Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
With CSeries, Airbus commands 78% of 100-150 seat sector
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Introduction
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus acquired 50.01% of the Bombardier CSeries program last year.
Boeing and Embraer Commercial Aviation received Brazilian government approval last month and now await a nearly-year long regulatory approval process from around the globe.
Based on the announced orders at Jan. 1, Airbus has a 78% share of the 100-150 seat sector following the combinations.
Embraer sold more airplanes in this sector than Boeing: 95 E195-E2s to 70 737-7s.
The former CSeries has 526 orders to 55 for the A319neo.
Summary
- 14% of the A220 orders are classified as “Red” in LNA’s judgment—orders that either should be removed from the backlog or, in one case, is highly questionable due to customer statements.
- Another 11% of the A220 orders are classified as “Yellow,” primarily due to region risk.
- Synergies between A220 and A320 are greater than E2 and 737.
Pontifications: The 747 revolutionized air travel
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Few airplanes truly can be called revolutionary. Most are evolutionary.
The Boeing 747 was one of those that falls into the former category.
Just as the Boeing 707 revolutionized air travel, so did the 747.
The spaciousness and, after a period of engine difficulties, the economics put the 747 into a class by itself.
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 9
Feb. 08, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our run through of the pitch stability problems of an airliner we covered high and low-speed problems in the last Corners and before it deep stall.
Now we go back to the region just before and during a stall, to look at more measures to help the pilot besides stall warning and stick pushers.
Figure 1. A thought pitch moment curve for Boeing’s 737 MAX. Source: Leeham Co.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 07, 2019, © Leeham News: In our analysis series about the 777X, we have now come to the smaller member of the 777X, the 777-8.
It’s what’s called a “cut and shut” shrink of the main variant, the 777-9. A cut and shut derivative of a larger base aircraft gives the smaller aircraft some special characteristics. We look at what this entails.
Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Source: Boeing.
Summary:
- The 777-8 is a “cut and shut”variant of the 777-9. This means it keeps the wings, engines, landing gear and empennage of the larger 777-9.
- A shorter fuselage with a reduced cabin size means the 777-8 filled with passenger and cargo has more weight margins for fuel within the same Maximum Takeoff Weight as the 777-9.
- The end result is an Ultra Long-haul capable aircraft, available from 2022.
Countdown to NMA decision, Part 4: Time out
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Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for Airbus to launch the A321XLR.
Boeing last week announced a program launch for the New Midmarket Airplane won’t come until 2020 at the earliest.
Authority to Offer (ATO) may come as early as March or April. It had been widely expected a program launch would be announced at the Paris Air Show in June.
Airbus has been mulling the XLR launch since 2017. Inside information says a November 2017 launch was planned when all the distractions over the corruption scandals, coupled with key executive retirements, overwhelmed events.
Fifteen months later, Airbus dithers while Boeing vacillates.
Pontifications: 787-10 engines too small for Emirates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: There is more to Emirates Airline’s renewed its interest in the Airbus A350 and the potential swap-out of Airbus A380 orders than meets the eye.
The Airfinance Journal Dublin conference is worth attending for the program, but the real news is often generated on the sidelines. This is where I picked up noise about the Emirates interest in swapping the A350 for the A380.
The renewed interest, and growing disaffection with the A380 (over the engine issues) was part of it.
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 8
By Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 01, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner, we covered the high-speed pitch stability problem most airliners have, Mach tuck.
Now, we continue with low-speed problems which made Boeing introduce Speed trim on the 737.
Figure 1. The block diagram for Boeing’s 737 Speed Trim system. Source: Boeing.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 30, 2019, © Leeham News: We started an analysis of the Boeing 777X last week as its rollout and first flight should happen this spring/summer. In the Figure below, the first flight test aircraft has its engine mounted, before roll out.
We will spend this article on the 777X engines, the GE9X from GE Aviation. Surprisingly, these are less powerful than the GE90 engines on the Boeing 777-300ER, the aircraft the 777X is derived from, despite the 777-9 being larger and heavier than the -300ER. This is with intent. The design of the 777X is to achieve more with less. We reveal how this is done below.
Figure 1.
Summary:
- The Boeing 777-9 is larger and heavier than the 777 variant it replaces, the Boeing 777-300ER.
- Despite this, the GE9X engines on the 777-9 are specified with 10,00lbf lower maximum thrust than the GE90-115 on the 777-300ER.
- How does it all work? We reveal how below.
Key customers shrug off Boeing’s 2020 NMA launch date
Jan. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Key customers and suppliers shrugged off Boeing’s announcement today that a program launch for the prospective New 
Midmarket Aircraft won’t come until 2020.
If Boeing goes ahead with the NMA, a decision yet to be made, an announcement was widely expected at the Paris Air Show in June.
Authority to Offer (ATO) the airplane for sale may still come as early as March or April.
Forget the NMA, go after A321–say ex-Airbus exec
Jan. 29, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing should forego the New Midmarket Aircraft and instead create a new single aisle airplane targeting the Airbus A321, former Airbus COO-Customers John Leahy said.
Leahy, who was Airbus’ top salesman for more than two decades and the opponent Boeing loved to hate, said Boeing is pursuing the wrong market with the NMA.
Leahy made his remarks at the Airfinance Journal Dublin Conference last week.