Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Where will MAX be built?
Crosscut Seattle, an on-line only news outlet (and one we consider to be quite good) does occasional in-depth think pieces. Today it has one about the burning question to Washington State: where will the Boeing 737 MAX be built?
We’re alluded to this question and potential sites in several previous posts, including our recent one about the earthquake in San Antonio (TX), which is suggested to us to be on the short list for the MAX site.
Crosscut is known for calling shots as it sees them and it fires one at the King County Aerospace Alliance formed by the county executive with the MAX in mind.
Crosscut’s conclusion is largely correct, but it misses the point: King County government has been AWOL for years in promoting aerospace, a short-coming of previous executives who rested on complacency.
It’s about time the county got in on the action.
747-8 engineer nominated for top honors
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this piece that describes the honor Boeing engineer Pio Fitzgerald has been nominated for at the Dubai Air Show for his design fixing the flutter problem on the Boeing 747-8 that threatened the entire program.
Fitzgerald is just 34 years old. Gates’ story provides an interesting if short bio of this talented man.
Congratulations to Fitz for the nomination. The winner will be honored by Flight Global.
4.6 earthquake in possible 737 MAX site
San Antonio (TX), a potential assembly site for the 737 MAX, was hit yesterday with a 4.6 earthquake.
The city is also the location for 787 finishing work.
Readers will recall that on the second quarter earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney stunned Washington State interests when he said 737 MAX work is not guaranteed for Renton (WA), where the 737 has been assembled since shortly after the program was launched. (The 737 initially was assembled at Boeing Field and moved to Renton.)
A hint of things to come–Lufthansa 787 order?
Lufthansa Technik “is set to become a leading 787 MRO” following a deal with JAL, blares a headline in AviTrader’s current issue of MRO magazine.
The magazine writes:
Lufthansa Technik will become one of the world’s leading 787 MRO providers after concluding a Total Component Support (TCS) contract with
Japan Airlines (JAL) to support its fleet of 787 Dreamliners. The agreement runs for a term of 10 years and will see the MRO provide material
support, including repairs and logistics services, for JAL’s fleet of 35 Dreamliners from the moment its first aircraft is delivered next year. Lufthansa
Technik will supply its customer with materials from Tokyo as well as from its existing material locations in Frankfurt and Hamburg.
JAL has GEnx engines on its 787s, which may give GE the edge in engine selection for Lufthansa.
The German airline has been evaluating the Airbus A350 XWB and the 787 for many months for what would be a huge order, perhaps 150, across the Lufthansa group.
More 787 cancellations likely: Boeing, UBS
Boeing sees more 787 cancellations following the one by China Eastern Airlines for 24 aircraft, according to this news article.
In light of the CEA cancellation due to delays, UBS aerospace analyst David Stauss re-issued his May report in which his team concludes 46 787 customers net over-ordered 500 aircraft of all wide-body types and predicted then that more 787s would be canceled than was true at the time.
UBS concluded that 80% of the 787 backlog was ordered for growth and the remainder for replacement.
UBS didn’t specify what wide-body were over-ordered or would be canceled. Cancellations could come from the 787, Airbus A330, Airbus A350 or the Boeing 777 and the Very Large Aircraft from both OEMs.
But UBS’ point is that in its view, more 787 orders are at risk.
Airbus takes on MAX and says best Boeing can get is 8%
Note: Plane Talking has this detailed story about NEO v MAX.
Over at AirInsight, we have published a long, long piece (some 3,500 words) stemming from a briefing we had at ISTAT Europe in Barcelona about the A320neo vs the 737NG and 737 MAX. The post is here.
Airbus believes Boeing cannot achieve the 10%-12% lower fuel burn it advertises with the smaller fan-diameter CFM LEAP engine. The best Boeing can do, in Airbus’ estimation, is 8%.
Take a read. This is the most detailed product comparison in the public domain yet.
Final thoughts on 787 first delivery
There is a sense of relief that Boeing finally delivered the first 787 this week, after a 3 1/2 year delay and the most painful gestation period in Boeing Commercial Airplane history.
In addition to the actual rain storm on Monday that could not dampen the spirits of the moment, there were many others who nonetheless tried to rain on Boeing’s parade. They pointed out, correctly, that challenges remain for the ramp up in production and Boeing spent billions of dollars on the troubled program.
These and other points are legitimate issues. We chose to let Boeing have its moment in the sun (figuratively speaking, anyway, considering the lousy weather Monday).
Here are our thoughts:
FedEx gets ‘best and final offers’ from Airbus, Boeing
FedEx is considering ordering the Airbus A330-200F or Boeing 767-300F. We learned at ISTAT that some at the company think the A330-200F is too much airplane in terms of range for US domestic service and would prefer the short-range A330-300F capable of carrying more volume. Although some months ago Jon Ostrower broke the story that FDX was talking with Boeing about the 767-400, we learned at ISTAT Boeing said “no.” It is focused on the KC-46A, 767-derived tanker and doesn’t want to take on a program that would divert resources from this effort.
Separately, we learned that Airbus and Boeing submitted their best and final offers last week and a decision–which might include a decision to do nothing–could come as early as this week. Concerns over the economy are spooking FDX, we are told, and there is a faction that favors acquiring more Boeing 757s for conversion and doubling up on frequency if capacity is needed while maintaining the flexibility to cut capacity in a downturn at a lower capital acquisition cost.
If Airbus were to win this order for the A330F, then the prospect of Airbus proceeding with the Mobile (AL) plant is back on the table, we are told.
787 first delivery, Day 2
Here’s more on Boeing’s first delivery of the 787 to launch customer All Nippon Airways.
The first picture illustrates the fancy, new windows in the 787. The manual shade is eliminated in the 787 and the window is dimmed by the passenger or the flight attendant. This photo, taken aboard an ANA 787 Sunday on the sunny ramp at Paine Field, is a dramatic representation of this feature. Photo by yours truly.