Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2025, © Leeham News, Le Bourget, France: The Paris Air Show was supposed to be another step, however small, in Boeing’s way back from six years from crisis after crisis, safety and quality concerns, criminal investigations, Congressional hearings and existential threats following two fatal crashes of the 737 MAX and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Boeing wasn’t bringing any MAXes, 777X or 787s to the air show. There would be no awe-inspiring flight displays. The cost wasn’t worth it given Boeing’s billions of dollars in losses in recent years.
Nevertheless, Boeing planned low-key executive appearances and media events.
Air India flight 171 on its descent to a crash on July 12. Credit: Amateur video.
And then, four days before the show was to officially begin tomorrow, Air India flight 171 crashed, killing 241 of 242 people on board and at least three dozen on the ground where the 14-year-old 787-8 pancaked in to a densely packed residential and educational area only two kilometers from the airport.
Videos of the event showed the 787 using up almost all of the 11,500 ft runway to take off in a cloud of dust (presumably the overrun area), barely climbing a few hundred feet, dipping and climbing slightly again before smoothly descending into an explosive ball of smoke and flame on impact out of view of the cameras.
The pilot radioed a Mayday with the terse message reporting power problems with the GEnx engines on the plane.
Very quickly pundits, pilots, armchair experts and even former crash investigators began hypothesizing on what went wrong. Theories ranged from pilot error, misconfigured flaps, dual engine failure, electrical failures and more. The only thing missing was an alien ray from outer space.
Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing forecast a significant production gap during the next 20 years of more than 2,000 aircraft per year in their current outlooks released in conjunction with the Paris Air Show. The event begins Monday.
Neither company can fill this gap given their current production rates and the goals they have for the rest of this decade.
This means other manufacturers must step up. The question is who?
China’s Comac is current producing a competitor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, the C919. But the production rate is excruciatingly low.
Comac also has plans for a widebody airplane to compete with the Airbus A330-900 and Boeing 787. If past is prologue, development of this aircraft will be much longer than the target entry into service of 2029.
Embraer currently is the world’s third largest airliner manufacturer. However, its jets seat between 76- and 144 seat. The company is studying whether to enter the mainline jet sector, but the decision seems a year or more away.
Start-up JetZero wants to develop a Blended Wing Body aircraft for the 250-300 seat sector. But it has little money, no engine and, LNA believes, little hope of meeting the ambitious timeline of having a demonstrator aircraft by 2027.
In a media briefing on June 13, Airbus named Boeing as its medium-term competitor; China is most like to become one; Embraer is a question mark; and JetZero appears to be making little progress, in its view.
Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer’s 20-year market forecast for airliners with 150 seats or less shows a decline in anticipated turboprops and a jet outlook (100-150 jets) about the same as last year’s study.
The study was released days before the Paris Air Show, which begins Monday.
Credit: Embraer.
Embraer now sees a demand for 1,780 turboprops and 8,720 jets. Embraer and ATR, now the only new producer of turboprops outside China and Russia, previously forecast a demand for around 2,100 turboprops. A few years ago, Embraer appeared on a path to develop a new turboprop. It shelved the program, stating there wasn’t a new engine available.
Embraer’s current airliner family consists of the 76-seat E-175 E1, the 100-seat E-190-E2 and the 144-seat E-195-E2. Officials publicly acknowledged that Embraer is studying whether to enter the mainline jet segment of 180- to 230 seats.
Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news
By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2025, © Leeham News: Don’t look for big news at the Paris Air Show, which begins on Monday and runs through Thursday.
There won’t be any program launches. Orders from ATR, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer shouldn’t be anything huge. The engine makers won’t have anything new to announce, except perhaps Pratt & Whitney Canada. PWC has quietly been developing a small version of the Open Fan engine for MAEVE, a start-up Netherlands/German company.
The obvious question is whether the sibling, “big” Pratt & Whitney, is developing a full-size version for mainline jets. At big PW’s air show briefing, president Rick Deurloo vowed it’s only interest is an evolution of the Geared Turbo Fan engine.
Maeve and Pratt & Whitney Canada revealed a re-design by Maeve of its proposed 76-100 seat, five-abreast regional airliner powered by a new-design Open Fan engine. Credit: Maeve.
MAEVE is developing a 76-100 seat, five abreast aircraft aimed straight at the US Scope Clause-restricted market. It went public this week with its concept, which has operating specifications that directly compete with Embraer’s older generation E175 E1. MAEVE’s airplane is a hybrid-electric aircraft.
Paris Day Three: Boeing gets small orders; Airbus talks hydrogen and hiring
By Bryan Corliss
June 21, 2023, © Leeham News – After the flurry of news surrounding the blockbuster orders from IndiGo and Air India earlier in the week, Wednesday’s Paris Air Show news was relatively subdued, with Boeing announcing a handful of smaller orders from airlines and leasing companies.
Airbus had announcements of an MOU for a potential widebody order, successful trials of a hydrogen-fuel concept, an update on global hiring – and the winner of a design-the-livery content for its proposed A350F cargo jet.
We’ll need to see a major flurry of orders on Thursday, if we’re to get to the 2,000-plus orders some analysts projected for this year’s air show.
- Indian start up adds 737s
- Air Lease Corp adds 787s
- Airbus halfway to 2023 hiring goal
- First A350F will look like a packing tube
Paris Day Two: Air India finalizes earlier deals; Embraer, ATR announce orders
By Bryan Corliss
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News – While Monday’s news from the Paris Air Show was dominated by the one big Airbus order from Indian carrier IndiGo, Tuesday saw a host of smaller deals announced by OEMs, airlines and leasing companies.
IndiGo rival Air India also announced it had finalized its massive 470-jet order from February, which it had split between Boeing and Airbus.
While there was a significant volume of deals announced Tuesday, in many cases, they were formal announcements of deals that OEMs already were carrying on their order books.
- Air India finalizes Boeing, Airbus orders
- Boeing lands orders from airlines, lessors
- Airbus reveals new orders and buyers in previous deals
- Embraer and ATR announce first deals of show
- Eviation announces LOI for Alices
Pontifications: Only time will tell
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News: Here at the Paris Air Show in what is the first normalized show after the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic, the sense of excitement is almost tangible.
There are predictions by some that when this week is over, more than 2,000 commercial airplane orders could be announced. This would match the heyday of orders in the 2010 decade.
Clearly, there is pent-up demand for new airplanes. Aging aircraft are part of the reason. A push toward more fuel efficient, and therefore more environmentally friendly airplanes is another reason. Full order positions, dating to 2026 for the Boeing 737 and to 2029 for the Airbus A320 is prompting some orders to “get in line.” Even widebody aircraft delivery slots are sold out for the next several years. So is the Airbus A220.
Embraer pulls up the rear with its E-Jet E2. Sales are hampered because the E-Jet family serves a shrinking market, the regional airlines. But Embraer, too, has had a flurry of recent orders.
Airbus and Boeing are talking openly about the next new airplane—Boeing more openly than Airbus. Their confidence is clear.
Alternative energy also takes a front seat at the show. Fuels, batteries, UAMs, eVTOLs, and more vie for attention.
Collins Aerospace faces new merger before previous one is fully integrated
July 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Ajay Agrawal, the president of Collins Aerospace’s aftermarket services, wasn’t done integrating the 
merger between United Technologies and Rockwell Collins.
He now faces a new integration with the planned merger between United Technologies (Collins’ parent) and Raytheon. The new company will be called Raytheon Technologies. There’s little he can do until the merger is approved by regulators, except plan internally how to integrate and expand the aftermarket business.
Pontifications: Boeing can’t catch a break
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing can’t catch a break.
Some may argue it doesn’t deserve one, given what’s come out about the 737 MAX development. And the sloppy production of the 787 at the Charleston (SC) plant. And the FOD issues with the KC-46A at the Everett (WA) plant.
To be sure, Boeing has gotten a lot of bad press it’s deserved. But last week, two pieces of news had connections to the MAX that were (1) overwrought and (2) unwarranted.
SAP and advanced manufacturing cut costs for current, new airplanes
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July 1, 2019, © Leeham News: Improving supply chain management is one of the many, many key factors in making the business case for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane.
The prospective Boeing NMA needs SAP and advanced manufacturing processes to help close the business case. Source: Leeham Co.
The highly complex task of managing a supply chain with millions of parts across many product lines can break down quickly with any weak link, be it from a supplier or in the management system itself.
Quality control, security, misrouting, package integrity in shipping are among the key issues. The sheer magnitude of tracking inventory is huge.
Boeing uses Enterprise Resource Planning and is shifting the system to a new, expanded one called Systems Applications Projects. SAP is the next generation of ERP. Even though ERP has been in use for decades, last year there was a breakdown in deliveries that contributed to production interruptions of the 737 NG (late deliveries of the CFM 56 were a bigger problem).
Boeing’s transition from ERP to SAP is taking longer than anticipated, with a 2021-ish target.
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With the NMA business case continuing to be difficult to close, Boeing’s need to attack every cost is clear.