AirInsight’s Ernie Arvai has a long analysis of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan and CFM LEAP engine.
It is very detailed, and involves information obtained from both companies.
During yesterday’s tele-press conference by Boeing with a program update for the 737 MAX, 737 chief program engineer John Hamilton frequently said the MAX has a 7% operating cost advantage over the A320neo.
He also touted the advantages of the 737-900ER over the A321, with the obvious implications that the 737-9 MAX will have an advantage over the A321neo.
Here is a recap by the Puget Sound Business Journal (there are many others which may be found through Google News).
AirInsight, our affiliate, has written several pieces of the 737NG and 737 MAX vs the A320 family, both legacy and NEO.
See the following articles for additional color on this debate.
Note: As a follow up to our previous post about the 787 break-even, Blog by Javier added a third post to simplify his very detailed analysis. You may jump to the link here.
Also: AirInsight has this commentary on the MAX.
Boeing today (Nov. 3) announced it now has more than 600 commitments for the 737 MAX, as well as confirming the 68 inch fan selection and discussed some other issues related to MAX.
Our immediately preceding post synopsized Jim Albaugh’s presentation to Goldman Sachs. Shortly after this, Boeing offered up to the media a tele-press conference with John Hamilton, 737 chief program engineer, to update the status.
One of the things he also referred to was the 600+ commitments by eight airlines for the MAX. Based on questions from the media, focusing on when “commitments” become “orders,” we thought it might be useful for the Reader to discuss this.
At an appearance with Goldman Sachs today, Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, announced there are now more than 600 commitments for the 737 MAX.
Boeing slide from Goldman Sachs investors’ conference Nov. 3, 2011
Selling the 707: Fortune magazine reprinted this article from 1957 of the Selling of the 707. Pretty good return to nostalgia.
From Twitter: .@Boeing CFO James Bell to retire next April. Corporate Controller Greg Smith to replace him.
Republic Airways Holdings is sliding deeper into financial trouble as a result of Frontier Airlines. Aviation Week has a detailed story that reports the Embraer E190 order will be deferred and casts doubts about the viability of the Airbus A320neo and Bombardier CSeries orders. RC has an earnings call November 8.
Airline Books: Arcadia Publishing, which is largely known for specialty books about local cities, towns and topics throughout the US, has a number of books about airlines. We were at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field and discovered this line of books, which is new to us. We picked up books on Northwest Airlines and Pan Am but there are a number of others here.
Leeham.net back up, finally: After two months (don’t ask) our corporate website is back up.
Update: Javier has answered (or responded to, depending on your viewpoint) many of our reader comments here.
Original Post:
A blog of which we were previously unaware came to our attention late last week that has the best, most comprehensive analysis of the 787 financial picture that we have seen anywhere by anyone.
This post is very long. Called “The Blog By Javier,” it is written by Javier Irastorza. He works for Airbus Military on the A400M program, which will automatically make his analysis suspect in some quarters. But we were darned impressed by this analysis.
For those who don’t believe there was a connection between the Cargolux-Boeing-GE dispute and the 787 and Qatar, watch the Dubai Air Show. We’re hearing Qatar will sign announce it has selected GEnx for the 787.
Speaking of Max, Boeing didn’t say much about the 737 MAX on the earnings call. In fact, Jim McNerney was downright ambiguous. Boeing is still considering where to build the airplane and it’s still talking to customers. Boeing said in August at MAX’s unveiling that design details would be forthcoming the following month. November is around the corner and we’re still waiting.
Boeing’s union nemesis, IAM 751, is already reaching out to membership about “wants” for contract negotiations next year. Overhanging negotiations will be the NLRB complaint–testimony is supposed to begin next month–and the MAX assembly site. Our prediction: this will be purely a testosterone contest. We have dour predictions at this point.
Airbus and the A350: assembly is supposed to begin by year end with first flight next year. We’ll see.
Update, from 7:30 am-the Earnings Call:
Jim McNerney (JM):
James Bell (JB)
McNerney
Q&A
Original Post:
Boeing set its long-awaited accounting block for the 787 at 1,100, an announcement coming with the third quarter earnings release today. Boeing said, “At quarter end, the 787 had 821 units sold firm and approximately 200 options. The company established the initial accounting quantity for the 787 program at 1,100 units, consistent with accounting practices applied on other new airplane programs.”
Previous airplane programs were typically set at 400, according to a good analysis by Jon Ostrower.
Ostrower, in Hong Kong following the 787’s first flight (and thus up long before we were), had this quick take on the earnings announcement and some observations about the 787 ramp up and deliveries this year.
Boeing also lowered its delivery forecast for the 787 and 747-8 to just 15-20 combined. Originally Boeing forecast 25-40 evenly split between the two airplane types then in July 25-30, weighted toward the 747. Since then, Atlas Air canceled three 747-8s that would have been delivered and Boeing’s internal plan for the 787 has been eight while key suppliers have been telling us four-six. Boeing said in its press release today that two thirds of the deliveries will be 747s, or 10-13. Thus, this means 5-7 787s will be delivered this year if forecasts are met.
You have to hand it to the public relations staff for some real chutzpah.
Air Berlin has been struggling for years, over-ordering aircraft and canceling some of them (Boeing 787s among them). Today the airline deferred Airbus and Boeing airplanes and issues a press release entitled, “AirBerlin optimizes Airbus and Boeing order book.”
Crosscut Seattle, an on-line only news outlet (and one we consider to be quite good) does occasional in-depth think pieces. Today it has one about the burning question to Washington State: where will the Boeing 737 MAX be built?
We’re alluded to this question and potential sites in several previous posts, including our recent one about the earthquake in San Antonio (TX), which is suggested to us to be on the short list for the MAX site.
Crosscut is known for calling shots as it sees them and it fires one at the King County Aerospace Alliance formed by the county executive with the MAX in mind.
Crosscut’s conclusion is largely correct, but it misses the point: King County government has been AWOL for years in promoting aerospace, a short-coming of previous executives who rested on complacency.
It’s about time the county got in on the action.