Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The large Twin-Aisle replacements
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 10, 2022, © Leeham News: We looked into the replacement market for the large twin-aisles and freighters in our February 28th article.
The obvious replacements for the market’s large Twin-Ailes are Airbus’ A350-1000, and Boeing’s 777-9, replacing 747s and A380s but more often 777-300ERs.
We compare the 777-300ER to the A350-1000 and 777-9 to understand the driving forces behind such replacements.
Summary
- The choice between Airbus’ A350-1000 and Boeing’s 777-9 as the replacement for the market’s large aircraft will be decided by route passenger volumes and commonality more than any difference in the operating economics of the aircraft.
Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.
By Scott Hamilton
“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.
Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.
Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)
Replacement opportunities for older-generation single-aisle operators
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Several airlines announced orders for new-generation single-aisle aircraft in recent months. Air France – KLM and jet2.com announced Airbus A320neo family orders, while Allegiant and Qatar announced Boeing 737 MAX deals. SmartLynx, a Latvian ACMI carrier, will operate 737 MAXes on operating leases from SMBC Aviation Capital.
Credit: Allegiant Airlines
Despite the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are eager to order newer-generation single-aisle aircraft to improve their environmental footprint and secure delivery slots, notably on the A320 production line. The low level of interest rates by historical standards also facilitates those transactions.
(This analysis does not include the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the full impacts of which to commercial aviation are still in the future.)
Such orders represent once-in-a-generation opportunities for OEMs to “flip” an airline away from the other one.
Many airlines operate A320ceos or 737 NGs but have not yet ordered new-generation single-aisle aircraft. LNA analyses this population.
Summary
- Breaking down the population into four categories;
- Airlines unlikely to place orders in the near term;
- Two types of potential customers.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.
HOTR: Airbus responds to Qatar lawsuit; (Update): Boeing statement on Russia-Ukraine
By the Leeham News Team
Feb. 28, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus last Friday filed its answer to the lawsuit filed by Qatar Airways over the A350 paint issues. Qatar claims 21 A350s have defective paint issues that lead to safety concerns for lightning protection. Qatar’s national regulator grounded the airplanes.
The manufacturer replies in its answer that it believes the regulator acted at the airline’s request, which Airbus believes was motivated by economic reasons rather than safety issues.
Airbus also said that the paint stripping of the A350 intended for repainting was improperly done and deviated from Airbus’ procedures outlined in its manuals.
Pontifications: Ukraine impact on commercial aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 28, 2022, © Leeham News: The clouds are very dark over Ukraine today. The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by an international autocratic lying amoral thug is horrible. What the implications are for neighboring European countries, the greater Europe, the US, and the rest of the world won’t be fully understood for months.
But reality is reality, and LNA’s focus on commercial aviation must look at things from this perspective—narrow as it is in the context of human tolls underway in Ukraine now. In the dark cloud of the Ukraine crisis, we must look at what the impacts might be on commercial aviation.
HOTR: Putin can shut down commercial aviation, consultant warned
Feb. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The invasion by Russia into Ukraine could shut down commercial aviation production, a supply chain consultant expert predicted earlier this month.
Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a supply-chain consulting firm, warned at a supplier conference Feb. 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin “could shut down the commercial aerospace business if he chose to do so.”
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The CEO of Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA), Stan Deal, said at the Singapore Air show the company worked on increased gross weight versions of both the 787-9 and -10.
Target is to get the 787-10 to the range of the aircraft it shall replace, the 777-200ER and -300ER. It means more than 7,000nm of range against the 6,400nm of today.
How many tonnes of increased Gross weight does this mean, and what would be the performance compared with the Airbus A350-900? We use our airliner performance model to find out.
Summary
- The 787-10 can grow to a range of over 7,000nm with a modest increase of its gross weight.
- It will be competitive with the A350-900 but for the longest routes in such a variant.
Pontifications: Advice for Boeing in the coming KC-Y campaign
Part 6: The KC-X competition from Boeing’s perspective
By Scott Hamilton
Feb 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Jim Albaugh, the former president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and of Boeing’s defense unit, retired from the company in 2012. He oversaw the first competitive bid at the defense unit for the US Air Force KC-X refueling tanker. That was lost to Northrop Grumman-EADS (Airbus) in 2009.
As CEO of BCA, he oversaw commercial efforts to get Boeing’s cost down on the 767-200ER, which formed the basis for what became the KC-46A tanker. Defense won this round against a solo EADS bid. Boeing’s winning price was about 10% below the EADS bid for its A330-based MRTT.
Years removed from Boeing but nevertheless an interested observer with experience on the losing and winning bids, Albaugh has some observations and advice as Boeing prepared to compete against Lockheed Martin-Airbus for the KC-Y campaign that already has unofficially begun.
Cross-defaults led to Airbus cancellation of Qatar A321neo order
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 18, 2022, © Leeham News: Qatar Airways was in default of its Airbus contracts, allowing the OEM to cancel the orders for two A350-1000s and 50 A321neos, say people familiar with how these things work.
In a court filing last month, Airbus directly made this assertion.
The moves by Airbus over several weeks to cancel the orders from a major customer that is not in financial distress is unheard of.
Qatar and Airbus are embroiled in a very public dispute over flaking paint on A350s owned by Qatar that now is the subject of lawsuits in a London court. The airline seeks nearly $700m in damages. Qatar claims the flaking paint is a safety issue, backed by the government regulator that grounded 23 A350s. Airbus, and its governing regulator, EASA, say no safety issue is at stake.
Airbus offered to repaint the airplanes and provide compensation, say people familiar with the situation. The compensation was unacceptable to Qatar Airways, they say.