Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
ZeroM, Airbus’ effort to reduce traveled work
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: Traveled work is the bane of any airplane manufacturer’s production line.
“Traveled work” is when parts are unavailable when the plane is in final assembly. To keep production moving, the manufacturer—whether it’s Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, or some other firm—notes the missing item and continues production. The airplane is rolled off the line and the work is finished on the ramp when the part becomes available.
Jurgen Westermeier, Airbus Chief Procurement Officer. Credit: Airbus.
The OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) approach the issue differently. Some prefer the parts to arrive “just in time,” which keeps inventory to a minimum. This reduces cash outflow.
But just in time creates the problem of missing parts. One time, Airbus was assembling A320s, and USB ports failed to arrive while planes were on the assembly line. The ports had to be installed later—traveled work.
Another option is to create an inventory. But to minimize the cash commitment, and the space taken up by inventory, the OEMs limit the supply. Airbus, for example, has a “buffer” of between a few weeks and a few months, depending on the parts.
Airbus also attacks the challenge with a program called ZeroM. LNA met last month with Airbus’ chief procurement officer (CPO), Jurgen Westermeier, on the sidelines of the Aviation Forum in Hamburg. He explained ZeroM and how it works. Below is a transcript of our meeting. It has been edited for clarity and space.
Airbus posts record orders in 2023, meets delivery target despite challenges
By Tom Batchelor
January 11, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus exceeded its target for aircraft deliveries last year and achieved a record number of orders despite what it called a “complex” and “volatile” operating environment, according to the company’s newly released 2023 order and delivery data.
The European planemaker delivered 735 commercial aircraft to 87 customers in 2023, versus 661 commercial aircraft to 84 customers the previous year – an increase of 11%, Figure 1.
Figure 1. A visualization of Airbus orders, deliveries, and backlog in 2023. Click to enlarge. Source: Airbus.
That was above the Airbus target of 720 commercial aircraft deliveries over the 12 months.
Of the 735 deliveries, 68 were from the A220 family, 571 were from the A320 family, 32 were from the A330 family and 64 were A350 family aircraft. Compared with the previous year, A330 and A350 family deliveries were broadly flat, while A220 and A320 family deliveries were significantly higher.
A321 deliveries accounted for 56% of A320 family deliveries. Airbus confirmed the latest variant in that family, the A321XLR, has reached the latter part of flight testing with the first delivery expected in Q2 2024.
The commercial aircraft business registered 2,319 gross new orders (2,094 net after cancellations), putting its 2023 year-end backlog at 8,598 aircraft. This was the first time Airbus has topped 2,000 net orders in a year.
The figure was a sharp increase versus 2022, when there were 1,078 gross commercial orders (820 net), and 7,239 aircraft in the backlog.
For comparison, Boeing data shows it delivered 528 aircraft in 2023 and received 1,456 gross new orders (1,314 net).
Managing supply chain stress continues
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic impact on aerospace and its supply chain was deep and long lasting. The airframe and engine manufacturers haven’t fully recovered. Part of the reason is that the supply chain hasn’t fully recovered, either.
LNA attended the Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, last month. On the sidelines of the event, we met with Jurgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer for Airbus. We discussed the supply chain and other issues. The following is a transcript of this interview. It has been edited for space and clarity.
Related Story:
JAL A350 ground collision is first hull loss by damage and fire of an all-composite airplane
Jan. 2, 2024, (c) Leeham News: Editor’s Note: With the ground collision (Jan. 2, 2024, Tokyo time) of a Japan Air Lines Airbus A350 and its destruction by fire, we’re reposting this article from March 2009. It was then that Boeing was in early production of the 787 and the Federal Aviation Administration was studying what Special Conditions to require in the event of a fire on a composite passenger airliner. The 787 was the first all-composite airliner and how composite of this scale would react in a fire was then mostly known. The only all-composite, large airplane fire had been that of the B-2 Stealth bomber.
Video via Times of London.
LNA spoke with airport fire officials about preparing for a composite airliner fire and we discussed the challenges the US Air Force had in putting out the B-2 fire. Fires occurred on two 787s after entry into service: a JAL aircraft that was parked at the Boston airport after a flight from Tokyo and an Ethiopian 787 parked in London. The JAL fire was traced to a battery. Airport firefighters faced challenges in putting out the fire. The airplane was heavily damaged but repaired. The Ethiopian 787 fire was traced to pinched wires creating a short at the emergency transmitter locator in the top of the fuselage. The plane was heavily damaged but repaired. The JAL A350 is the first hull loss of a composite airliner and the first by fire.
Investigators will learn all kinds of lessons from the A350 accident.
All passengers and crew on the A350 escaped. The five crew on the Japanese Coast Guard airplane involved in the collision died.
The March article is below.
Outlook 2024: Expectations growing at Airbus
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By Gordon Smith
January 2, 2024, © Leeham News: Many businesses start to wind down operations as the holiday season approaches – but for the big OEMs, the year-end usually means a sprint finish. Airbus is no exception.
Speaking to investors in early November, CEO Guillaume Faury reconfirmed the company’s earnings target for 2023 and sounded optimistic about the prospect of meeting its delivery goal of “around 720” aircraft for the calendar year: “We think we are well-placed to deliver around 161 planes to fulfill the guidance. For those deliveries, we obviously have a high degree of visibility on parts, including engines,” he said.
Although the official tally for 2023 is not likely to be published until next week, the latest figures from November offer valuable insight into progress towards the goal. In a December 5 update, the OEM revealed that it delivered 64 aircraft during the previous month, bringing the year-to-date total to 623 examples. This left 97 units to be handed over before the start of 2024.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 42. Improving the learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 15, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at the production phase.
Last week, we discussed why production costs vary over time and why they can be up to 500% higher for the first units than for units past 400 to 500 aircraft produced. Now we go deeper into the reasons behind this and what can be done to improve the situation.
Figure 1. The program plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Collaboration is key with supply chain, says Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: The aerospace supply chain still hasn’t fully recovered the COVID-19 pandemic. All aerospace manufacturers are affected, as are the supplier to the suppliers.
At the annual Aviation Forum last week in Hamburg, Germany, Airbus said collaboration is one of the keys to recovery.
Jurgen Westermeier. Credit: Airbus.
Jürgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer (CPO) at Airbus, said “unlocking the power of collaboration” means “great things happen when we work together.
“This has been illustrated in the past, when we had to face a situation of crisis together. In the past, in the face of a crisis, collaboration has been key,” Westermeier said.
There have been first-hand a series of successive crises which radically reshaped the aerospace sector. “Be it in an unprecedented global pandemic, geopolitical events, the likes the world hasn’t seen in a long time, and a climate emergency that no one can ignore anymore. Several suppliers entered the COVID period with weak financials.”
In addition, the CPO said, there has been high inflation, increasing energy prices, rising labor costs, and bank interests that are putting the ability of certain categories of suppliers at risk. “Airbus developed over the years several collaborative tools designed to better manage the crisis together. First, the Supplier Financial Watchtower,” Westermeier said. “This allows Airbus to monitor the financial health of its supply chain and identify potential issues. We are then able to deep dive into specific situations to understand the risk at stake, and if necessary, co-develop a mitigation plan with the supplier concerned. Not only does this approach ensure we can support our supplier in securing a planned ramp-up, but it also allows us to develop a sense of community.”
Airbus: Global services sector to double by 2042
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By Gordon Smith
December 4, 2023, © Leeham News: If the last decade taught us anything, it’s just how challenging it is to make accurate forecasts. While this is true of almost all industries, few are as difficult to predict as aerospace. It can feel like a feat to quantify the immense number of variables involved, never mind establishing what they actually mean.
So credit where it is due to Airbus, which has published its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) for the coming two decades.
The headlines are eye-catching. The European firm believes the value of the commercial aircraft services market will double by 2042 to $255bn. Driven by soaring traffic demand and technological developments, the sector will require millions more staff than it has today and thousands of new aircraft.
Summary
- The services market is supporting more than 24,000 aircraft globally this year, valued at approximately $130bn – up 46% on 2022 as the post-pandemic recovery reaches a crescendo
- This figure is due to reach $180bn by 2030 and $255bn by 2042, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 3.6%
- Aircraft maintenance will comprise 80% of the market by 2042, valued at $210bn, with ‘aircraft enhancement’ estimated at $28bn, and training and operations generating $17bn
- Connected aircraft is a key trend, with Airbus forecasting that more than 44,000 airplanes will form part of a ‘connectivity ecosystem’ by 2042, with significant passenger benefits and operational efficiencies
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.
Preview of Rolls-Royce Capital Markets Day
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s Capital Market Day is tomorrow. “Our multi-year transformation programme will deliver a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. Join us to find out how we are going to do it and what a stronger Rolls-Royce will mean for all our stakeholders,” the company says on its website.
“Our multi-year transformation programme has started well with progress already evident in our strong initial results and increased full-year guidance for 2023. There is much more to do to deliver better performance and to transform Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. We will share the outcome of our strategy review along with medium-term goals for the Group in November,” said CEO Tufan Erginbilgic on its website.
It has some other questions to answer, too.
An order for Airbus A350-1000s was expected to be announced at the Dubai Air Show by Emirates Airline. Another order, for a combination of A350-900s, -1000s, and A320neo, was expected from Turkish Airlines. Neither materialized—and, LNA is told, issues with the Trent XWB 97 were one reason.