Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Figuring seat counts A320 v 737 families
Airbus and Boeing use different seating assumptions when comparing each others’ airplanes. As one of the charts in a previous post shows, Boeing’s assumptions tend to favor Boeing. Airbus assigns more seats to its airplanes than does Boeing and fewer seats to the Boeing airplanes.
Below is a chart of “real” configurations and the average. This data is from Seatguru.com. Several airlines have multiple configurations and we’ve averaged them for purposes of this table.
We were surprised by the low average of the 737-900/900ER but the sampling is small and Turkish skews it. Eliminating Turkish gives an average of 170 seats for the 737-900(ER).
If you eliminate American Airlines for the A321 (102 seats is correct), the A321 average is 189.
| A320 | A321 | 737-800 | 737-900 | ||
| Airbus Assumption | 153 | 189 | 157 | 175 | |
| Boeing Assumption | 150 | 183 | 162 | 180 | |
| Actual Configurations | |||||
| 1 | Aeromexico | 160 | |||
| 2 | Air China | 158 | 185 | 163 | |
| 3 | Air New Zealand | 169 | |||
| 4 | AirAsia | 170 | |||
| 5 | AirBerlin | 210 | 180 | ||
| 6 | AirCanada | 146 | 175 | ||
| 7 | Alaska | 158 | 176 | ||
| 8 | American | 102 | 154 | ||
| 9 | Asiana | 143 | |||
| 10 | British Air | 157 | 186 | ||
| 11 | Delta | 150 | 160 | ||
| 12 | Lufthansa | 150 | 190 | ||
| 13 | Malaysia | 163 | |||
| 14 | Ryanair | 189 | |||
| 15 | SAS | 198 | 186 | ||
| 16 | Southwest | 175 | |||
| 17 | Turkish | 143 | 180 | 157 | 151 |
| 18 | United | 141 | 156 | 170 | |
| 19 | US Airways | 150 | 187 | ||
| 20 | Virgin America | 143 | |||
| Average | 152 | 179 | 167 | 166 | |
Airbus v Boeing on wide bodies
Airbus and Boeing don’t confine their comparisons to the A320 v 737. They are equally forthcoming in discussing the wide-body strategies.
The pre-Paris Air Show briefings included contrasts in how Airbus and Boeing see the wide-body strategies.
Airbus views the product line-up this way:
Boeing views the product line up this week. We added the seat gap counts and arrows, because Boeing appears to use a slightly higher seat gap count for the A380 than does Airbus vis-a-vis the A350. We added the seat gap count between the 777-9X and the 747-8I, based on Boeing’s publicly stated assumed seat counts.
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In these examples, we favor the Boeing view (though with the Airbus A380 seat count) as to the market gaps. We do not see the A350-1000 competing with the 777-9X.
737NG-to-MAX production Plans and comparing the 737 with the A320/321
Boeing is gearing up for the transition from the 737 Next Generation to the 737 MAX at its Renton plant in Washington State.
During pre-Paris Air Show briefings at Boeing last month, embargoed until today, Boeing officials detailed how they will transition the production facility in a continuous flow. When Boeing introduced the 737NG, sales of the 737 Classic were terminated. Boeing expects a two year transition period this time, meaning the NG will continue production 2019, two years after the 737-8 MAX first enters service.
The exception will be the P-8A assembly line, which is based on the 737NG and which is in the so-called “saw tooth” building to the west of the primary 737 assembly plant. The saw tooth building is seen at the far right of this Boeing illustration.
The primary plant above shows the current NG assembly lines to the left and right. The line on the left produces 21 737s a month and the one on the right will be at this rate next year. The line in the center will initially be the MAX transition line, where the test aircraft will be assembled and the workforce learns the differences between assembling the NG and the MAX, which will have substantial differences compared with the NG.
Eventually, the MAX will fully integrate on the two NG lines.
At previous air show briefings, Beverly Wyse VP and GM of 737 Program, said the center line will have the capacity to match the assembly rates of the other two lines, or 21 per month, giving Renton the capacity to produce 63 737s a month.
At last month’s briefing, Wyse displayed this chart that suggests production rates will maintain at 42/mo from implementation next year.
However, we know from our own market intelligence that Boeing is considering sharply higher rates by the end of the decade.
Wyse, in the recent briefing, said the workforce is a key advantage for Boeing with flow-through benefits for Boeing’s customers.
Comparing the 737 and the A320: the story continues
The war of words between Airbus and Boeing continues over the A320 and the 737, with each company boasting its airplanes are better than the competitors.
The competing positions were evident in the pre-Paris Air Show briefings from both companies. The comparisons between the single aisle airplanes were front-and-center again.
We’ve written on several occasions that when Boeing compares the 737 with the Airbus A320, officials credit the 737 with Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs) but except for the sharklets and the neo, does not credit Airbus with any other improvements while listing years of upgrades for the 737.
We’ve been critical of the practice, which continues. We recognize that Airbus and Boeing will put their product in the best light, and Airbus selectively chooses information to promote its airplanes at the expense of Boeing (the A330-300 v the 787-9 being a particularly egregious example we’ve written about in the past.)
We’ve written many pieces that airlines tell us the 737-800 and A320 are within 2% of each other on cash operating costs, favoring the 738.
In the most recent briefings, Boeing displayed the following charts comparing the 737 vs the A320.
Odds and Ends: A350 pressures Boeing for 777X; the future of flight; FAA and 787; “one Boeing”
A350 Pressures Boeing: With the first flight of the Airbus A350 now scheduled for tomorrow (instead of today), Bloomberg News reports that the pressure is increased on Boeing to go forward with the 777X.
The future of flight: Is this what flying will be like in the future?
Congressional hearing on 787: The FAA says its certification system is good and that the 787 is safe.
“One Boeing:” This means the defense and commercial units working together. Aviation Week has this article; we’ll be talking about this more next week.
Odds and Ends: Evolution of the airline logo; Boeing 20 year forecast updated
Airline Logos: Mary Kirby posted this one. A bit off our usual beaten path, but we find this quite interesting. Speaking of airline logos:
We just completed a series of flights on US Airways and asked in-flight and ground personnel what they think of the merger with American Airlines. Granted, the sample was miniscule, but each was enthusiastic about the merger.
We also saw, in person, for the first time the new American paint job and tail livery. It doesn’t look any better in person than in pictures. As we’ve written before, US Airways management, which will run the merger company, is likely to hold an employee contest for a combined companies livery. They did this for US Airways, which proved popular for morale (though personally we were lukewarm to the outcome).
Boeing ups 20 year forecast: The 2013-2032 outlook has been released. Numbers are up slightly. Airbus releases its update in September. Interesting point: The 407 seat 777-9X is placed in the 300-400 seat sector by Boeing rather than the Very Large Aircraft (which begins at 401 seats), reports Reuters on Twitter.
A350 Photos: Nothing new in the story but the photos are pretty cool.