-thirsty. It was why the subsequent engine development, the turbofan, was quickly accepted by the airlines.
Figure 1. A Boeing 707 with Pratt & Whitney JT3D turbofan engines. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- The first turbofans from Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney, and GE had different designs.
- The advantages of the turbofan over the straight jet were quickly recognized. The turbofan has been the choice for airliners since the late 1950s.
Retrospective: 2011 pros and cons of composite airplanes as Boeing, Airbus look to next 20 years
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By Scott Hamilton
What will the Future Small Airplane look like? Composites, metal, or a combination? Concept Credit: Leeham News.
Aug. 29, 2022, ©Leeham News: Airbus and Qatar Airways are in a nasty court battle over composite degradation on the A350. Lightning strike protection is a major concern in the Qatar lawsuit. Paint begins to strip off composite materials on the A350 and Boeing 787. Building composite airplanes is expensive.
Composites have been on airplanes since the days of the Boeing 727 when the wing-to-body fairings were made of composites. Airbus put composite vertical fins on the A310 and A300-600R. Private airplanes used composites.
But it was the Boeing 787 that became a ground-breaking airliner with its composite wings and composite fuselage. Boeing’s launch of the 787 in December 2003 was what would later be described as a moonshot. It was the first “all” composite airplane. (About 52% by weight was composite.)
It was the first “all-electric” aircraft, meaning all systems were powered by electric energy. Boeing intended that this would be a “snap-together” airplane. Fuselage sections were to be “stuffed” when delivered to the final assembly line in Everett (WA) and “snapped” together, like a prefabricated house. Outsourcing to industrial partners was taken to unprecedented levels at Boeing. (Airbus already largely practiced this for its aircraft.)
Pontifications: Signs point to China OK soon for Boeing deliveries, orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 29, 2022, © Leeham News: The Chinese government appears on a path toward authorizing Boeing to resume deliveries to airlines by or early in the fourth quarter, China watchers tell LNA.
China hasn’t placed new orders for Boeing aircraft, with few exceptions, since then-President Donald Trump initiated a trade war with China shortly after taking office in 2017.
Nor has China taken delivery of more than single-digit numbers since 2019, following the grounding of the 737 MAX in March that year. China’s regulator, CAAC, was the first to ground the domestic MAX fleet following the second accident of the type in March 2019, five months after the first accident.
China was the last major regulator to recertify the MAX, in December 2021, following the FAA’s recertification in November 2020. But CAAC has not authorized deliveries. It appeared on the cusp of doing so when last May a China Eastern Airlines 737-800 nose-dived from cruising altitude into the ground, killing all aboard. CAAC ordered China Eastern and its affiliated airlines to ground all 737-800s, a move widely believed to be unwarranted given the circumstances of the crash that tentatively pointed to a cockpit-controlled dive. Later investigation largely confirmed this, though no accident report has been released yet.
Because of the crash, CAAC withheld authorization for Boeing to resume deliveries of the MAX. Geopolitical considerations also are believed to have played a role as tensions between the Washington and Beijing continued over the unresolved trade war, China’s straddling sides in the Russian-Ukraine War, and visits by members of the US Congress visited Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province and objects to political visits by other countries.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 34P. eVTOL battery cells. The deeper discussion.
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August 26, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 34, eVTOL battery cells. It discusses the trickiest system on an eVTOL, the battery system, and its key component, the battery cells.
The Lithium-Ion cells in an eVTOL battery system are the core of the energy supply system. The cells are of a high power and energy type and must be used and managed correctly to last long and be safe.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 34. eVTOL battery cells
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 26, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 34P, eVTOL battery cells. It discusses the main component of the battery system, the battery cell.
The Lithium-Ion cells in an eVTOL battery system are the key components of the energy supply system. The cells are of a high power and energy type and must be used and managed correctly to last long and be safe.
Engine Development. Part 2. The early jet engines.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a series about jet engine development for our air transport aircraft. The jet engine came to replace the piston and gas turbine propeller engines when airplanes sought higher cruising speeds.
In the second part of the series, we look at why the jet engines were developed and their advantages and disadvantages compared to what they replaced.
De Havilland Comet, the first jet airliner. Source; Wikipedia.
Summary
- When the propeller engine came to its speed limits, the straight jet engine was the answer.
- While it helped with speed, it created other problems.
Orders at Risk: Summer 2022 Snapshot
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: The ink has now dried on the orders signed at the 2022 Farnborough Air Show. Boeing announced more orders than Airbus, mainly because of a sold-out A320 production line well into the future. Airbus also announced orders shortly before and after the Air Show.
Credit: Airbus
Airbus and Boeing also disclosed their second quarter of 2022 earnings and July orders and deliveries, the first post-Farnborough update. OEMs are more likely to reassess the quality of their order books before disclosing future earnings.
Airbus and Boeing have outstanding orders with airlines where there is a material probability some orders won’t translate into deliveries. Most were the result of airlines encountering financial difficulties, but some were related to contractual disputes. Boeing flags such orders as subject to an ASC 606 accounting rule adjustment.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule like the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed July 2020, November 2020, August 2021, and February 2022 Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We update this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs. The above links explain our methodology and its differences with Boeing’s ASC 606 adjustments.
Summary
- Lingering order book cleanup for older programs;
- The Boeing-China factor;
- A healthier single-aisle Boeing order book;
- Updates on the A330neo and large twin-aisle aircraft order books;
- One aircraft variant stands out.
Pontifications: Heros and a thriller–two book reviews
Fly Boy Heroes, The Story of the Medal of Honor Recipients of the Air War Against Japan
By James H. Hallas. Stackpole Books, $29.95.
The First Counterspy
By Kay Haas and Walter W. Pickut. Lyons Press, $29.95.
Aug. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Two books from my summer reading aren’t about commercial aviation but will be interesting to the broader aviation community.
These are Fly Boy Heroes, The Story of the Medal of Honor Recipients of the Air War Against Japan, and The First Counterspy.
Fly Boy chronicles short stories about the US Medal of Recipients who flew against Japan in the Second World War. Author James Hallas begins with the Japanese air raid on Pearl Harbor and ends with an April 12, 1945, Boeing B-29 raid on Japan. In between, the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in April 1942, the Battle of the Coral Sea, Midway (the outgrowth of the Doolittle Raid), and other combat missions are recounted. The Medal of Honor recipients of these battles are, as the book’s title suggests, the flyboys whose above-and-beyond exploits earned them the Medal. Not all survived their missions, but some did. For those who did, not all had happily ever after endings late in the war or in civilian life.
Being a Chicago area native, I knew that O’Hare International Airport was named after Lt. Commander Edward O’Hare, more commonly known as “Butch.” I also knew, though few others today might, that Butch was the son of Chicago mobster Edgar J. O’Hare, or E. J. E.J. was a lawyer for Al Capone and testified at Capone’s tax evasion trial that sent the mobster to Alcatraz. For his troubles, E.J. was murdered in 1939.