Leeham News and Analysis
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GE 2026 Outlook: From LEAP Momentum to 777X Certification and the Rise of RISE
By Chris Sloan, Tom Batchelor and Charlotte Bailey
January 22, 2026, © Leeham News: After a strong 2025 marked by rising output, expanding services, and improving execution, GE Aerospace enters 2026 with momentum building across four major programs that define its near- and long-term outlook: the GE9X and the long-delayed Boeing 777X as certification advances toward a 2027 entry into service; the LEAP program as record production levels combine with durability improvements that are beginning to take hold; the widebody GEnx franchise steadily growing its installed base and aftermarket contribution; and the RISE Open Fan as a high-risk, high-reward investment in next-generation single-aisle propulsion.
Throughout the year, strengthening supply-chain performance, rising engine deliveries, and robust services growth translated into improved financial results, reinforcing confidence that GE Aerospace’s operational recovery is gaining traction. Further detail was revealed when the company reported full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 22. The company will test whether this momentum can be sustained—converting higher volumes, maturing reliability initiatives, and disciplined investment in future technologies into durable earnings growth, even as certification timelines stretch and the industry remains cautious about launching the next clean-sheet aircraft.
GE Aerospace’s latest engine application. Credit: GE.
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Dissecting Boeing’s 2025 orders and deliveries
By The Leeham News Team
Jan. 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing won more orders than Airbus last year. Airbus delivered more airplanes, given its higher production rates and Boeing’s long, slow path to recovery.
But a dissection of the numbers also shows positive results for Boeing.
Boeing 737 MAXes awaiting delivery at Boeing Field. Credit: Leeham News.
On top of Delta Air Lines’ breakthrough order for the 787-10, its first for any 787, United Airlines converted 56 787-9s to the 787-10. The 787-10’s seat-mile costs are the lowest in its class. If an airline doesn’t need the longer range of the Airbus A330-900, the A350-900, or the 787-9, the extra passenger and cargo capacity of the -10 is a winning combination.
The total twin-aisle passenger aircraft deliveries were 179 (91 Airbus A330 and A350, 88 Boeing 787s). It is far below the peak of 2015 (362), at the level of 2011 (179), and below the peak of the late 1990s cycle (227 in 1999). Boeing needs the 777-9 certification to reclaim its historical lead in twin-aisle passenger aircraft deliveries. Boeing handily dominates the twin-aisle order book.
COMAC struggled in 2025; 2026 won’t be much better
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 15, 2026, © Leeham News: COMAC had a rough year in 2025. It’s unlikely that this year will be much better.
COMAC is China’s state-owned commercial aerospace company. It builds the C909 regional jet (formerly known as the AVIC ARJ21; AVIC is now part of COMAC). The C909 is a Douglas DC-9-10 look-alike with GE CF-34 engines, the same powerplant that’s on the Mitsubishi CRJ and Embraer E1 E-Jets.
The C909 is not a particularly commercially competitive airplane to the CRJ or E1, but that wasn’t the point of the aircraft. The C909 is China’s truly first effort to establish a commercial jet airliner industry after a false start decades ago with the Y-10, a Boeing 707 clone. China developed turboprop airliners with limited success.
COMAC also builds the C919 mainline jet. The C919 is a competitor with the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-8. This jet is China’s next step in developing a commercial airliner industry. More than 1,000 orders have been placed. All but a handful are orders dictated by the central government to China’s airlines and lessors.
Nevertheless, an analysis of the backlog of the 125-240 seat single aisle sector gives the C919 about a 7% share. With China evolving eventually into the single largest global market, this captive market share is evolving into a force to be reckoned with.
COMAC hoped to deliver 75 C919s last year. Hurt by Western sanctions for China’s support of Russia in the Ukraine War and by trade sanctions imposed by the Trump and Biden administrations, COMAC reduced the delivery forecast to 25. In reality, C919 deliveries last year fell to about 13, the same as in 2024. COMAC outlined its production goals in March; they are unrealistic.
Spirit Aero problems affected A350 deliveries
By the Leeham News Team
Christian Scherer, the former CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Jan. 13, 2026, © Leeham News: Deliveries for the Airbus A350 fell last year compared with 2024, reflecting supply chain challenges.
Christian Scherer, the former CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, said, “The ‘stagnation’ of A350 deliveries is not a lack of demand. There is a center section of the A350 fuselage that is being built by a company formerly known as Spirit Aerosystems. They ran into trouble. They were the pacing item.”
Airbus acquired Spirit’s Airbus business when the company merged with Boeing in December. “Now that we have regained, let’s say, control of that particular center fuselage piece on section 15 of the A350, you will see the A350 continue its ramp up,” Scherer said during the annual Airbus media briefing of its annual orders and deliveries results.
Dissecting the results reveals:
Airbus meets revised delivery target in 2025, touts sales performance for A350
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 12, 2026, © Leeham News: Airbus confirmed today that it delivered 793 jetliners last year. This was on a target revised downward from 820 guided at the beginning of the year.
A late 2025 quality issue involving fuselage panels on the A320 resulted in a reduced target.
Christian Scherer, who relinquished his position as CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, responds to a question during his final press conference today wearing that hat. Credit: Leeham News.
Officials also said that the number of engineless A320 “gliders” was reduced from a peak of 60 last year to a “manageable” small number. Despite continued supply-chain difficulties for interiors, Christian Scherer said that there aren’t any widebody airplanes parked awaiting components.
Scherer officially relinquished his title as CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Dec. 31. This was his last press conference in that role. He remains with Airbus for the next six months in a transition role with his successor, Lars Wagner.
Scherer and Benoit de Saint-Exupéry, EVP Sales Commercial Aircraft, said sales of the flagship, top-of-the-line aircraft, the A350, are gaining momentum. Orders were signed for 193 A350s last year. A Memorandum of Understanding from Air Europa, which will be finalized this year, is intended to replace aging Boeing 787s.
“I want to particularly highlight the Air Europa order for 20 A350-900s,” said Saint-Exupéry. “With this move, Air Europa recognizes the A350 platform as the right tool for the next chapter of growth, including the superior economics and performance of our technology to replace their existing 787 fleet.
“As we are reaching the first wave of replacements of the early 787 fleets, we are confident that other airlines will reach the same conclusion as Air Europa with the A350-900, but also that of many other airlines which have already decided to replace their 777 fleet with the A350-1000,” he said.
However, Boeing had a banner year for 787 sales, too.
Airbus adds emphasis for A220 to regional airlines; adding high-density version
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2026, © Leeham News: Airbus is tweaking the marketing messaging for the A220 to boost sales for regional airline operations.
Marketing for the A220 began as the C Series when Bombardier launched the program in 2008. Bombardier positioned the 100-seat CS100 as a replacement for the Airbus A318 and Boeing 737-500/600. The 130-seat CS300 was designed to replace the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700. The Airbus and Boeing airplanes are considered mainline aircraft as opposed to regional airliners.
The A220-100 is a “necessary” part of the family, Airbus says. Credit: Airbus.
Bombardier also design a larger CS500, but didn’t launch the program. The CS500 would be a direct competitor to the A320 and 737-800/8.
Airbus continued this marketing approach when it agreed to purchase control of the C Series program in 2017, renaming it the A220-100 and A220-300. Airbus says it’s a matter of when, not if, it will proceed with the A220-500.
However, at an event hosted by the European Regional Airlines Association, Airbus told regional carriers the A220 is a choice airplane for them if they have ambitions to spread their wings, so to speak.
Benjamin Peiron, VP Single Aisle Marketing for Airbus, told LNA in an interview last month that this message didn’t represent a shift in marketing strategy. “It’s more focused, I would say. If we look at the operator base of A220, it’s about half composed of legacy carriers, [like] Air France, Delta, Air Canada. About one third is from so-called regional airlines, whatever the exact definition is. The rest is hybrid low-cost or equivalent.”
Airbus gets new CEO for Commercial Aircraft; faces supply chain issues, decisions on A220 Stretch, Open Fan engine
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 5, 2026, © Leeham News: The big news at Airbus at the start of this year is the new president and chief executive officer for Airbus Commercial Aircraft: Lars Wagner.
Wagner succeeds an Airbus lifer, Christian Scherer, who retired from his position on Dec. 31. He remains with Airbus for another six months in a transition capacity. Wagner joined Airbus in November to begin a transition period. He previously was the CEO of MTU Aero Engines AG. He joined MTU from Airbus in 2015, holding various positions until he was recruited by Airbus to succeed Scherer.
Lars Wagner took over as CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. Credit: Airbus.
Immediate challenges facing Wagner include stubborn supply chain issues as Airbus seeks to ramp up production of the A320 family to 75/mo by 2027; the A220 family to 12/mo this year, the A350 to 12/mo by 2028, and 5/mo A330 by 2029.
Airbus’ supply chain—as with Boeing, Embraer, the engine makers, and the suppliers within their own chain—remains stressed for a variety of reasons.
In fact, quality control issues on A320 fuselage panels that became public on Dec. 1 illustrate just one of the many challenges the 50-year-old Wagner faces. Those problems, and others, prevented Airbus from meeting its delivery target of 823 aircraft for 2025.
Two other major issues facing Wagner, but in the coming near-term years, are whether to stretch the A220-300 into an aircraft the size of the A320neo; and whether to select the GE/Safran CFM International RISE Open Fan engine for the A320 replacement in the coming decade.
Group CEO Guillaume Faury said during the Paris Air Show last year an engine decision will be made by 2027 or 2028, and a program launch will be in 2030. A RISE demonstrator engine is to be mounted on an A380 next year to begin flight testing.
Scherer was the leading proponent of both projects, arguing that a market leader should not wait for the competition to move but rather jump them to stay the leader.
Boeing captures 33% of single-aisle sector, maintains big lead for wide-bodies
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737, a slow response to the Airbus A321neo, and the series of crises involving the 737 MAX beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share that places Boeing at a distant No. 2 to Airbus.
The total program orders give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family to Boeing’s 33% for the MAX. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single aisle market, an analysis of data from the companies as of Dec. 5 reveals.
China’s COMAC C919 captures 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data analyzed from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2, captures a mere 2% of the 100-240 seat sector.
Russia’s Sukhoi MC-21 is not included in this analysis because the market is closed to Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer due to international sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war.
“Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back” picked by Royal Aeronautical Society as a top book for Christmas
By Scott Hamilton
My book, “The Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back”, has been named as one of its top picks of aviation books by the Royal Aeronautical Society for Christmas 2025.
“Following on from his previous Air Wars, which looked at Airbus vs Boeing rivalry, aviation journalist and analyst Scott Hamilton brings commercial aerospace up to date with a look at the rollercoaster ride that has been Boeing’s fortunes over recent years. How did a brand that personified American engineering excellence become so distrusted by customers, politicians, and even the general public? And more important – what are the ways back from this?” The RAS wrote.
This is the second time one of my books has been so named. (I’ve only written two books.) The first, “Air Wars, the Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing”, was chosen when it was published in 2021.
“Rise and Fall” continues the story begun with “Air Wars.”
“Rise and Fall” may be purchased here.
“Air Wars” may be purchased here.
Mitigating mounting pressures in the global supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany. Credit: Leeham News, Charlotte Bailey.
Dec. 22, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “In today’s aerospace environment, which is marked by workforce challenges, evolving technologies, geopolitical risk, financial pressures, and industry consolidation, our supply chain deserves not just attention but requires true partnership,” says Dr. Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany, Central and Eastern Europe.
“Over the last few years, [the global supply chain] has carried a tremendous load.”
Speaking at December 2025’s Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Haidinger acknowledged that the pressures present throughout a complex ecosystem continue to evolve. Recognizing that “integrating stability across the aerospace value chain is essentially the foundation of our long-term success,” the industry is nevertheless having to place renewed focus on inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty as it looks to bolster its ongoing resilience.
For Boeing, this includes “working more transparently than ever with [its] suppliers” through a monthly supplier brief, sharing details of production plans, key performance indicators, and any changes that could impact planned production. “Transparency builds trust, and trust brings alignment,” he urged.