Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Analysis: Jefferies presentations show industry hasn’t stabilized post-Covid
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By Bryan Corliss
Sept. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Negative cash flow in the quarters ahead. Ongoing issues with the supply chain. OEMs struggling to meet high airline demand as Tier 1s wrestle with quality issues. New technology wearing out faster than the old systems it replaced.
The No. 1 takeaway from last week’s Jefferies Financial Group Industrials Conference presentations is that the aerospace industry is still a few years away from being in a stable state capable of meeting the demands of customers and shareholders alike.
“We know our customers really do want to make more,” said Howmet CEO John Plant, whose company casts fasteners and engine components for Tier 1s and OEMs. “The question becomes when can we achieve these improved rates?”
Plant went on to say that he believes both Airbus and Boeing will hit their goals for increased widebody production; Airbus at 9/mo on the A350, Boeing at 10/mo for the 787.
The question, he said, is whether the OEMs will hit those rates in 2025 or 2026.
Executives from Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems and Howmet all presented at the conference, and all agreed that there’s reason to be optimistic, given the strong demand from airlines for more planes.
The issue, as Plant put it, is the industry’s ability to meet that demand. “We haven’t seen the real benefits of increased aerospace production.”
- Companies discuss latest 737 quality issue
- Spirit tries to get on track as refinance deadline looms
- Gentile: Supply chain needs new contract terms
- Boeing CFO projects losses for next quarter
- Howmet talks about engine challenges
- Takeaway: Fundamental demand is strong, but…
The range of the Airbus A321XLR, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
September 7, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for the Airbus A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate further inland, both in the US and Europe. When EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection around the tank that gives the extended range, rumors told of a substantial range loss.
Last week we could see that whatever the weight increase, the range loss is not substantial. Now we look at what Airbus could do to restore the range of the A321XLR.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- We could see last week that the range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than rumored.
- When we look at the fixes for any range shortfall, they seem straightforward and doable.
The range of Airbus’ A321XLR
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 31, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for Airbus’ A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate inland both in the US and in Europe. It was, therefore, worrying when EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection in the area where the new center tank is placed, the tank that enables the longer range.
Extra fire protection increases the empty weight, which has an impact on range. How much is lost, and what can Airbus do about it? We model the range shortfall and possible fixes with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The A321XLR is the first trans-Atlantic single-aisle airliner that can fly further than coast to coast between the US and Europe.
- The range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than written about but still troublesome.
The back story to a Chinese lessor sale of 737 MAX orders
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: The order in February by Air India for 190 737 MAXes involves a backstory involving China that until now hasn’t been told. A subsequent sale by a Chinese lessor of all 737 MAX orders to a Middle Eastern lessor further reduces Boeing’s exposure to China.
The Air India was finalized at the June Paris Air Show. When Boeing announced its second quarter financial results the following month, the MAX inventory accumulated during the 21 month grounding of the type was reduced by 55 aircraft. These 55 MAXes were part of the inventory of 140 737s that were built for Chinese airlines and lessors.
Subsequently, the Chinese lessor CALC announced a deal to sell its entire MAX backlog of 54 to the Emirates lessor, DAE. Purchase rights to some 50 more MAXes were also transferred to DAE. This transaction left CALC with no 737s on its order books.
In its 2022 annual report, the most recent CALC financial statements available, the lessor wrote, “As at 31 December 2022, CALC had 226 aircraft on its orderbook, including 131 Airbus, 66 Boeing and 29 COMAC aircraft.”
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 7.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 24, 2023, © Leeham News: We have looked at the promises the VTOL industry made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as the VTOLs come closer to Certification and production.
We started by using Joby and Archer as examples; now, we wrap the series by looking at some other top VTOL OEMs and how their claims have changed as the projects come closer to reality.
Figure 1. The Lilium jet VTOL. Source: Lilium.
Summary:
- Joby Aviation and Archer are not alone in backpedaling on promised performance as certification nears; other OEMs that are investor-financed have the same problem.
- In summary, the VTOLs in the first generation can only fly short-range missions. Longer flights run into energy reserve and cost problems.
KMC’s “low risk” 777 P2F approach struggles to get traction
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By Judson Rollins
August 21, 2023, © Leeham News: Converting Boeing 777-300ER passenger aircraft to freighters has been fraught with challenges. One need only ask longtime P2F provider IAI, whose debut -300ER freighter has flown only once – nearly five months ago. Even Boeing shelved its own P2F plans for lack of a viable business case.
Photo credit: KMC.
Kansas Modification Center (KMC), launched just two years ago, believes it offers a P2F concept with a smoother path to certification. KMC says its competitive edge is a forward cargo door, requiring less structural reinforcement and thus significant weight savings versus an aft door.
KMC believes it will receive FAA type certification by December 2024, with European regulator EASA expected to follow in early 2025.
LNA received a program briefing from Jorge Della Costa, KMC’s CEO, and Eric Kivett, program manager at contractor National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR) WERX. NIAR WERX, a unit of Wichita State University, provides engineering and modification services for KMC’s forthcoming 777-300ERCF.
Summary
- Front loading door saves weight but may add loading challenges.
- Lead engineering partner brings prior conversion experience.
- Local partnerships, short supply chain reduce production risk.
- Certification risk mitigated by human factors planning, not modifying software.
- Lack of sales, capital are open questions.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 6.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 17, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
We used our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to understand the data for the typical missions for the Joby S4 and Archer Midnight VTOLs and how the economics pans out for these missions. We now look at the results and compare them to what’s been projected from the OEMs.
Figure 1. The Joby S4 VTOL. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- We found the VTOL OEM’s economics for the typical 10-minute shuttle flights optimistic.
- When we go back and look at investor deck projections, the cost comparison to helicopter costs were totally off the mark. When we correct this the VTOL is more expensive to operate then an equivalent helicopter.
United selects GEnx for order for 100 787s
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2023, © Leeham News: United Airlines quietly selected GE engines for its order in December last year for 100 Boeing 787-9s, according to Boeing’s website. The order isn’t finalized and neither GE nor United would comment.
There had been speculation that UAL might order Rolls-Royce engines as a mitigation for cancelling 45 Airbus A350-900s, which is powered exclusively by RR. United repeatedly deferred delivery of the A350s, which were ordered by previous managements. United inherited a large order for 787s when it merged with Continental Airlines and placed repeat orders for the 787 after the merger. The A350s essentially are duplicative to the 787s.
United placed large orders for the Airbus A321neo at a time when Boeing at first dithered whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft. UAL added to the neo order during the time when Boeing was unable to pursue any new airplane program due to the extended grounding of the MAX and during the COVID pandemic.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 10, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. We go through the different cost factors for a VTOL, add them up, and compare them with the industries’ projections.
Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
· The VTOL OEMs state their economics for 10-minute shuttle flights while claiming the VTOL can also fly flights four times longer.
· Yes, the VTOLs can indeed fly these longer flights, but then the economics fall apart.
Boeing reveals sub-type orders for MAX, 777X for the first time
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing yesterday revealed the orders for sub-types for the 737 MAX and 777X, the first time it has done so publicly.
The Seattle Times first reported the MAX detail.
The MAX data is largely similar to LNA’s estimates over the years, in which we analyzed the backlog, including Unidentified customers, to percentages. When the MAX 10 was program was launched, customers who ordered the MAX 8 or MAX 9 switched some of these to the MAX 10. Others have done so since then.
MAX orders remain concentrated around the MAX 8 and the high-capacity MAX 8 200, also known as the MAX 8200. Seventy-one percent of the MAX orders in backlog are for these two aircraft types. In contrast, 62% of the Airbus A320neo family backlog is for the largest model, the A321neo. Boeing’s direct competitor to the A321neo, the MAX 10, represents 19% of the MAX backlog.
The MAX 7 and MAX 10 have yet to be certified. Only the A321XLR remains to be certified of all the A320neo family variants.