Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
GE, Raytheon report orders surges, but labor and supply chain headwinds
By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 24, 2023, © Leeham News – Aerospace suppliers GE and Raytheon both reported fourth-quarter sales surges, as the commercial aviation industry continued its recovery from the worst of the Covid pandemic.
Both companies also project strong sales growth in 2023, but warned investors that there are lingering supply chain issues and labor shortages that could hold them back.
“While we are broadly beginning to see our supply chain improve, it is not yet at the levels we need,” Raytheon CFO Chris Calio told stock analysts during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Tuesday. “We are assuming a recovery as we move into the back half of the year.”
- GE reports backlog near 10,000 for LEAP
- Raytheon expects double-digit growth for Collins, P&W
- Supply chain improving, but still tangled
- Raytheon talks about Boeing, Airbus rates
Read more
A deep dive into the single-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing’s share of outstanding single-aisle orders has fallen significantly behind Airbus. If we include the order book for single-aisle aircraft seating 100 or more passengers of Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, Embraer, and UAC, the American OEM’s market share is now 37% (Airbus has 58%, COMAC 3%, Embraer 2%, and UAC 2%).
Richard Aboulafia sees a risk that Boeing’s market share in the single-aisle market will dip below 30% without the entry into service of a new aircraft before 2035. Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said that it is viable for the American OEM’s single-aisle market share to stay around 40%.
A321neo Credit: Airbus
In the 2022 Boeing outlook, LNA also noted that there are significantly more A320ceo than 737 NG operators. A broader operator base means more opportunities to place new orders with a more diversified group of airlines. In the context of no new single-aisle family entering service in the next 10 years, convincing operators to “flip” to the competition will be the primary way to increase market share.
Exclusively looking at the nominal order books and A320ceo and 737 NG operators does not provide a comprehensive view of Airbus’ and Boeing’s relative positions in the single-aisle market, though.
In their 2022-2041 commercial market outlooks (CMO), Airbus and Boeing indicated that nearly half of all single-aisle deliveries would replace older-generation aircraft. Looking at the existing in-service fleet of older-generation aircraft provides a better picture of replacement order opportunities by the OEM.
LNA investigates in this article the existing order books of the five major OEMs and operator bases to better assess their relative competitive positions and quantify the current replacement order opportunities.
Summary
- A comprehensive single-aisle fleet snapshot;
- Breaking down the order books between replacements and growth;
- Keep track of order choices for older-generation operators;
- Remaining replacement order opportunities;
- A word about single-aisle freighters.
The Airbus A220-500, a deep-dive analysis
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 20, 2023, © Leeham News: It’s a question “of when, not if” there will be an A220-500, we conclude in Tuesday’s article.
We have known about the -500 since the Bombardier days. A longer CS300 was part of the original concepts when the CS100 and CS300 were developed to safeguard that no decision on the smaller variants precluded a larger variant.
As Airbus A321 grows its share of the A320 lines’ output, an A220-500 makes sense, but only when the two A220 final assembly lines in Mirabel and Mobile can produce enough A220s to satisfy demand.
What would be the characteristics of an A220-500? We use our aircraft design and performance model to determine what is possible.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500 that takes 157 passengers. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The Airbus A220 has the base capabilities for a stretch to an A220-500.
- Some changes/improvements are needed, but these are limited to detailed changes beyond a fuselage stretch.
Airbus CCO: “When,” not “if” A220-500 comes; a deep-dive analysis
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer has been open: it is a matter of “when,” not “if” Airbus proceeds with a stretched A220-500.
A220-500. Credit: Leeham News.
The A220-500 would be the third member of the A220 family. The A220-100 is a 110-seat airplane in a typical two-class configuration. The A220-300 seats 135 passengers. The A220-500 would seat around 157, competing head-on with the Airbus A320neo at 152 and the Boeing 737-8 at 164.
The -500 was projected by Bombardier as the CS500. Bombardier focused its commercial aviation future on the C Series. In doing so, it neglected sales efforts on the CRJ and Q400 regional jet and turboprop. Development of the C Series, like programs at Airbus and Boeing, ran billions of dollars over budget. Developed concurrently with two corporate jet programs that also ran well over budget, Bombardier was on a path toward bankruptcy.
Airbus purchased a controlling interest in the CSeries program in 2017 and now owns 75% of the program. But so far, Airbus hasn’t stemmed the losses that began under Bombardier. Without the heft of Airbus’ buying power, Bombardier entered costly contracts with suppliers. Airbus has been renegotiating the contracts, with some success, but not enough. Ramping production up to 14 a month by 2025 from the current 6/mo is a key goal. Demand is there and the higher rate will lower costs.
But the A220-500 will compete with Airbus’ own A320neo. So, the plan to launch the A220-500 has this cloud over the decision.
Some believe that the A220-500 will be so much more efficient than the 737-8 that it will “kill” Boeing’s backbone airplane. LNA doesn’t agree.
This article is the first of three that analyzes the A220’s position in the market and the economics of a potential A220-500 vis-à-vis the A320neo and 737-8 MAX.
Summary
- Is the A320neo already on its way out, prompting plans for the A220-500?
- Talk of adding CFM LEAP to provide an engine choice.
- How does A220-500 compare economically with A320neo, 737-8?
HOTR: Air India faces a host of problems as owners negotiate massive jet deal
By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 11, 2023, © Leeham News:
Air India – now owned by the Indian industrial giant Tata Sons – is reportedly close to placing what may end up being the largest commercial aircraft order in the industry’s history.
Air India image of a Boeing 787 in the airline’s livery.
The market is a key one for Boeing, especially right now, after it has been locked out of China because of geopolitical tensions. Air India, in particular, is said to be negotiating with Boeing to take up to 50 737s originally built for Chinese airlines, as part of a massive order that could total 500 planes.
As LNA reported back in September, Boeing has about 140 737 MAXes ordered by Chinese airlines or leasing companies ordering on their behalf. That’s about 50% of the total number of built but undelivered MAXes Boeing had in storage going into last year’s fourth quarter.
It’s fortunate for Air India and Boeing both that the airline has a need for a lot of new aircraft at a time when Boeing needs to move a lot of planes, but adding new aircraft is just one of many major challenges Air India’s new owners face right now.
SUMMARY:
- 2023 in India: Two airlines dominate
- Air India may snap up Chinese whitetails
- Tata has a lot of work to do
Airbus and Boeing 2022 orders and deliveries
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 10, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing released their 2022 delivery and order data today. With a delivery of 661 airliners, Airbus is a 38% larger supplier than Boeing at 480 aircraft.
Airbus had a target of 700 deliveries but came short due to supplier constraints in a year of COVID recovery, raising energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and labor shortages. Boeing is not out of a tunnel caused by 737 Max crashes and 787 quality problems.
On the order side, Airbus booked 820 net orders versus Boeing’s 774. The Airbus backlog is 33% larger at 7,239 aircraft versus Boeing’s 5,430 jets.
Outlook 2023: ramping up production at Airbus
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 2, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that ramping up single-aisle production would be Airbus’ major 2022 challenge. Increasing narrowbody aircraft production on the A220 and A320 lines proved more difficult than envisioned for the European OEM.
The war in Ukraine, which led to sanctions and higher energy bills, compounded the challenges for Airbus and its supply chain. Among the suppliers behind delivery schedules, engine manufacturers received the most attention earlier in the year. The situation has improved since then.
Airbus did not launch any new aircraft variants in 2022. While the A321XLR flight campaign started in June 2022, the program has accumulated a six-month delay. Entry into service is now planned for 2Q2024 instead of 4Q2023. The delays are caused mainly by the certification of the new rear center fuel tank into the fuselage.
Despite a production line full for several years, Airbus continued accumulating healthy numbers of A320neo orders, including from Chinese carriers. The cancellation of AirAsia X’s A330neo order improved the family’s order book quality. Net orders for the A350 family, including the freighter variant, have been muted but should pick up as long-haul traffic recovers. Airbus’ low point has been the ongoing court battle with Qatar Airways on the A350 paint issue, leading to the cancellation of the carrier’s order book.
Last but not least, Airbus announced many ecoAviation and sustainability initiatives throughout the year, culminating at its Annual Summit Nov. 30-Dec. 1.
Will 2023 be more of the same for the European OEM?
Summary
- Behind-schedule ramp-up on both single-aisle lines;
- New orders will determine the pace of the twin-aisle ramp-up;
- Avoiding further A321XLR certification delays;
- Robust cash flows allow sizable R&D spend on ecoAviation;
- No new product development and more A330neo orders?
Pontifications: LNA’s Top 10 stories of 2022
Dec. 26, 2022, © Leeham News: This year has been a year of recovery.
By Scott Hamilton
Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery from shortages in the supply chain, layoffs during the pandemic and from financial losses. Boeing continues to struggle in its recovery from the 2019 grounding of the 737 MAX and 2020 suspension of deliveries of the 787.
This year saw a resumption of the big international European air shows since the pandemic—Farnborough. There was great anticipation that Boeing was working on new airplane programs in earnest for the first time in three years.
And disappointments.
Here’s a review of the Top 10 stories LNA published, by readership.
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
HOTR: Supply chain hurts A220 assembly flow, big push to meet year-end delivery target
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus’ woes with the A320 family production line are widely reported. So are Boeing’s woes with the 737 line.
Less well reported are the woes Airbus has with the A220 production lines in Montreal and Mobile (AL).
LNA was informed two weeks ago that the A220 line is its own serious production challenges traced to the supply chain. Rumors circulated that Airbus may shut down the lines to allow the suppliers to catch up.
Airbus’s Montreal office acknowledged challenges but denied the final assembly lines were going to be or were considered for shut down temporarily.
“In order to protect our operations in a complex environment, some ad hoc short-term planning adjustments have been made to align with our supply chain in order to protect our deliveries to our committed customers. We continue to focus on the aircraft that are almost ready for delivery in 2022 and there is no shutdown either of FALs nor pre-FALs planned,” a spokesperson emailed LNA.
United orders 100 Boeing 787s, 100 Boeing 737s, defers Airbus A350 again
Dec. 13, 2022, © Leeham News: United Airlines today announced a massive order for 100 Boeing 787s and 100 Boeing 737 MAXes. Sub-types weren’t announced. Neither were the engine types for the 787s, which are powered by either GE Aerospace’s GEnx or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000.
An order for 45 Airbus A350s was deferred again, this time to at least 2030. Deliveries were to begin in 2027. The order had been deferred at least twice previously. Reuters reported “United CEO Scott Kirby told reporters ‘the right time for 350 versus (787) conversation is when we’re replacing the bulk of the 777s, which really doesn’t begin to the end of the decade.’” Most observers believe this order will be canceled eventually.
Related articles
At least one more big airline order, Air India, is expected before the end of the year.