Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Airbus details A350F specifications
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
November 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus has given more information about what led to their new freighter, the A350F, and its data. Scott Hamilton talked to Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer at the IATA AGM on Oct. 3-5 in Boston, and Bjorn Fehrm spoke to Head of Freighter marketing, Crawford Hamilton, about the technical details. (The two Hamiltons are not related.)
The A350F is the most capable new-build freighter Airbus has designed, posing the most serious threat to Boeing’s dominance of jet freighters since the dawn of the jet age. Some expect Boeing to respond next week with a program launch of the 777XF, but LNA understands this won’t be the case.
“The market has asked us to produce it,” said Scherer of the A350F. “So we launched the program based on our own belief of the strength of the business case.”
“The A350F beats the competing production freighter (Boeing’s 777F, our note) on payload, volume, and economics,” says Crawford Hamilton. “We have taken extra care to make the door larger and the floor extra sturdy to ease loading planning and execution. The A350F will be the freight forwarder’s preferred machine.”
The Airbus new freighter, the A350F. Source: Airbus.
Single aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic at low load factors, Part 3?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of an Airbus A321XLR and A330-200 on our thin route over the Atlantic. The XLR improves the capabilities of the A321 quite a bit, not only on range but also on load-carrying ability.
The more efficient use of the space below the floor leaves room for cargo once the passenger bags are loaded. The margin race between the A321XLR and the A330-200 depended on the cargo pricing in the end. Now we finish the series with a more challenging setup for the twin-aisle.
We assume we use an A330-900, a nominal 300 seater on the Dublin to Newark route with only 130 passengers per departure. The load factor is then at 43%. Can the twin-aisle still earn the margin of an A321XLR on this route by virtue of its cargo capacity?
Summary
- The margin generation of the A321XLR versus the A330-200 was close. It boiled down to cargo pricing.
- The A330-900 adds costs but also more cargo room. Will it cover the extra costs?
Air Asia asks Airbus for A321F; chief commercial officer says not yet
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Air Asia is in talks with Airbus to develop a factory-built A321F, according to a report last week from Reuters. LNA first reported in August that Airbus is pondering a new-build A321F.
Airbus A321 P2F: could a new-production A321F be coming? Photo credit: Airbus.
“AirAsia would seek to convert a “meaningful chunk” of its 362 orders for the passenger version of the A321neo narrowbody to a dedicated freighter, said Pete Chareonwongsak, CEO of AirAsia logistics division Teleport,” Reuters wrote.
But although Airbus has had talks with a few customers, an A321F is not a priority, the firm’s chief commercial officer told LNA last month.
Jean Pierson, key figure in early Airbus, dies at 80
Nov. 4, 2021: Reuters reports that Jean Pierson, a key figure in the early decades of Airbus, died overnight in France.
Jean Pierson. Photo credit: Airbus.
Single aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic on thin routes? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of an Airbus A321LR and A330-200 on a thin route over the Atlantic. We found the Widebody could compensate for its higher operating costs as long as the route has a sizable cargo stream and that this is paid at today’s elevated air freight prices. The A321LR has extra center tanks that take away all cargo space and thus has negligible cargo revenue.
Now we repeat the analysis with the more capable A321XLR. It stores four ACTs worth of extra fuel in the space of two. This leaves room for cargo. Will it be enough to restore the supremacy in margin generation over the twin-aisle?
Rendering of the A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary
- The check last week surprised with how close a mid-age A330-200 can come in margin generation to an A321LR on a thin route, thanks to its higher cargo revenue.
- The A321XLR, with its more efficient tank setup, rebalances the fight in favor of the single-aisle.
Engine OEMs pushing ahead for next airplane, even as Boeing pauses
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: David Calhoun may not be anywhere near ready to launch the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), but the engine makers are actively researching and developing engines to hang of whatever that NBA will be.
Calhoun, the CEO of Boeing, repeatedly said the NBA will be more about reducing production costs through advanced design and production methods. For some time, Calhoun said the next engines available on the assumed timeline—to about 2030—will have only 10% better economics than today’s engines.
And 10% isn’t enough for the airlines or the commensurate reduction in emissions.
CFM/GE Aviation/Safran are developing an “open fan” engine that will reduce fuel burn and emissions by 20%. A target date for entry into service is in the 2030 decade. The open fan builds on R&D of open rotors that have been underway since the era of the Boeing 727 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80.
Pratt & Whitney sees an evolution of its Geared Turbofan engine. The GTF was under development for 20 years before an operating engine made it onto the Bombardier C Series (now the Airbus 220), the Airbus A320, and United Aircraft MC-21. The GTF also was selected for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, which launched the GTF program. However, Mitsubishi pulled the plug on the MRJ/SpaceJet program last year. PW remains committed to the GTF for future engines.
Rolls-Royce is developing the Ultra Fan and Advanced engines. GE’s Open Fan and RR’s engines adopt geared turbofan technology pioneered by PW but add new technology.
LNA takes a look at the new engines for the NBA or any other competing airplane in a series of articles.
Boeing and Airbus freighter battle
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing yesterday gave its clearest indication yet that it’s moving closer to launching the 777X Freighter.
In a message to employees in conjunction with its third quarter earnings release Oct. 27, CEO David Calhoun said, “We’re progressing in development across several key franchise defense programs, and on the 737-7, 737-10 and 777X development and certification efforts. We’re also evaluating the timing of a freighter version of the 777X and are beginning to lay the foundation for our next commercial airplane development program.” News reports earlier suggest Boeing may launch the XF at the Dubai Air Show.
On the earnings call, Calhoun was slightly more expansive. “Given the continued robust freighter demand and the compelling economics of the 777X, we are currently evaluating the timing of launching a freighter version of our 777X airplane.”
A Lufhansa Boeing 777F freighter.
Single-aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic on thin routes?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The headline seems like a no-brainer. On long thin routes over the Atlantic, we have learned a Boeing 757, or its replacement, the Airbus A321LR, is the right aircraft (as long as it’s within its range).
This was the situation in a pre-pandemic market where freight yields were half of today. The single-aisle has lower operating costs than the widebodies, and if the passenger stream and range fits, it was the transport to have on the route.
With the high cargo prices, does this change? We check for several Atlantic routes.
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo challenge the mantra; a single aisle is preferred for trans-Atlantic service as long as the passenger number and range fits.
- Going forward it will be all about the cargo prices and the number of passengers to transport.
HOTR: Lessors warn Airbus
By the Leeham News team
Oct. 26, 2021, © Leeham News: Two mega-lessors warned Airbus against dramatically upping production rates of the A320 family, London’s Financial Times reported Oc
t. 23.
“[B]old plans to speed up production are unjustified given still subdued demand from airlines after the coronavirus pandemic,” The Times wrote. Airbus notified suppliers earlier this year to study going to a production rate of 70 aircraft per month by 2025. Rates might go even higher, to 75/mo, Airbus said.
“The chief executives of Avolon and AerCap, wrote to Guillaume Faury, Airbus chief executive, in recent weeks to express their concerns that the aircraft market would not support the most aggressive increases in output rates, according to four people familiar with the situation. A surge in supply of new aircraft, potentially flooding the market, could push down the value of the lessors’ existing fleets. They make their money by renting to airlines,” the paper wrote.
Airbus sees encouraging signs of wide-body demand recovery
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus sees some “encouraging” signs wide-body demand is recovering from the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Christian Scherer. Source: Airbus.
Passenger demand is nearing-pre-pandemic levels in key areas of the world where single-aisle aircraft are used. Long-haul international demand remains suppressed, however. Some don’t forecast a return to normal for up to two more years. Others forecast a recovery on key routes next year.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, is optimistic.
“I would say that on the wide-body market, you see encouraging signs,” he said during a press gaggle at the IATA AGM Oct. 3-5 in Boston. “Maybe that has to do with the fact that the ecosystem at large is realizing that the best thing they can do in the short- and medium-term, towards that whole global objective of sustainable air transportation is to equip themselves with the most fuel-efficient and therefore eco-friendly airplanes.
“I think that against that backdrop and the opening of more international corridors sees a regained interest on the wide-body side as well. Now it’s lagging the single arch really and there is no scoop here that rates in the long-range airplanes are going to change imminently, but the general sentiment is positive on the wide-bodies as well and that’s really good.”