Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Boeing, Alaska team for next round of ecoDemonstrator research
By Scott Hamilton
June 3, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing and Alaska Airlines today outlined a five month ecoDemonstrator program in a series of tests designed to “green up” commercial aviation.
Boeing partnered with airlines and suppliers beginning in 2012. Alaska is the eighth airline to participate. A Boeing 737-9 will be the current platform.
Boeing will flight test 20 technologies and ideas with Alaska beginning June 29 and ending Dec. 2.
Not all ideas fall strictly within “new technologies.” Some are weight-reduction initiatives that aggregate to lower airplane weight, which in turn reduces fuel burn. This in turn reduces carbon emissions.
But other ideas directly go to environmental efforts addressing noise, emissions and now COVID infectious worries.
Widebody availability set to surge; could new entrants take advantage?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
June 3, 2021, © Leeham News: Lessors are expected to write down the value of their widebodies as the long-haul travel slump appears set to extend well beyond this year, LNA reported last week.
A tidal wave of excess widebodies has reduced ownership costs to historic lows. Prices will only go lower as lessors finally initiate distressed-asset sales, and lease rates will continue to fall as used widebody inventory grows.
A confluence of factors, topped by the availability of lower-cost used widebodies, could increase the cost advantage of low-cost carriers over legacy competitors – at the same time reduced business travel and lower yields reduce the gap between legacy and LCC unit revenue.
Summary
- Widebody availability is set to increase steadily throughout the decade.
- What airplanes are likely to be most attractive?
- Sustainably lower costs could enable low-cost carriers to overcome a shrunken “revenue gap.”
Pontifications: The Wing of Tomorrow and Airbus’ future
May 31, 2021, © Leeham News: It’s not as if Boeing doesn’t have enough challenges right now.
By Scott Hamilton
Airbus seems ready to up the ante by re-winging the A320 series, according to an article last week by Bloomberg News.
The “Wing for Tomorrow,” as Airbus calls it, has been in the works for years. It’s a composite wing, designed for a new production process. The process will be quicker, more efficient and less costly than the cumbersome, expensive autoclave used today.
Public discussion about an enlarged A321 has been around for years. Variously called the A321 Plus Plus or A322, the broad concept is a 12 seat stretch (Bloomberg suggests it could be 24 seats), more powerful engines and the new composite wing. Bloomberg wrote that the wing, with a wider span, could have folding wingtips.
This A322 would be a true Boeing 757 in terms of capacity. Range would be well into the “Middle of the Market” definition proffered by Boeing for the better part of a decade.
But what about the A320 and A319?
Industry stands together on safety
By Scott Correa
Special to Leeham News
May 27, 2021, © Leeham News: Forty-two years ago this week, I puked at work.
American Airlines flight 191 moments before crashing less than a mile after takeoff at Chicago O’Hare Airport. Source: Wikipedia.
On May 25, 1979, an American Airlines McDonnell Douglas DC-10 crashed on take off from Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. Within minutes, it was known that the No. 1 engine separated from the airplane just after the airplane was committed.
The aircraft gained a few hundred feet before rolling over on its left wing, crashing into a trailer park. All 271 on board and two people on the ground were killed.
The Federal Aviation Administration immediately grounded all DC-10s in the US because of the engine separation. Regulators elsewhere in the world followed suit.
HOTR: Ryanair’s O’Leary pissed, but wants 737 MAX 10
By the Leeham News Team
May 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Michael O’Leary may be royally pissed as Boeing, but he’s nevertheless in negotiations for a large order of 737-10 MAXes.
In the year-end earnings call last week and in an appearance on CNBC, O’Leary unloaded on Boeing’s Seattle management team over delivery delays for the 737-8200.
O’Leary, the CEO of Ryanair, didn’t mince words—he never does. This is, after all, the guy who at a press conference talked about his potential trans-Atlantic low fare operation providing blow jobs to business class travelers. Sitting next to him was his female translator, who clearly was nonplussed. (You can look it up on YouTube.)
Boeing’s dilemma in the 125-170 seat sector
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
May 24, 2021, © Leeham News: NMA. 777X. The 200-270 seat sector.
While Boeing grapples about what to do in the 200-270 seat sector, the heart of the single-aisle market represented by the 737-8 and A320neo faces a replacement decision, too. Photo: Boeing.
A lot of attention goes to these two Boeing airplane programs and the +200 seat sector.
However, the single-aisle market below 170 seats is the next arena that needs updating.
Many expect Boeing to decide by 2023 whether to launch a new airplane program in the +200 market. Airbus is waiting to see what Boeing does before moving.
Boeing’s heart of the single-aisle market is, of course, the 737-8 and before it, the 737-800. There are thousands of the for former on order and in service of the latter.
Update (2): Boeing rehires aircraft inspectors
By Bryan Corliss
May 18, 2021 © Leeham News — The Boeing Co. has quietly recalled at least some of as many as 900 quality control inspectors who were laid off in 2019 as part of a drive to adopt car-industry manufacturing processes in aerospace manufacturing.
The move comes after the union for the inspectors – Machinists District Lodge 751 – pushed the company to prove that getting rid of inspectors could be done without risking quality issues and would actually improve production times.
“Our union’s goal is to save Boeing from making decisions that could be detrimental to (its) future and ours,” union leaders said in its monthly AeroMechanic newsletter. “A second set of eyes is a critical component of building Boeing airplanes and necessary for the long-term success of the company.”
A union spokeswoman said she was unable to say precisely how many of the inspectors were initially laid off, and how many have been brought back since the recalls started. Boeing’s media relations team did not respond to a written list of questions on the topic.
Updated: Boeing provided a written statement that said, in part, that there has been “no reduction in quality staffing related to changes in our inspection approach,” despite reports in 2019 that a new approach to quality control would lead to far fewer human inspections, and inspectors.
Update 2, May 24: Boeing provided additional information today about the reported layoffs of verification inspectors, first reported by The Seattle Times in 2019.
Boeing acknowledged that a former Boeing executive told The Times then that up to 900 inspectors could be laid off that year. It was this 2019 report that formed the basis of LNA’s introductory paragraph.
However, in response to a specific question by LNA, today Boeing said there were no cuts in quality inspectors in 2019.
There were layoffs in 2020, following the eruption of the COVID-19 global pandemic, which occurred during the extended grounding of the 737 MAX. Boeing declined to specify the number.
“We don’t provide details about employment in specific teams,” a spokesman wrote in an email to LNA. “As we’ve said throughout the past year, due to the pandemic’s impact on commercial aviation, we reduced production rates for some of our commercial programs, and our factory employment is directly related to production work statement.”
HOTR: Boeing’s “historic” production advance
By the Leeham News Team
May 18, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s Defense unit last week said it joined the front fuselage of the first Boeing-SAAB T-7A Red Hawk trainer with the aft section “perfectly,” in less than 30 minutes.
It was, Boeing said, an “historical moment.”
It was “a testament to the digital heritage of the U.S. Air Force’s first ‘eSeries’ aircraft and witness to the benefits of model-based engineering and 3D design,” Boeing said. “The digital splice was completed in 95% less time than traditional splices and with substantial quality improvements.”
Why is this a big deal for Boeing Commercial Airplanes?
Because the T-7A, along with the MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueler for the Navy, are Boeing’s pilot programs, if you will, for production of the next Boeing commercial airliner.
This is in part what former Boeing Co. CEOs Jim McNerney and Dennis Muilenburg and current CEO David Calhoun alluded to each time they talked about advanced production.
2021 fleet trends: small jets get bigger, bigger jets get smaller – and the old makes way for the new
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
May 13, 2021, © Leeham News: Aviation data provider Cirium said last week that just under 7,850 commercial aircraft were still in storage, down from 8,684 at the beginning of the year and a peak of 16,522 at the apex of the COVID-19 crisis last April.
Although there was an initial spike in aircraft retirements in March and April 2020, the total number has stayed in line with historical norms to date. However, order books for most types have stagnated or even gone backward since the start of the pandemic.
A few trends are becoming clear: larger single-aisles are thriving, larger twin-aisles are disappearing, and sub-100-seat orders are flatlining. Not surprisingly, older-generation aircraft are disappearing at an accelerated rate.
Summary
- Airlines are upgauging their single-aisle orders in anticipation of lower yields and competitive battles.
- Widebody order books continue to struggle; the bigger the airplane, the worse the demand.
- Regional jet and turboprop order backlogs have stagnated.
NBA Single or Dual Aisle Airline preferences
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Credit: Leeham News
May 10, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing has been studying the launch of a clean-sheet design aircraft for at least a decade. Studies included a single-aisle design but favored a twin-aisle concept before the 737 MAX launch in 2011. As time went on, the twin-aisle concept morphed into a focus on 767-sized dual-aisle with the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA).
The combination of the 737 MAX crisis, Calhoun’s arrival as CEO, and the COVID-19 pandemic led Boeing to shelve plans to launch the NMA in early 2020. However, the American OEM hasn’t stood idle despite sizable layoffs and R&D budget cuts.
LNA reported Boeing’s renewed focus on dual-aisle design and production systems and studied the tradeoffs between a single- and dual-aisle. The NMA has morphed into the concept of a New Boeing Airplane (NBA).
A critical mass of airlines needs to be willing and able to buy a new aircraft to justify a launch. Most observers agree that Boeing needs to launch a new plane to address the weakening market share in the large single-aisle market. However, there isn’t a consensus whether a single- or dual-aisle is the way to go.
LNA analyses in this article the design preferences of the airlines that could be interested in the NBA.
Summary
- Dual-aisle preferences;
- Different opinions about the required range;
- Low-cost carrier preferences;
- Lessor preferences.