Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
Bombardier sees more C Series orders this year
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. There will be paywall and freewall posts throughout the FIA16 this week.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Winning major orders from Air
Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
Canada and Delta Air Lines earlier this year and the entry into service of the CS100 this Friday with launch customer Swiss International Air should give Bombardier’s bet-the-company gamble a boost for more orders this year.
This is the prediction by Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
During an interview with LNC on a media demo flight of the CS100 at the Farnborough Air Show, Comer said the smaller BBD can compete with the behemoths Airbus and Boeing for orders in the 125-150 seat sector.
Summary
Comer says:
- Boeing’s prospective 737-7.5 still won’t be competitive.
- The CS100 is better than the Embraer EJet-E2.
- Embraer’s complaints of unfair competition because of Canadian government investment are unfounded.
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Boeing MAX program progresses well
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. There will be a combination of paywall and freewall posts.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Farnborough Air Show: The Boeing 737 MAX flight test
Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. AIN Online photo via Google Images.
program is going well, with the company looking for ways to add improvements to the airplane even before it enters service next year.
Improvements, which include airplane and engine components, are intended to provide dispatch reliability close to the 99.98% of the 737 NG and extend on-wing time for the reliable CFM56 engine that has powered the 737 since introduction of the 737-300 in 1984, says Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the 737 program.
Summary
- Many of the major tests are completed.
- Boeing, CFM see opportunities to insert components into the LEAP-1B during flight testing to extend on-wing time from entry-into-service.
- MAX 7X (or “7.5”) can be done within the “confines” of the current MAX program.
- A larger MAX isn’t ready to go yet.
Bjorn’s Corner: Over the oceans, use FANS
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have over the last Corners described the future Air Traffic Management systems as a combination of ADS-B and Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications, CPDLC.
What to do when there are no ground stations that can receive the ADS-B broadcast of the aircraft’s position and where it’s going? Or the aircraft’s VHF based CPDLC?
We now talk about crossing the large waters where there are no ground stations for neither ADS-B signals nor VHF communications, whether by voice or data.
Figure 1. North Atlantic Tracks (NAT) going eastbound. Source: Nav Canada
The solutions over these Oceanic areas have to be based on the aircraft following predetermined tracks, Figure 1, and continuously issuing position reports to ground controllers that keep the aircraft separated along the tracks based on the reports. We now cover how this has been done historically and the way forward.
IATA, Lufthansa cargo reports are discouraging
July 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Going into the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) next week, ominous signs continue to emerge about the health of the air cargo
Photo via Google images.
industry.
The International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Wednesday said yields and traffic remain under pressure. Freight tonne kilometers fell 0.9% year-over-year, IATA reported.
“Yields remained pressured as freight capacity measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) increased by 4.9% year-on-year,” IATA said. “reight demand decreased or flat lined in May across all regions with the exception of Europe and the Middle East. These regions recorded growth in air cargo volumes of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in May, compared to the same period last year.”
Lufthansa Cargo saw yields in a “landside” drop, according to a Bloomberg report.
Farnborough Preview #3: Analysts weigh in
July 6, 2017: The industrial portion of the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) officially begins Monday and runs through Thursday. There are also some special events Sunday. LNC will be reporting from the Show throughout the week.
Below are a few final previews from aerospace analysts, followed by other analyst reports for the last week. There will be no Weekly Analyst Synopsis next week because of the Show.
Highlights below:
- Expectations for orders modest-to-slow. (Credit Suisse, JP Morgan).
- Southwest MAX deferral (Credit Suisse).
- Airlines face softer environment. (JP Morgan.)
- MOM Aircraft and 777X. (Buckingham Research.)
- Spirit Aerosystems looks to A350 charge.
Book Review: The Crash Detectives
July 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Crash Detectives, by Christine Negroni, © 2016. Penguin Books. Available on Amazon.com.
As an avid follower of The Smithsonian Channel’s “Air Disaster” series and The Weather Channel’s “Why Planes Crash,” as well as knowing Christine Negroni, I was anxious to read her new book, The Crash Detectives. (Negroni is also the author of Deadly Departure, about TWA Flight 800.)
Negroni is no wanna-be aviation disaster geek. Her resume qualifies her to understand aviation accidents and speak and write with knowledge about them.
Negroni writes about dozens of aviation accidents and mysteries. Some of these are well known (the de Havilland Comet I accidents, for example). Some were miraculous outcomes (United Airlines 232, US Airways 1549, Qantas Airways 32). Some are ancient history (pre-World War II, including the disappearance of Amelia Earhart.)
Among the most interesting are the accidents in which hypoxia of the pilots are involved. These make fascinating reading. And it is hypoxia that is the leading cause of Negroni’s theory of one of commercial aviation’s most infamous mystery.
Pontifications: Boeing is back
By Scott Hamilton
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s looking like all the pain and agony of the 787 development is behind Boeing. (Except for the deferred production costs, of course.)
Boeing is back into airplane development mode.
To be sure, only one of these is a new airplane. The others are derivatives. But at least Boeing seems to be on the move after slowing the train (to mix the metaphors) considerably following the 787 debacle.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Southwest’s MAX deferral
- Bloomberg News reports that Boeing is mulling a 777-10. We hinted at this last July with the large GE9X development. See our Paywall Farnborough preview this coming Monday for more information.
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Introduction
Southwest Airlines deferred 67 Boeing 737 MAX deliveries and some viewed this as a negative for the program. Photo via Google images.
June 29, 2016, © Leeham Co.: News last week that Southwest Airlines deferred 67 Boeing 737 MAX deliveries three year caused some to conclude that this is a harbinger of bad news for Boeing and the MAX program.
LNC disagrees with this conclusion.
Summary
- Southwest says it’s about not having a “subset” fleet of the 737 Classic when the MAX enters service.
- The airline also says it needs to spend more on technology, an area where WN has long lagged its competitors.
- Accelerated retirement of the 737-300/500 is a key reason for the fleet planning changes.
- Long-standing fatigue issues with the Classic remain a problem.
Boeing launches PFS 2.0
Update, 0815 PDT July 7: Boeing Corporate Headquarters responded to our questions. The transcript has been added to the article below.
Boeing wasn’t shy about who it targeted, or punished. Even supply-chain giant United Technologies was placed on Boeing’s no-fly list when it balked at the onerous demand.
Now Boeing is moving forward with PFS 2.0, a second round of demands.
Summary
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21 Comments
Posted on July 7, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
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