Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Pontifications: Some customers face 3 month delays in current 737 MAX delivery stream
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing has been delivering 737s from its stored inventory and its new production line more slowly than desired. Some customers face a three-month delay, even as Boeing tries to return to normalcy following the 21-month grounding of the MAX and the impact of the two-year pandemic.
The supply chain is a key culprit. Reconfiguring stored airplanes for lessees or buys after a change from the original operator is another. Engine shortages are still another.
BOC Aviation, a lessor headquartered in Singapore, faces three months delays, Robert Martin, the CEO, said in an interview with LNA.
Pontifications: Signs point to China OK soon for Boeing deliveries, orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 29, 2022, © Leeham News: The Chinese government appears on a path toward authorizing Boeing to resume deliveries to airlines by or early in the fourth quarter, China watchers tell LNA.
China hasn’t placed new orders for Boeing aircraft, with few exceptions, since then-President Donald Trump initiated a trade war with China shortly after taking office in 2017.
Nor has China taken delivery of more than single-digit numbers since 2019, following the grounding of the 737 MAX in March that year. China’s regulator, CAAC, was the first to ground the domestic MAX fleet following the second accident of the type in March 2019, five months after the first accident.
China was the last major regulator to recertify the MAX, in December 2021, following the FAA’s recertification in November 2020. But CAAC has not authorized deliveries. It appeared on the cusp of doing so when last May a China Eastern Airlines 737-800 nose-dived from cruising altitude into the ground, killing all aboard. CAAC ordered China Eastern and its affiliated airlines to ground all 737-800s, a move widely believed to be unwarranted given the circumstances of the crash that tentatively pointed to a cockpit-controlled dive. Later investigation largely confirmed this, though no accident report has been released yet.
Because of the crash, CAAC withheld authorization for Boeing to resume deliveries of the MAX. Geopolitical considerations also are believed to have played a role as tensions between the Washington and Beijing continued over the unresolved trade war, China’s straddling sides in the Russian-Ukraine War, and visits by members of the US Congress visited Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province and objects to political visits by other countries.
Pontifications: Heros and a thriller–two book reviews
Fly Boy Heroes, The Story of the Medal of Honor Recipients of the Air War Against Japan
By James H. Hallas. Stackpole Books, $29.95.
The First Counterspy
By Kay Haas and Walter W. Pickut. Lyons Press, $29.95.
Aug. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Two books from my summer reading aren’t about commercial aviation but will be interesting to the broader aviation community.
These are Fly Boy Heroes, The Story of the Medal of Honor Recipients of the Air War Against Japan, and The First Counterspy.
Fly Boy chronicles short stories about the US Medal of Recipients who flew against Japan in the Second World War. Author James Hallas begins with the Japanese air raid on Pearl Harbor and ends with an April 12, 1945, Boeing B-29 raid on Japan. In between, the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in April 1942, the Battle of the Coral Sea, Midway (the outgrowth of the Doolittle Raid), and other combat missions are recounted. The Medal of Honor recipients of these battles are, as the book’s title suggests, the flyboys whose above-and-beyond exploits earned them the Medal. Not all survived their missions, but some did. For those who did, not all had happily ever after endings late in the war or in civilian life.
Being a Chicago area native, I knew that O’Hare International Airport was named after Lt. Commander Edward O’Hare, more commonly known as “Butch.” I also knew, though few others today might, that Butch was the son of Chicago mobster Edgar J. O’Hare, or E. J. E.J. was a lawyer for Al Capone and testified at Capone’s tax evasion trial that sent the mobster to Alcatraz. For his troubles, E.J. was murdered in 1939.
Pontifications: A bad feeling for the JetBlue-Spirit merger
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: I don’t normally report on airline mergers except as these may relate to aircraft fleet planning and the impacts on Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer.
However, the JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger is an exception.
Much has already been written about the questions arising about whether the US Department of Justice will approve the merger; the incompatibility of the two business models; the cost to reconfigure Spirit’s airplanes to the JetBlue cabin standards; and, to some degree, the disparity in labor costs.
It’s the latter I will focus on today.
Pontifications: Two books examine GE’s fall from grace
Lights Out: Pride, Delusion, and the Fall of General Electric
By Thomas Gryta and Ted Mann
Mariner Books, $17.99, 361 Pages
The Man Who Broke Capitalism, How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crush the Sole of Corporate America—and How to Undo His Legacy
By David Gelles
Simon & Schuster, $28.00, 264 Pages
Aug. 1, 2022, © Leeham News: Two recent books about GE and its most prominent CEO, Jack Welch, offer different focus and fascinating insight.
By Scott Hamilton
One, Lights Out, is a detailed chronicle of the Welch era and those who followed. This book goes into much more detail than Gelles’, which is more of a biography of Welch than a corporate history—although obviously, there is pollination of both.
Gelles, a reporter for the New York Times, goes into some discussion about Boeing and the Welch-influenced people who came to lead Boeing, notably Jim McNerney and David Calhoun. But don’t expect Gelles’ book to take a deep dive into how Welch’s tutelage of McNerney and Calhoun affected Boeing. The discussion is superficial. This is, after all, a book focused on Welch.
Pontifications: Boeing gets boost from Farnborough; now, it must deliver
July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing announced last week during the Farnborough Air Show orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, nine 787s, and two 777-8Fs.
By Scott Hamilton
Now, Boeing must deliver. Some of the 737 delivery positions in earlier orders were promised to begin in 2023. Some in the Farnborough orders are promised from 2025. These early delivery positions are one of the reasons (but not the only, to be sure) that Boeing has won some 1,000 MAX orders since the plane was recertified in November 2020.
But Boeing struggles to bump its MAX production rate. Officials hoped to hit a rate of 31/mo early this year. Boeing hasn’t confirmed a report that it hit rate 31 only this month. Confirmation may come during the Boeing 2Q2022 earnings call on Wednesday. Delays from the supply chain hurt Boeing’s ability to ramp up. With a projected production ramp up to 52/mo by 2025 (the pre-grounding level in March 2019), the question is whether the supply chain will be able to meet Boeing’s schedule.
Pontifications: death knell for the E175-E2 as Delta ALPA nixes Scope change
By Scott Hamilton
July 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Any hope that the Delta Air Lines ALPA pilots union will agree to a slightly relaxed Scope Clause in its next contract are just wishful thinking.
Few thought DALPA, as the chapter at the airline is known, would up the weight of airplanes allowed under Scope. This is needed to permit regional airline partners to operate the Embraer E175-E2. The E2 is more environmentally friendly and economical than the E175-E1, a 1990s design with engines (the CF34) that date to 1982 when it first ran on the test stand. The CF34’s design is based on the military TF34 developed in the 1960s.
EMB’s E175-E2 was supposed to enter service in 2021. It’s been rescheduled three times. The current EIS is now targeted for 2027. Few believe Scope will be relaxed by then. There is a growing belief that the E175-E2 is dead. (Embraer says no.) DALPA is often an industry-leading union. Its refusal to relax the weight limit all but assures the E175-E2 is dead.
Pontifications: Boeing vows to maintain freighter dominance
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the jet freighter market from the dawn of the jet age. It aims to keep its dominance.
But for the first time since the collapse of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, Boeing is being credibly challenged by Airbus and P2F conversions. Airbus is selling the A350F. EFW, which is a joint venture between Airbus and ST Aerospace, and IAI Bedek offer freighter conversions for the A330. The A350F is Airbus’ first credible challenge to Boeing’s dominance in the widebody freighter section. (The A300-600RF was a niche aircraft. A310 combis and the A330-200F were unsuccessful.)
EFW, Precision Conversions, and nominally at least two others offer conversions for the A320/321. There are more than 100 A330 P2F and at least five dozen A320/321 P2F orders, marking the first challenge to Boeing’s dominance in narrowbody freighters converted by the aftermarket.
Boeing has been testing the market for months on whether to launch a conversion program for the 777-300ER. Boeing Global Services announced in 2018 at the Farnborough Air Show that it was launching a -300ER P2F program, but never followed through. If Boeing proceeds this time, it faces competition from IAI Bedek, Mammoth Freighters, and Kansas Modification Center, each of which already has firm orders for about 65 conversions.
Pontifications: Why I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing still has a deep hole to climb out of. There’s still plenty of opportunity for missteps along the way. But I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future.
Here’s why.
- There are tangible things to point to that are indicators Boeing internally is now optimistic about its long flirtation with disaster.
- Despite well-deserved skepticism and concern about when, or even if, Boeing is going to launch a new airplane program, signs point to “yes.” These go beyond the usual rhetoric that often has a hollow public relations ring.
- The signs are there that Boeing at long last appears near resuming delivery of the 787, a critical step in its recovery.
- Clearing the inventory of the 737 has been infuriatingly slow. But if one had been paying close attention, this shouldn’t have been a surprise—and China’s refusal so far to authorize its airlines to return the MAX to service is but one issue.
Pontifications: Some customers anticipate up to year delay in certification of A321XLR
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus scheduled the first flight of its Xtra Long Range A321XLR Wednesday.
Some customers think certification of the airplane will be delayed up to a year as Europe’s EASA and the USA’s Federal Aviation Administration demand changes to the integrated aft fuel tank that gives the XLR an advertised range of 4,700nm.
That was the consensus of those I talked to who gathered last week at an industry event in Chicago. Airbus already said the XLR certification will be delayed by a few months as regulators review how the fuel tank is integrated into the airplane.