Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
Airbus rolls out prototype A350F in march toward 2026 certification
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus rolled its first A350F out of the factory last week. It now moves to another building for the installation of systems and engines. The first flight is planned for the third quarter next year, as a second freighter is completed to begin regimented flight testing.
Airbus hopes to deliver the first freighter in the second half of 2027.
Figure 1. The first Airbus A350F rolled out of the factory this month. Source: Airbus.
Boeing’s new freighter, the 777-8F, is still a “paper” airplane. With 59 orders from six customers, entry into service (EIS) is now estimated for 2029 (some say 2030). Airbus has more than 80 orders from 13 customers. Airbus claims a 58% market share of new freighter orders.
A350F sales fall short of the 120 sales for new-build A300-600Fs, Airbus’ best-selling freighter, most of which went to package operators FedEx and UPS. However, neither has chosen between the A350F or the 777-8F for their next airplanes to replace the decades-old Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11Fs. The future of these aircraft is uncertain following the Nov. 4 crash of a UPS jet in Louisville (KY).
Within days of the accident, which killed three pilots and 11 people on the ground, Boeing recommended grounding the nearly 60 MD-11 freighters on the US registry for inspections. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made the grounding mandatory shortly after.
Related Stories
- UPS crash presents potential opportunities for Airbus’ A350F
- Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F (Briefing pre-Dubai Air Show)
Emirates seeks larger A350, 777 after big Dubai order
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing landed a big order for its 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show last week, valued at $38bn at list prices for 65 airplanes ($575.8m each). Emirates Airline, already Boeing’s largest customer for the airplane, now has 270 777Xs on order. This represents 43% of the firm orders once added to Boeing’s backlog.
Rendering of an Emirates Airline Boeing 777-9. Credit: Boeing.
Emirates simultaneously said it will support a feasibility study to stretch the 777-9 to a larger capacity 777-10. Airline president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to launch the larger derivative.
Also at the air show, Airbus Commercial airplanes CEO Christian Scherer said Airbus is revisiting a study whether to stretch the A350-1000 (the same size as the Boeing 777-300ER) to a larger “A350-2000” model. This would be the same size as the 777-9.
However, don’t look for Airbus to launch a stretch any time soon, if at all. Airbus previously studied stretching the -1000 and decided the market couldn’t support two airplanes the size of the 777-9. Furthermore, the best target market for these aircraft—the Middle East—already accounts for about 63% of 777X orders before the latest Emirates deal, highly limiting the market potential for an X competitor.
Flydubai orders 737 MAX, in addition to A320neos, at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday flydubai ordered the 150 Airbus A320neo family at the Dubai Air Show. Today, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes and options for 75 more. Flydubai may switch its orders between the 737-8, -9 or -10. The airline already operates the 737 NG and 737 MAX.
Emirates Airline placed an order for eight more Airbus A350-900s, bringing its total order to 73. The list price is $3.4bn for the new deal, or an average of $422m per aircraft.
Buraq Air of Libya signed an MOU for 10 A320neo family aircraft. It becomes a new Airbus customer.
Silk Way West Airlines of Azerbaijan ordered two A350Fs freighter aircraft. The cargo airline now has a total order to four A350Fs.
Airbus dominates orders, commitments on Day 2 of Dubai Air Show
Nov. 18, 2025, © Leeham News News: Airbus notched orders on Day 2 of the Dubai Air Show. Boeing announced a small deals today.
The European OEM gained a new customer, flipping from Boeing, with a major deal from flydubai. Flydubai signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 150 A321neos.
Etihad Airways ordered six A330-900s, becoming a new A330neo customer. The carrier also ordered seven more A350-1000s, bringing its total for the type to 27, and three A350Fs, for a total of 10 aircraft.
Etihad also announced the commitment to lease nine A330-900s from Avolon.
Air Europa signed an MOU with Airbus for up to 40 A350-900s. It becomes a new A350 customer. The airline’s long haul fleet is currently Boeing 787s.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered six more A350-900s.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 30, 2025, © Leeham News: We went through the creation of Airbus’s A321 in the first article, and why its initial sales were slow, and why the sales only picked up after the launch of the A320/A321neo models, and how it came to dominate sales and deliveries in the A320 family after COVID.
For an airline, it’s now a matter of what mix of the different A321neo variants to buy. Is there a large penalty to “misuse” an A321LR or XLR on shorter routes, or can a fleet of the more expensive and heavier models be used on shorter routes to cover gaps and increase their daily utilization without a cost penalty?
To get the answer, we look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this article using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM.
Figure 1. The A321neo with the new Cabin Flex door configuration from 2Q2018 deliveries. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321neo is the star in the Airbus lineup. It lacks competition for at least another year, and its two margin-rich variants, the A321LR and XLR, the Boeing 737 MAX 10 can’t compete with once it gets certified.
- There are extra costs, however, to operate these more capable types. It means these shouldn’t be “misused” too much on normal routes.
Airbus 3Q2025: Still on target in 2025 – gliders remain, changes in 2026
By Karl Sinclair
Oct 30, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus (AB) CEO Guillaume Faury is still confident that the commercial aircraft maker can hit this year’s target of 820 aircraft deliveries, despite the snarls it is dealing with in the supply chain.
At the end of 1H2025, Airbus had a whopping 60 aircraft sans moteurs. That number dropped to 32 by the end of the third quarter. Faury says that number will hit zero by year-end.
Engine issues at both GE and Safran, which power the workhorse A320neo family under the CFM International joint venture, put deliveries badly behind schedule. It was revealed today during the earnings call that the snags are distributed about 50/50 across the engine OEMs. Typically, Safran provides the LEAP 1A engines to Airbus for delivery to European and other non-US airlines and lessors. GE provides them to Airbus for delivery to US airlines and lessors.
Through the first nine months of 2025, Airbus delivered 507 aircraft to customers, up from 497 over the same period in 2024. That leaves a whopping 313 aircraft to be delivered over the final quarter, to meet the guidance figures.
Guillaume Faury, CEO, Airbur Group. Source: Airbus.
To put it all into context, if Airbus were to hit its future targeted rate increases, for the next three months, it would produce:
- 75/mo for the A320neo family in 2027 = 225 aircraft
- 12/mo for the A220 family in 2026 (guidance changed from 14/mo) = 36 aircraft
- 12/mo for the A350 family in 2028 = 36 aircraft
- 5/mo for the A330 family in 2029 = 15 aircraft
Airbus would deliver 312 jets to customers, one shy of the target.
It must deliver on those rates, now.
Boeing sees no new single aisle plane until 2040
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Recent reports that Boeing is working on a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX and a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), or a version of it, are fundamentally true but vastly overhyped. At a conference in Prague earlier this month, Boeing’s Darren Hulst put a damper on this speculation, but said only that Boeing was “not close” to launching a new airplane.
Concept of the Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing hasn’t publicly put any dates on entries into service of its new airplanes, whatever these may be. But internally, Boeing is of the belief that its 737 replacement won’t enter service before 2040.
This doesn’t mean that Boeing’s Product Development unit isn’t working on new airplanes in the background. The company must be ready to respond in case some other OEM introduces a new airplane before then.
Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury publicly said several times that it will introduce a replacement for the A320neo in 2038. But there are some within Airbus who dispute this, concluding that new technology needed to justify a new airplane won’t be ready until the 2040 decade.
The driving factor is, of course, new engines. But as LNA’s 13-part series about new airplane technology and 7-part series about new production technologies demonstrate, engines aren’t the only technology needed. However, without significant advances in engine technology, none of the others is sufficient to justify a new airplane.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus’s A321 was launched in November 1988, around the time the original A320 entered service. Delivery to the first A321 customer, Lufthansa, was in January 1994.
The initial sales of the A321 were modest, with deliveries of the variant languishing between one and three aircraft per month for the first ten years. It wasn’t until after the launch of the A320neo/A321neo in 2010 that sales climbed to 10 per month, 20 years after the first delivery. This shall be compared to the 30 per month after another 10 years in 2024.
The smaller A320 was at 24 per month by 2010 and then touched 35 per month in 2019 before it started to cede the market to the A321neo after COVID. Deliveries in 2024 were at 19 per month.
With the A321 dominating Airbus deliveries from 2022, the question is: which variant of the A321 is suitable for what routes? Does a “misuse” of an A321LR or XLR on short to medium routes mean an operational cost loss compared to a standard A321neo?
We look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this series.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321 started life with low sales, the market preferring the smaller A319 and A320. One of the reasons was the large jump in capacity between the A320 and A321, more than 40 seats.
- By the introduction of the A320neo series, the market had developed to higher capacities. After COVID, the A321neo took over as the dominant A320 range variant.
Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 22, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus reaffirmed its goal for the A350F to enter service in the second half of 2027, despite some customers telling LNA that EIS may slip to 2028. The new certification environment prompted by the Boeing 737 MAX crisis may mean a longer-than-anticipated review by Europe’s regulator, EASA, customers say.
Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing for Airbus, said that, so far, the 2H2027 EIS remains the target.
Rendering of the Airbus A350F. Assembly of the first two airplanes is underway. First flight is expected next year, and the entry-into-service goal is the 2H2027. Credit: Airbus.
“I’ve spoken to both the chief engineer and the deputy program manager and the program manager about this recently because there are a lot of things in the rumor mill going around about this,” Hamilton said. “The answer is no, the basic structure there for the requirements that we’ve met is all still there. It’s the same as it was, and we are going toward that to meet the requirements from both the EASA and the FAA. So, as I stated, the EIS is in the second half of 2027 and remains so.”
Hamilton, who is no relation to this author, said that Airbus has worked with regulators since 2022 to understand the certification requirements.
He made his remarks at the Cargo Facts conference in Nashville (TN).