Leeham News and Analysis
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What’s the next new aircraft? Part 1
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Part 1 of 5
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Some urge Boeing to take the plunge “now” to launch a new airplane program.
Institutional knowledge is slipping away, these people say. Boeing hasn’t launched a new airplane since December 2003 (the 787), they note. The 737 MAX is selling at a poor second to the Airbus A320neo family. Boeing continues to lose market share.
This illustrates the variety of aircraft being discussed for the next decade or more. Boeing already decided to nix the Transonic Truss Brace Wing aircraft (#2). Credit: Leeham News.
On the other hand, Airbus is in no hurry to launch a new airplane program—or so it says. It can’t keep up with current demand.
Beginning today, LNA will take a five-part look at what the potential new airplanes and/or airplane technologies are for the coming decade or more. Having recently attended the Paris Air Show, we have the latest to supplement our years of study in this arena.
We look at 13 airplanes and concepts (we don’t examine eVTOLs and pure-battery-powered aircraft). These are numbered for identification—not for any ranking of likelihood of proceeding to a real program.
Today’s Part 1 identifies and describes the 13 aircraft.
It’s official: MTU’s engine leader named CEO of Airbus Commercial from Jan. 1; future of Open Fan and A220-500 shifts to him
The future of the CFM RISE Open Fan on the Airbus A320neo successor family loses its biggest proponent within Airbus with the retirement of Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer. His successor is CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a big supplier to CFM’s rival, Pratt & Whitney and the PW1100 GTF engine. Credit: Leeham Co.
By Scott Hamilton
July 10, 2025, © Leeham News: It’s official: Lars Wagner becomes CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. He will succeed current CEO Christian Scherer, who will retire after 40 years at Airbus.
Word of Wagner’s appointment leaked months ago.
Lars Wagner, CEO of MTU Aero Engines. Credit: MTU.
Wagner joins Airbus on Nov. 1 to begin a two-month transition. He is currently the CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a position he assumed in 2023. He joined MTU in 2015. Before that, he held various positions at Airbus. He is an engineer.
Wagner’s appointment may cast a question over GE Aerospace’s campaign with Airbus to choose the RISE Open Fan engine for the latter’s new single aisle aircraft intended to replace the A320neo family.
During the Paris Air Show last month, Airbus Group CEO Guillaume Faury said Airbus plans to decide on the engine to be selected for the A3XX around 2027-2028. A program launch target is 2030 with an entry-into-service target of 2038.
US Transpo Secretary supports zero tariffs on aerospace, but change isn’t assured
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By Scott Hamilton
July 7, 2025, © Leeham News: US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wants to return to aerospace’s zero-tariff agreement, dating to 1979, but cautioned that doing so requires a larger trade agreement between party governments.
Currently, the US has a minimum 10% to 25% tariff on aerospace imports from the European Union and Canada, with much higher fees in some cases. The EU is prepared to impose reciprocal tariffs on the US.
Tariffs have major implications for Airbus and Boeing. Although Airbus assembles A220s and A320/321s at its US Mobile (AL) plant, fuselages, wings and other components are imported into the US from Canada (A220s) and the EU (A320/321s).
Boeing exports planes to the EU, which includes 28 countries. Boeing has more exposure than Airbus.
Components imported by Airbus or Boeing for inclusion in the airplanes are also subject to tariffs.
A Boeing spokesperson told LNA that it can recapture tariffs on important components that are on aircraft subsequently exported. But this ignores the overarching tariffs the EU may apply to the completed airplane.
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Christian Scherer, CEO of Airbus Commercial. Credit: Airbus.
In advance of the Paris Air Show, Airbus said that it’s going to adjust to US-imposed tariffs.
Responding to a question if it “made sense” for the Mobile plant to assemble A220s and A320/321s at the present rate given the impact of the tax, Christian Scherer said there will be no change. Airbus will live with the situation as it evolves. Scherer is the CEO of Airbus’s commercial operations.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 3, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time, making room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extending the A220 family with a larger variant.
We can increase the capacity to that of the A320neo by stretching the A220 fuselage. The next discussion was about how much we could increase the Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) to accommodate more passengers and additional fuel, thereby maintaining the A220-300 range with a longer, heavier, and, therefore, draggier aircraft. We would need to find wing lift improvements and more thrust to keep the field performance close to the A220-300.
We now utilize the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to evaluate various changes to an A220-500 to optimize its performance. 
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- An A220-500 can be designed to have close to the same fuel seat-mile economics as the A320neo. Our article series explains why beating the A320neo would be a challenge.
- It also looks into what a CFM LEAP-engined A220-500 would look like and how it would perform.
Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D
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By Scott Hamilton
June 23, 2025, © Leeham News, Paris: CFM International touts its Open Fan RISE engine as the wave of the future. (CFM is a 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran.)
Rival Pratt & Whitney says evolution of its Geared Turbo Fan is the best engine choice going forward.
CFM’s Open Fan engine design called RISE. Credit: CFM.
Neither company will admit that it is also researching and developing a Plan B engine. For CFM, this is a conventional turbofan. For PW, this is a new Open Fan. But during the Paris Air Show, LNA confirmed that both have a Plan B engine in development.
PW has gone out of its way to dismiss the very idea of an Open Fan engine. Rick Deurloo, the president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial, won’t even talk about the “competitor.” Deurloo makes it clear—publicly, at least—that an evolution of PW’s Geared Turbo Fan (GTF) is the best solution for the next generation engine for the single aisle market, in its view.
Mike Winter, RTX’s Chief Engineer, dismissed the Open Fan as “sub-optimal” on a successor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families. It involves too many installation compromises on this size aircraft, he says. RTX is the parent of PW.
But, says one person with direct knowledge, PW fully understands that if CFM is successful in solving all the challenges of an Open Fan and meets the publicly stated goal of improving fuel consumption by 20% compared with today’s GTF and CFM LEAP engines, PW’s gain of an evolutionary GTF won’t be competitive.
So, says the person with direct knowledge of PW’s activities, the development of an Open Fan alternative engine is being worked on as PW’s Plan B.
Furthermore, PW’s sister company, Pratt & Whitney Canada, publicly disclosed its development of an Open Fan engine in a briefing on Tuesday this week. This engine is for a new 70-100-seat aircraft designed by the start-up company MAEVE. PW is following PWC’s development.
Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 19, 2025, © Leeham News at Paris Air Show: Boeing chose to scale down its participation at this week’s Paris Air Show out of respect for the victims of the Air India crash last week. This left Airbus and Embraer to announce new orders, with a total of 142 firm orders for Airbus and 60 for Embraer.
Outside the order activity for the three large airliner OEMs, it was a relatively quiet show, with few noteworthy announcements of advancements in areas such as Sustainable Aviation.
Figure 1. Airbus orders and commitments at the Paris Air Show. Source: Airbus.
Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing forecast a significant production gap during the next 20 years of more than 2,000 aircraft per year in their current outlooks released in conjunction with the Paris Air Show. The event begins Monday.
Neither company can fill this gap given their current production rates and the goals they have for the rest of this decade.
This means other manufacturers must step up. The question is who?
China’s Comac is current producing a competitor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, the C919. But the production rate is excruciatingly low.
Comac also has plans for a widebody airplane to compete with the Airbus A330-900 and Boeing 787. If past is prologue, development of this aircraft will be much longer than the target entry into service of 2029.
Embraer currently is the world’s third largest airliner manufacturer. However, its jets seat between 76- and 144 seat. The company is studying whether to enter the mainline jet sector, but the decision seems a year or more away.
Start-up JetZero wants to develop a Blended Wing Body aircraft for the 250-300 seat sector. But it has little money, no engine and, LNA believes, little hope of meeting the ambitious timeline of having a demonstrator aircraft by 2027.
In a media briefing on June 13, Airbus named Boeing as its medium-term competitor; China is most like to become one; Embraer is a question mark; and JetZero appears to be making little progress, in its view.
Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada
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By Karl Sinclair
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus Canada President and CEO Benoit Schultz is quietly confident that the A220 program has turned the corner and put the worst of its recent problems in it rear-view mirror.
Hosting the official opening of the Mirabel Delivery Centre (CDL), where airline representatives arrive to inspect and formally accept possession of their aircraft, he was definitive in how committed the company is to the program. “I want to say Airbus is in Canada, in Quebec, to stay. We’ve made that investment in the program now seven years ago with the view of the long-term partnership and with the view of the value that we can bring to our customers building our aircraft here in Canada.”
Credit: Airbus Canada
In addition to the pandemic and tariff hurdles that all OEMs have had to grapple with, the A220 was hit with engine snags, due to a problem with the Pratt & Whitney geared-turbofan (GTF) powered-metal coating.
This limited the time-on-wing (ToW) interval, which is getting resolved. Current engine deliveries, fresh from the factory, are approaching 10,000 hours before heavy maintenance checks, according to Schultz – with further improvements forthcoming.
Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Thursday, 12, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus has released its forecast for new airliners needed between 2024 and 2044. The forecast says there is a need for 43,420 new aircraft over the next 20 years. It means we need to produce and deliver an average of 2,170 aircraft per year during the period.
During 2024, the world deliveries were 1,200 airliners. To meet the Airbus-predicted demand, production and deliveries of aircraft by 2044 must almost triple.
We examine what this means for the existing OEM structure and the opportunities it presents for new players in the commercial aircraft industry.
Figure 1. The Airbus predicted shift in air travel from Europe and Americas to Asia-Pacific. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The growth in air travel and, consequently, the demand for new aircraft is expected to continue unabated over the next 20 years.
- With 1,200 aircraft delivered in 2024 and the need for more than 3,000 aircraft by 2044, there are opportunities for new players to enter the market.
Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now
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By Scott Hamilton
Boeing 737-10 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
June 9, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing announced the addition of a fourth 737 production line in 2023 as the last 747 rolled out of the Everett (WA) widebody factory where the Queen of the Skies was born.
To meet burgeoning demand, Boeing said it would assemble the 737 in Everett. Plans were put on hold a year later when the Alaska Airlines flight 1262 experienced a full cabin depressurization on a new 737-9 MAX minutes after take off from Portland (OR). A failure by Boeing during the assembly to resecure a door plug led to a 60-lb piece blowing out of the fuselage.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) froze Boeing’s plans for the Everett 737 production on what’s called the North Line.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg reaffirmed plans to establish the North Line. Doing so requires FAA approval. The North Line will be exclusively for the 737-10 MAX, which has yet to be certified by the FAA.
Boeing has quietly been laying the groundwork for the new line in the intervening year. Tooling, floor plans and other elements necessary to establish the line continued at a low pace. The company recently leased about 250,000 of space in a nearby industrial park to serve as a staging area for 737 kits.
The North Line will supplement the main 737 factor in Renton (WA), which is slowly returning to higher rates from a complete production suspension in 2019 following the grounding of the 737 after two fatal accidents of the MAX five months apart. The root cause of both accidents was a design flaw in the flight control system.
Boeing quietly returned to a 737 production rate of 38 a month on May 30, keeping a low profile in deference to the FAA, reported The Air Current on June 2.