Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Emirates seeks larger A350, 777 after big Dubai order
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing landed a big order for its 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show last week, valued at $38bn at list prices for 65 airplanes ($575.8m each). Emirates Airline, already Boeing’s largest customer for the airplane, now has 270 777Xs on order. This represents 43% of the firm orders once added to Boeing’s backlog.
Rendering of an Emirates Airline Boeing 777-9. Credit: Boeing.
Emirates simultaneously said it will support a feasibility study to stretch the 777-9 to a larger capacity 777-10. Airline president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to launch the larger derivative.
Also at the air show, Airbus Commercial airplanes CEO Christian Scherer said Airbus is revisiting a study whether to stretch the A350-1000 (the same size as the Boeing 777-300ER) to a larger “A350-2000” model. This would be the same size as the 777-9.
However, don’t look for Airbus to launch a stretch any time soon, if at all. Airbus previously studied stretching the -1000 and decided the market couldn’t support two airplanes the size of the 777-9. Furthermore, the best target market for these aircraft—the Middle East—already accounts for about 63% of 777X orders before the latest Emirates deal, highly limiting the market potential for an X competitor.
Flydubai orders 737 MAX, in addition to A320neos, at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday flydubai ordered the 150 Airbus A320neo family at the Dubai Air Show. Today, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes and options for 75 more. Flydubai may switch its orders between the 737-8, -9 or -10. The airline already operates the 737 NG and 737 MAX.
Emirates Airline placed an order for eight more Airbus A350-900s, bringing its total order to 73. The list price is $3.4bn for the new deal, or an average of $422m per aircraft.
Buraq Air of Libya signed an MOU for 10 A320neo family aircraft. It becomes a new Airbus customer.
Silk Way West Airlines of Azerbaijan ordered two A350Fs freighter aircraft. The cargo airline now has a total order to four A350Fs.
Dubai Air Show, Day 1: Boeing’s 777X; Anticipated orders
Boeing Insists 777X Widebody Is Worth the Wait
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
Charlotte Bailey • Writer
Nov. 16, 2025, © AIN: Twelve years since Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, the OEM is back on-site with both its 777-9 test aircraft and a renewed confidence that delays to the protracted certification schedule are finally over.
With Boeing continuing to steadily work through FAA type inspection authorization (TIA) test phases, head of airline marketing for the 777X Justin Hale has a “high confidence” the airplane will enter service by 2027, with certification forthcoming as soon as 2026, he told reporters during a briefing on the eve of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday.
The full story may be found here.
UPS MD-11F crash, theft of trade secrets lawsuit impacts on cargo market
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: The Nov. 7 UPS MD-11F crash and a new trade theft secret lawsuit are likely to impact the air freighter new sales and conversion markets.
Boeing MD-11Fs of FedEx and UPS were grounded following the Nov. 7 crash of a UPS MD-11. Credit: NBC News.
Boeing recommended grounding MD-11Fs pending inspections of the engines and pylons, a move mandated within a day by the Federal Aviation Administration. The cause of the crash is unknown. The No. 1 engine separated from the widebody cargo airliner on takeoff from the Louisville (KY) airport. The airplane had passed the V1 commitment speed when a fire broke out, and the engine and pylon separated from the airplane.
The cause of the fire and the sequence of separation remain under investigation. More than a dozen people were killed, including the three pilots on the plane and the rest on the ground, when the plane crashed into an industrial park.
A theft of trade secrets lawsuit was filed on Oct. 20 in the US Federal District Court in Oregon by P2F company Precision Aircraft Solutions LLC against Mammoth Freighters, also a P2F conversion company. Precision converted Boeing 757s from passenger to freighter configuration and now converts Airbus A321ceos. Mammoth converts Boeing 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs.
One of the principals of Precision, William Wagner, left Precision and years later co-founded Mammoth. About 20 employees from Precision went to work for Mammoth and, for a time, Precision and Mammoth cooperated on the latter’s process to achieve a Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for its conversions, according to the complaint filed in federal court. Precision alleges that its former employees signed Non-Disclosure Agreements that restricted the use of its trade secrets for the benefit of Mammoth.
The unrelated UPS crash and the lawsuit may have ramifications for the respective segments of the air cargo market.
Boeing breaks ground to double 787 FAL capacity; analysis of orders/options
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By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing on Friday broke ground at its Charleston (SC) 787 production campus for a second final assembly line (FAL) building to meeting growing demand for the airplane.
Boeing’s current footprint in Charleston (SC). (Note the airplane-shaped park in the upper left.) Credit: Boeing.
Boeing has announced more than 300 orders for the 787-9 and 787-10 this year. There are now more than 1,000 787s in backlog. More than 1,200 have been delivered.
There are hundreds of more options for the airplane and even more Letters of Intent.
Boeing will construct a building, left, of 1.2m sf–the size of the Composite Wing Center in Everett (WA), doubling 787 assembly capacity. Credit: Boeing.
Boeing currently is assembling seven aircraft a month at the plant, its peak at this facility before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The Charleston facility then matched the 7/mo also being assembled at Boeing’s Everett plant. Following COVID and the virtual halt in production during much of the two year effects of the pandemic, Boeing consolidated all 787 production in Charleston.
The facility currently has a maximum capacity of 10/mo. CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the 3Q2025 earnings call that that the expansion will double the capacity.
“We’re going to double the…manufacturing footprint. We don’t need double, but it also gives us a lot more flexibility for some storage space as well. We think that the market demand will allow us to get to rates in the teens, and that’s what we’re focused on,” Ortberg said on the call. The plant will open in 2028, according to current planning.
LNA has analyzed Boeing’s current 787 backlog, using the database dated Oct. 7 from Cirium. The database trails Boeing’s website backlog of 1,048 as of Oct. 31, showing a firm order backlog of 997. However, Cirium’s data also shows Boeing’s Options and Letters of Intent. Delivery years are shown in all four categories.
Using this data, LNA plotted the entire delivery stream, extending to 2043.
Despite similarities to other accidents, don’t draw conclusions in UPS accident
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday’s crash of a UPS Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11F evokes memories of American Airlines flight 191 in Chicago and the Air France Concorde crash in Paris.
The moment of impact of a UPS Boeing MD-11F freight that crashed on take-off from the Louisville (KY) airport. Credit: USA Today.
The UPS plane’s No. 1 engine apparently separated from the wing at around V1, the take-off speed, at the Louisville (KY) airport, where UPS’ main US hub is located. This is similar to the engine separation of the No. 1 engine of the American McDonnell Douglas DC-10 at a similar point on its take-off roll at O’Hare Airport. (This was the first aviation accident that I had as a reporter.)
American’s flight did not catch fire on take-off, but the slats on the left wing retracted after the engine damaged the hydraulic lines along the leading edge of the wing. There is a famous aviation picture of the DC-10, with its wings vertical to the ground, missing the engine, seconds before the plane crashed in a trailer park next to the airport. Valves were later added to the DC-10 to prevent such a retraction in the future.
The UPS MD-11, a derivative of the DC-10, did catch fire. So did the Air France Concorde, after running over a part that was on the runway at Charles de Gaulle Airport that fell off a preceding flight (ironically, a Continental Airlines DC-10). The Concorde’s tires threw the part into the wing fuel tank, which ignited. There is a famous picture of the Concorde, committed to take off, aloft on fire.
The UPS flight sequence, captured on multiple videos, is eerily similar to the American and Air France crashes. One video shows the MD-11 with its wings vertical to the ground, as the left wing sliced through a building seconds before impact.
Despite similarities, exercise caution in drawing conclusions.
Boeing 3Q2025: 777X gets new $4.9bn write off as earnings results prove mixed
By Karl Sinclair
Oct. 29, 2025, © Leeham News: The Boeing Company (BA) took another charge in the third quarter, to the tune of $4.9bn, on the struggling 777X program–which has yet to deliver a single aircraft to a customer.
Boeing released its 3Q2025 results, following the positive sentiment surrounding the second-quarter results. Despite posting the first positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since 2023, investors drove shares down nearly 5% by midday.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg placed the blame directly on Boeing’s doorstep when he said on the financial network CNBC Wednesday morning, “This is something (the 777X/737 Max certification) that was driven by our inability to get through the certification process as fast as we anticipated.”
Entry into service (EIS) for the 777X is now expected in 2027, rather than next year. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 are still expected to be certified next year.
Third-quarter losses from operations at Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) totaled $5.353bn, deepening from the 2024 results, when the division lost $4.021bn.
Free Cash Flow was $223m for the quarter and ($2.252bn) for the first nine months of 2025. Operating cash flow was $1.123bn for the quarter, ($266m) for the year, driven by higher commercial deliveries.
Corporate net losses for the quarter totaled $5.339bn, an improvement over 2024 results, when the company lost $6.174bn.
Boeing takes $4.9bn charge in 3Q against 777X; reports slightly improved quarter YOY
Oct. 29, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Boeing takes $4.9bn charge on 777X in 3Q2025 earnings report. Loss from operations: $4.78bn vs $5.76bn year-over-year; net loss $5.34bn vs $6.17bn YOY. Cash flow +$1.1bn vs ($1.34bn) YOY.
More to come shortly….
Boeing sees no new single aisle plane until 2040
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Recent reports that Boeing is working on a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX and a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), or a version of it, are fundamentally true but vastly overhyped. At a conference in Prague earlier this month, Boeing’s Darren Hulst put a damper on this speculation, but said only that Boeing was “not close” to launching a new airplane.
Concept of the Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing hasn’t publicly put any dates on entries into service of its new airplanes, whatever these may be. But internally, Boeing is of the belief that its 737 replacement won’t enter service before 2040.
This doesn’t mean that Boeing’s Product Development unit isn’t working on new airplanes in the background. The company must be ready to respond in case some other OEM introduces a new airplane before then.
Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury publicly said several times that it will introduce a replacement for the A320neo in 2038. But there are some within Airbus who dispute this, concluding that new technology needed to justify a new airplane won’t be ready until the 2040 decade.
The driving factor is, of course, new engines. But as LNA’s 13-part series about new airplane technology and 7-part series about new production technologies demonstrate, engines aren’t the only technology needed. However, without significant advances in engine technology, none of the others is sufficient to justify a new airplane.
Impact on Boeing’s China deliveries under Trump’s latest tariff tiff will be minimal
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war with China when he announced on Oct. 12 that a 100% tariff would be levied on imports to the US.
This round was a retaliatory measure against China’s restrictions on exporting rare earth materials to the US and other countries. Rare earth materials are principally sourced from China and are critical to the aerospace industry, among others.
Trump said he also might block deliveries from Boeing to China’s airlines and lessors, as well as key parts, components, and engines. A large portion of China’s current fleet is Boeing aircraft. Blocking spare parts could eventually ground in-service Boeing airplanes due to parts shortages.
US-made engines and a variety of parts and systems for China’s C909 and C919 airliners are also sourced from the US. Airbus aircraft operated by China’s airlines may also have US parts and components that could be blocked if Trump takes this action.
There was initial hand-wringing among some media that blocking deliveries would hurt Boeing. However, when Boeing’s delivery stream to China for the balance of Trump’s current term (which ends on Jan. 20, 2029) is examined, it’s clear that, while annoying, Boeing actually has few airplanes scheduled for delivery.
Deliveries to China represent between 3% and 5% of total deliveries through the balance of Trump’s term.
The China delivery data is from Cirium, as of Oct. 7. The total deliveries through 2029 are estimates from Bernstein Research.
Boeing deliveries to China represent a small single-digit percentage of total deliveries through the remainder of President Trump’s term. Credit: Leeham News.