Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
RTX 2025 Earnings: Commercial Aerospace Leads Growth as Pratt Advances GTF Recovery
By Chris Sloan
Jan. 27, 2026 © Leeham News: “RTX is constructed to meet the moment—by the moment I mean the ramp both in defense and commercial—and to drive long-term value for customers and shareholders,” RTX President and Chief Executive Officer Christopher Calio said as the company closed 2025.
The company has strong order momentum and a record backlog, driven by commercial aerospace demand and continued progress at Pratt & Whitney as the company works through the Geared Turbofan (GTF) powder metal issue.
RTX ended the year with a full-year book-to-bill of 1.56 and a $268bn backlog, up 23% year over year, including $161bn of commercial orders and $107bn of defense awards. Commercial backlog rose 29%, supported by higher aircraft production rates and resilient passenger air travel, while organic growth was led by commercial OE and aftermarket.
At Pratt, management emphasized improving performance as the GTF program continues to grow and newer contracts begin to reshape the business. Chief Financial Officer Neil G. Mitchill Jr. said Pratt is “growing out of the older contracts,” with improved pricing on new work and legacy businesses remaining intact, positioning the segment for margin expansion over the next several years as backlog is executed.
Looking ahead, RTX outlined several areas that will shape results in 2026 and beyond, including continued improvements in GTF fleet management, rising MRO output, and the transition to the GTF Advantage engine. Management also pointed to alignment with OEM production ramp-ups, continued improvement at Collins Aerospace, and increased focus on defense output and capital deployment following recent comments from the Trump Administration, framing the company’s outlook as it balances near-term execution with longer-term growth across commercial and defense markets.
RTX Q4 and FY 2025 Earnings Call Slide Image: RTX
Pratt & Whitney builds for the future while wrestling with the present
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Charlotte Bailey
January 26, 2026, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney (PW) bet big on the geared turbofan to take it back to a sizeable position in the market’s largest airliner segment, the Single-Aisle. It spent more than 20 years to develop the fan gearbox, including functional demonstrator engines that flew on Airbus test aircraft to prove the technology.
The effort was a success; the gearbox in the Pratt & Whitney range of Geared TurboFans, GTFs, has worked perfectly. It achieved what was promised, a low fuel consumption, and has been rock-solid in its function.
Yet PW’s GTFs have had a range of problems since their introduction in 2016. Bent main shafts, combustors that burn through, bearings that fail. And on top, a huge call-back of engines, as a contaminated power metal process has produced compressor and turbine discs that risk failing before their on-engine life expires. The situation has caused over 600 Airbus A320 and A321neos with GTF engines to be grounded for engine replacements, if and when replacement discs are available.
The issues, stemming from the “business as usual” parts of the GTF, have led to write-offs of billions of dollars for PW’s mother RTX and to lost market share to the competing CFM LEAP engine on the Airbus A320/321neo series. But while this clouds the business of yesterday and today, Pratt & Whitney still has the clout to invest in the future. Being part of one of the World’s largest Defence and Aerospace Companies is an important part of the answer.
Figure 1. The Maeve MJ500 with the revolutionary Pratt & Whitney Canada Constant Volume Open Fan engine. Source: Maeve. Read more
Outlook 2026: ATR narrows its focus as the turboprop market evolves
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By Tom Batchelor
Jan. 19, 2026, © Leeham News: Having announced it was abandoning near-term development plans for a Short Take-Off and Landing (STOL) variant 12 months ago, ATR begins 2026 confident about its position within the turboprop market and with a deeper focus on hybrid technology.
As the only player in this corner of the regional aircraft segment following the withdrawal of De Havilland Aircraft and the Q400 (now the Dash 8-400) from production, ATR has pinned its hopes on next-generation propulsion while also working with Pratt & Whitney Canada to improve the thermal efficiency of the latest-generation PW127XT engine, which powers both the ATR 42-600 and 72-600 aircraft.
The PW127XT is already delivering significant benefits, including up to 20% lower maintenance costs, extended time on wing, and at least 3% improved fuel efficiency compared to previous models.
Boeing sees no new single aisle plane until 2040
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Recent reports that Boeing is working on a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX and a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), or a version of it, are fundamentally true but vastly overhyped. At a conference in Prague earlier this month, Boeing’s Darren Hulst put a damper on this speculation, but said only that Boeing was “not close” to launching a new airplane.
Concept of the Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing hasn’t publicly put any dates on entries into service of its new airplanes, whatever these may be. But internally, Boeing is of the belief that its 737 replacement won’t enter service before 2040.
This doesn’t mean that Boeing’s Product Development unit isn’t working on new airplanes in the background. The company must be ready to respond in case some other OEM introduces a new airplane before then.
Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury publicly said several times that it will introduce a replacement for the A320neo in 2038. But there are some within Airbus who dispute this, concluding that new technology needed to justify a new airplane won’t be ready until the 2040 decade.
The driving factor is, of course, new engines. But as LNA’s 13-part series about new airplane technology and 7-part series about new production technologies demonstrate, engines aren’t the only technology needed. However, without significant advances in engine technology, none of the others is sufficient to justify a new airplane.
Perspective on Boeing’s 737 replacement
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 30, 2025, © Leeham News: The Wall Street Journal billed the story as an exclusive, and it did contain details previously unreported.
But the fact that Boeing is working on a 737 replacement isn’t new, even if Boeing has been super-quiet about it. The breadcrumbs have been dropped into public sight all along, and within aviation circles, more has been discussed as well.
Under former CEO David Calhoun, he and other executives discussed the 737 replacement in the form of the transonic truss brace wing (TTBW) single-aisle concept. The very wide, thin wing had about 35 feet of folding wing (as opposed to the folding wing tips on the 777X).
Boeing and Airbus are designing future wings with long folds to allow much greater wingspan than today’s wings. The future folding wings will have a much long fold than the Boeing 777X. Credit: Leeham News.
What Boeing didn’t say publicly, but which was known within aviation circles, was that Boeing was also designing a conventional wing-and-tube 737 replacement in parallel. Boeing always has a Plan A and a Plan B under study, so this was no surprise. But a former 737 program engineer told LNA that Boeing needed a Plan B in this case to serve as a baseline against which the TTBW could be compared for efficiency.
When Calhoun’s successor, Kelly Ortberg, killed the TTBW, Boeing said research and development on the wing would continue. Of course, it would be a replacement for a 737. Why else continue this very specific R&D? Not inconsequentially, Airbus has long been designing a folding wing “Wing of Tomorrow” for the A320 replacement.
Furthermore, the underlying research into the TTBW’s fuselage and systems may be applied to a new airplane, just as elements of the Sonic Cruiser made their way into the 787 in the early 2000s.
Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Sept. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: New policies by President Donald Trump in the first six months of his second administration in trade, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are causing a what may become a significant shift in defense spending that will benefit European companies.
The added business could strengthen those that also participate in commercial aerospace, to the detriment of US companies, notably Airbus.
US companies that for decades were the major suppliers to allies are already beginning to see European countries redirect spending to EU firms. Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on certain EU countries and others on Aug. 1, US defense companies have been hurt. India canceled deliveries of Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidons.
Figure 1. Boeing P-8, based on the commercial 737 NG. India suspended delivery of the P8 due to the Trump tariffs. Credit: Boeing. Airbus now proposes a rival airplane based on the A321.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, MTU, and others expect to benefit from these changes. And, as these companies see more defense work coming their way, then—at least in theory—their commercial business will benefit from stronger balance sheets, profits, cash flow, and perhaps the corporations’ technology.
In an interview at the Paris Air Show in June, the consulting firm Accenture told LNA that it is beginning to see key trends and increases in the defense sector.
Figure 2. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for the Lockheed F-35. Credit: Lockheed. Airbus stands to benefit, among other EU-based defense contractors.
“Obviously, things are changing in terms of the dynamics,” said Jeff Wheless, Growth & Strategy Research Leader at Accenture. “I think certainly from a NATO perspective, I think folks are increasing their spending.”
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said that Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of their budgets paid off. For decades, NATO countries were committed to a 2% spending level, but often failed to meet this commitment.
“Europe is spending by far less money on defense acquisitions than the US,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury in response to an LNA question at the Paris Air Show. “It’s a ratio of one to four or one to five. On top of that, Europe is procuring a lot from the US. I think the message is loud and clear from the U.S. that Europe should take better care of its own security.”
P&W pursues “Industrial 4.0” with GTF engine improvements
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 18, 2025, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney’s long slog in fixing one technical problem after another with its marque PurePower Geared Turbo Fan engine isn’t over yet. It won’t be for another couple of years.
But during the Paris Air Show in June, those LNA talked to were optimistic that the end of the problems is in sight. And they are surprising optimistic about how well PW managed through the crisis and prospects for the future.
Top people at two firms that advise airlines and lessors on engine selection and maintenance contracts told LNA that for all the grief the GTF caused over the years, including hundreds of Airbus and Embraer aircraft grounded while awaiting new engines, PW gained a lot of traction by working with customers to mitigate revenue and cost losses.
That’s not to say that all are satisfied with PW’s response to the years-long series of disruptions. However, one advisory firm leader told LNA that PW’s Advantage GTF (the latest, advanced version, not yet entering service) will have airlines “flocking” back to PW if the engine performs as advertised.
The Advantage GTF will have 3%-4% more thrust and better fuel economy than the preceding GTF engines. Advanced materials, powders, and parts are expected to be more durable than those used in previous engines.
A revealing side note: these same advisors criticized the response from GE Aerospace for being less than cooperative and for not providing enough mitigation responses to shorter on-wing times for the CFM LEAP engine.
Pratt & Whitney’s Asheville (NC) “Industrial 4.0” plant aims to capitalize on digital, advanced manufacturing. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
PW also has spent more than $1bn on what it calls an industry 4.0 production plant in Asheville (NC).
Collins Aerospace continues R&D on electrical options despite industry pullback
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021, a detailed green aviation plan was adopted to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The ambitious program included milestones in the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and other alternative fuels. The policy was part of a greater industry effort to develop battery, hydrogen, and hybrid-powered aircraft and eVTOLs.
Some 300 companies were founded to pursue these various objectives, and many global airlines adopted environmental goals. Some placed conditional orders for eVTOLS or hybrid aircraft.
Boeing focused on SAF development while Airbus pursued hydrogen-powered concepts. GE, Safran, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC), and Rolls-Royce each have or continue to research hybrid or new engine opportunities.
Todd Spierling of Collins Aerospace. Credit: Collins Aerospace.
Plenty of skepticism about reaching the Net Zero goal emerged even at the 2021 IATA AGM. Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline, famously cautioned, Don’t make promises you can’t keep.
Since then, Airbus abandoned its hydrogen goal. Several airlines abandoned their net-zero goals. Most of the 300 start-up companies failed, notably Lilium, which went through an astonishing $1bn before collapsing into insolvency.
One company that acknowledged the idea that aircraft can be powered by batteries alone is Collins Aerospace, a unit of RTX Corp. In an interview with LNA before the Paris Air Show, Todd Spierling, a principal technical fellow, was clear.
“We’ve been working a lot with Pratt and Whitney on electrification and what it means,” Spierling said. “One of the things we found was if you just trade out fuel for batteries, it doesn’t work out.”
Collins Aerospace pacing for new materials, production for next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 4, 2025, © Leeham News: As the aviation industry considers what new major airliners to develop for the next 50 years, new engines, folding wings, advanced materials, and new design and production processes will also be key.
Collins Aerospace, a unit of RTX Corp., is deep into research and development of advanced structures.
This portion of Collins’ antecedents is Hamilton-Sundstrand and B. F. Goodrich Aerospace. Each was acquired by United Technologies, the forerunner of today’s RTX.
Collins has three basic lines of business: aerostructures, landing systems, and propeller and cockpit controls.
Going back to Jim McNerney, the CEO of The Boeing Co. from 2005-2015, the company said repeatedly that its next new airplane will be as much, or more, about production than it will be about the aircraft.
A new materials airplane based on composites or thermoplastics or a similar material to replace the ubiquitous 737 needs a production rate of 60-80 a month, or even more. This can’t be achieved with an autoclave process. Boeing and NASA, the US space agency, are studying new materials processes aimed at this rate.
Airbus is conducting similar studies in Europe with EU companies.
Airbus is openly talking about launching a new airplane program in 2030 to replace the A320 beginning in 2038. Boeing is quietly understood to be operating on a similar timeline for a new program that may be aimed at a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) category airplane.
The underlying question, then, is whether these new processes will be ready by the time Airbus and Boeing want to launch an airplane program.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 5
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
July 31, 2025, © Leeham News: We wrap up our five-part series today on What’s the Next New Airplane in the coming decades. We now look at Airplanes 9-13 in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The 13 airliners we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (9) COMAC 929, (10) Eco-version of New Light Twin, (11) CFM Open Fan single aisle, (12) the Boeing 787 re-engine, and (13) the Airbus A350 re-engine.