Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2025, © Leeham News, Le Bourget, France: The Paris Air Show was supposed to be another step, however small, in Boeing’s way back from six years from crisis after crisis, safety and quality concerns, criminal investigations, Congressional hearings and existential threats following two fatal crashes of the 737 MAX and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Boeing wasn’t bringing any MAXes, 777X or 787s to the air show. There would be no awe-inspiring flight displays. The cost wasn’t worth it given Boeing’s billions of dollars in losses in recent years.
Nevertheless, Boeing planned low-key executive appearances and media events.
Air India flight 171 on its descent to a crash on July 12. Credit: Amateur video.
And then, four days before the show was to officially begin tomorrow, Air India flight 171 crashed, killing 241 of 242 people on board and at least three dozen on the ground where the 14-year-old 787-8 pancaked in to a densely packed residential and educational area only two kilometers from the airport.
Videos of the event showed the 787 using up almost all of the 11,500 ft runway to take off in a cloud of dust (presumably the overrun area), barely climbing a few hundred feet, dipping and climbing slightly again before smoothly descending into an explosive ball of smoke and flame on impact out of view of the cameras.
The pilot radioed a Mayday with the terse message reporting power problems with the GEnx engines on the plane.
Very quickly pundits, pilots, armchair experts and even former crash investigators began hypothesizing on what went wrong. Theories ranged from pilot error, misconfigured flaps, dual engine failure, electrical failures and more. The only thing missing was an alien ray from outer space.
Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds
By Karl Sinclair
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: The Boeing Company (BA) remains upbeat on its annual 20-year commercial aircraft projections, as the aviation industry comes to terms with the economic uncertainty of the current political climate.
Credit: All images – Boeing
Boeing projects a need for 43,600 aircraft over the next 20 years, with 75% of those being single-aisle jets.
This is a drop of 375 aircraft over the previous years outlook, in which the company foresaw a need of 43,975 over the same period. Most of the drop off has happened the wide-body segment, which will now need 7,815 planes, versus 8,065 in 2024, a decrease of ~3%.
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Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2025, © Leeham News: One day after the crash of Air India flight 171, very little is known about what happened. Almost everything remains unknown.
What we know
- This is the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787. The accident airplane was delivered in 2014 and is a 787-8,
A screen show of a video of Air India flight 171. The camera is from a distance and the quality is grainy, but to many this seems to show that that flaps were not extended for take off. However, some flaps positions are set at 5 degrees, and may not be readily visible in this shot.
the first sub-type of the family of airplanes.
- There were 242 passengers and crew on board. One passenger survived; there were fatalities on the ground, but the number is fluid. One news report cited a total of 290 killed in the plane and the ground.
- Two videos of the accident surfaced yesterday. One shows the plane’s final seconds as the flight appeared in a relatively flat-attitude climb followed by a slow descent into the ground and explosion of fuel. The other showed the 787 on its take off roll, ascent, descent and crash. Both show that landing gear remained down throughout the short flight. The grainy videos appear to show the flaps were not extended for take off. The second video shows what appears to be a lot of dust thrown up as the plane lifted off the runway. Some speculate that was from the runway overrun area, but the angle and distance from the CCTV doesn’t include this detail.
- A Mayday call was sent from the flight. Most reports end with this one word. A few said the words “no power” were included in the Mayday.
- The weather was clear, but it was humid and more than 100 degrees in temperature. These hot conditions extend take off rolls.
- The plane was headed to London, some 10 hours away. A heavy fuel load would be on the plane.
The speculation
- The videos appearing to show the flaps were up led to the possibility that for some reason the plane was not properly configured for take-off. A flapless take off often leads to crashes, and the presence of a cloud of dust as the airplane lifted off could lend credence to a flapless roll. Flaps up after lift off could lead to a stall.
- However, past accidents with misconfigured flaps and slats included a wobbly take off and immediate crash within the airport perimeter. The video shows a smooth climb, such as it was, and smooth descent, suggesting the pilots retained some control over the airplane.
- “No power” in theory points to a problem on the take off roll, as well as a climb out. “No power” can mean any number of things: complete failure after lift-off, or reduced power at a critical point of the take-off and short flight.
- Fuel contamination could be a factor, but investigation will look into this possibility.
- The landing gear remains down throughout the flight. Normally, the gear would be raised right away. This leads to speculation of a hydraulic issue or perhaps the pilots mistakenly raised the flaps instead of the gear.
Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now
Open to all Readers
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing 737-10 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
June 9, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing announced the addition of a fourth 737 production line in 2023 as the last 747 rolled out of the Everett (WA) widebody factory where the Queen of the Skies was born.
To meet burgeoning demand, Boeing said it would assemble the 737 in Everett. Plans were put on hold a year later when the Alaska Airlines flight 1262 experienced a full cabin depressurization on a new 737-9 MAX minutes after take off from Portland (OR). A failure by Boeing during the assembly to resecure a door plug led to a 60-lb piece blowing out of the fuselage.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) froze Boeing’s plans for the Everett 737 production on what’s called the North Line.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg reaffirmed plans to establish the North Line. Doing so requires FAA approval. The North Line will be exclusively for the 737-10 MAX, which has yet to be certified by the FAA.
Boeing has quietly been laying the groundwork for the new line in the intervening year. Tooling, floor plans and other elements necessary to establish the line continued at a low pace. The company recently leased about 250,000 of space in a nearby industrial park to serve as a staging area for 737 kits.
The North Line will supplement the main 737 factor in Renton (WA), which is slowly returning to higher rates from a complete production suspension in 2019 following the grounding of the 737 after two fatal accidents of the MAX five months apart. The root cause of both accidents was a design flaw in the flight control system.
Boeing quietly returned to a 737 production rate of 38 a month on May 30, keeping a low profile in deference to the FAA, reported The Air Current on June 2.
Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X
By Karl Sinclair
Analysis
June 2, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg believes that lessons learned from the 737 MAX crisis and subsequent in-depth oversight by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are key to certifying the 737-10 MAX and the 777X.
He explained why during an appearance last week at an investors conference organized by Bernstein Research.
“We’re watching real closely to make sure that we aren’t over committing in terms of how many different seat configurations we can get certified in a certain period of time and the complexity,” Ortberg said. “It’s something that we’ve got to watch, particularly the Dash 10s that have types of complex seat configurations.”
Ortberg added that the 777-9 also features complex configurations for international airlines, offering luxurious passenger accommodations.
Kelly Ortberg, CEO of The Boeing Co. Credit: Getty Images.
“It’s going to be with us also on the 777-9 as we bring that into service, making sure we incorporate lessons learned here so that we don’t have seating delays on those aircraft,” he said. “Those aircraft will have the most complex configurations in the front of the airplane.”
Certification of the 777X stalled because of the MAX certification review. There have also been some technical issues that have been and must be resolved. But at long last, flight testing with all four test aircraft has resumed.
“I’m hopeful that we’ll get through the certification flight tests by the end of the year,” Ortberg told the Bernstein conference. “We may still be doing some ETOPS testing going into next year, but there is no real change to our forecast of getting that certification done so that we can start deliveries next year.
“It’s an airplane that has had the most flight testing done of any other aircraft we’ve ever done in terms of hours. We feel pretty good about the stability and our entry into service for the airplane that we’ve done enough flight testing on that it’s going to be a great airplane.”
Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
May 26, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s future depends on satisfying the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that its failures to follow safety protocols and quality control standards are behind it.
It’s been a rough six years since the worldwide Boeing 737 MAX fleet was grounded for 21 months following two fatal accidents five months apart. The existential threat to Boeing from the grounding was exacerbated by the two-year COVID-19 pandemic and a 20-month suspension in deliveries of the Boeing 787 due to production defects.
Then, just when Boeing was making progress, a previously undetected quality “escape” allowed a door plug on a brand new 737-9 MAX operated by Alaska Airlines to separate from the airplane at 14,800 ft shortly after take-off from Portland (OR) on Jan. 5, 2024.
A new crisis hit Boeing. The FAA, which had clamped down on Boeing’s 737 production line following the grounding on March 13, 2019, tightened its grip even further.
Today, Boeing is slowly clawing its way back.
In a media briefing last week for its fourth annual release of its Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report), Don Ruhmann, the CASO, and three colleagues outlined Boeing’s progress in satisfying the FAA that Boeing is on a path to technical and safety recovery. (Financial recovery is not strictly the FAA’s concern and wasn’t covered in the briefing.)
Summary
- Boeing’s Speak Up program for employees did not have an independent manager to whom complaints, concerns, and suggestions could be tendered. Previously, line managers received complaints, raising fears among employees that retaliation was possible. Now, an independent manager is part of the process.
- Boeing told LNA that Ruhmann welcomes a meeting with the engineers’ union, SPEEA, to hear concerns over a stalled SPEEA safety initiative called ASAP.
- Preparations for expansion of 737 production to the Everett (WA) widebody factory are underway, but this, too, depends on the FAA.
The annual report is an outgrowth of the 2018-2019 737 MAX crashes and the crisis that followed.
Updated, May 29, 2025: Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement
UPDATE, May 30, 2025: The Non-Prosecution Agreement was filed with the federal court in the Northern District of Texas yesterday. Here is the document: 5-29-25 Boeing-MAX DOJ NPA
May 23, 2025, (c) Leeham News: The US Department of Justice and Boeing okayed the framework of a Non-Prosecution Agreement to finally resolve the litigation dating to the 2018/19 737 MAX accidents and the Jan. 5, 2024, Alaska Airlines flight 1282 accident. The notice was filed today in the federal court of the Northern District of Texas.
Boeing agrees to pay a total of $1.1bn in fines, compensation and investments. Some of this was previously paid with a Deferred Prosecution Agreement reached in 2021; and some was agreed in a second DPA reached last December. The first DPA was essentially voided following the Flight 1282 accident and the second was rejected on procedural grounds by the judge in the Texas federal court.
The notice may be downloaded here: NPA Notice 5-23-25.
The full agreement should be filed next week, the DOJ said.
Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month
By Scott Hamilton
May 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing will release its fourth annual safety report this month. The first was in 2022.
The document is the Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report). Previous CASO reports outlined programs Boeing adopted since the 2019 737 MAX grounding and safety crises emerged across Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Related Documents
Quality control, safety protocols, intimidation, retribution, and retaliation against line workers were highlighted during the MAX accident investigations and whistleblowing accusations at the Renton, Everett (WA), and Charleston (SC) production plants.
Quality control at Spirit AeroSystems, which builds the 737 fuselage and nose sections of the other 7-Series commercial airliners, also emerged as an issue.
The Federal Aviation Administration’s cooperation with Boeing and transfer of inspection and quality authority also came under scrutiny. The FAA revoked Boeing’s “ticketing authority” to certify 737s and 787s as airworthy before delivery, assuming this role itself. FAA inspectors clamped down on Boeing, reviewing previous work and overseeing production lines.
There is no end in sight for the FAA to relax its grip on Boeing. Boeing must meet six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) before the FAA is convinced that the company has its house in order, allowing production rates to return to pre-MAX grounding levels and boost production for the 787. These KPIs are:
- Employee proficiency measures share of employees currently staffed who are deemed proficient in core skills.
- Notice of Escape (NoE) rework hours measures time performing rework due to non-conforming work from Fabrication and suppliers.
- Supplier shortages measures shortages per day from Fabrication and suppliers.
- Rework hours per airplane measures time spent performing rework in Final Assembly.
- Travelers at factory rollout measures unfinished jobs traveling from Final Assembly.
- Ticketing performance measures quality escapes per ticketed airplane prior to delivery.
Source: Boeing.
The 2024 CASO Report is expected to update these topics and more.
Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part I
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By Karl Sinclair
May 15, 2025, © Leeham News: The aerospace industry is a maintenance-intensive operation, where strict regulatory rules drive many requirements.
Assets must be constantly maintained, governed by the time or usage an airline derives from them.
This goes for airframes, engines, and human resources.
Services account for a large part of aerospace corporate profits. Boeing’s Global Services division is the most profitable part of the company. Photo credit: Boeing Global Services.
Some equipment manufacturers derive little or no profits from product sales, but they make lucrative and long-term revenues from attached maintenance contracts.
Political factors are also coming into play in the services segment.
As airlines are forced into a difficult and expensive decision regarding the payment of tariffs on new aircraft they acquire, many could opt for a different strategy.
Older aircraft that were due for replacement with newer, more fuel-efficient jets will be sent into MRO facilities for an additional heavy-maintenance check.
With falling fuel prices playing less of a factor in the acquisition decision, airlines will be tempted to defer deliveries (thus avoiding the payment of tariffs) using their current assets in their installed fleets.
Extending an aircraft’s useful life by another six to seven years will allow carriers to simply wait out the tariff threat when things return to normal.
LNA looks into the growing services revenue segment among various companies in the aviation industry.
Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 1, 2025, © Leeham News: For years, the debate has been going on about when Airbus will complement the A220-100 and -300 with a longer, higher-capacity A220-500.
In fact, the Bombardier team that designed the A220 as the CS300 already foresaw the prospect of a longer -500. The latest discussions have been around how much to stretch and whether a new wing and stronger engines are needed if the A220-500 replaces the A320neo in the Airbus lineup.
We use the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to examine the design data for the A220-100 and -300 and determine whether a stretched -500 would benefit from a new wing and stronger engines (which would then be the CFM LEAP-1Bs used on the Boeing 737 MAX).
Figure 1. A rendering of a possible A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220 started life as the CSeries, designed to compete with Embraer’s E-Jet E2.
- It has since added range through increased Maximum Takeoff Weights to enter the single aisle segment range-wise.
- A stretched A220 would expand the present A220 series upwards and potentially replace the A320neo for Airbus.
- We start by comparing the A220 to the E2, then we move on to examining whether an A220-500 can successfully replace the A320neo.