Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Growing Opposition to ALPA’s Attack on Regionals
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Kathryn B. Creedy
Analysis
May 15, 2023, © Leeham News: Using the same tired arguments, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) on May 5 urged the Department of Transportation to reject SkyWest’s year-old proposal to create a Part 135 public charter under Part 380 of the Department’s regulations to serve Essential Air Service (EAS) markets.
Credit: Republic Airways
ALPA, in a letter co-signed by nine other unions, claimed SkyWest Charter is a backhanded attempt to bypass the 1,500-hour pilot experience rule. The airline says its proposal is to continue serving most of its EAS points under the same regulations governing other EAS carriers. Further, it attacked the public charter rule objecting to JSX operations, a catalyst for engaging the business aviation against the union.
ALPA may be skating on thin ice, not realizing the 1,500-hour rule is increasingly irrelevant given statements on Capitol Hill favoring pilot training reform and the popularity of the EAS program among legislators.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 12P. Airframe efficiency improvement
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 12, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 12. Airframe efficiency improvement. It discusses in detail the next-generation airframe improvements we can expect. We start with detailing the size of airframe inefficiency for today’s airframes, then look at the areas we can improve.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption and maintenance scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we examine today is the cost of using the airport and airways infrastructure. Airlines pay for landing plus parking at airports and for using their passenger facilities. The airlines also pay for using the Air Traffic Control (ATC) infrastructure when flying the routes.
Each airport and national airway system have their own fee structures. We check how these scale with aircraft size.
Figure 1. The TECNAM P2021 piston prop airliner is also offered in an electric version called P-Volt. Source: TECNAM.
Summary:
- Airway fees scale differently per transported passenger to the airport fees.
- Overall, airport and airway fees are not proportional to carried passengers on a route.
GTF’s troubled history hurting future orders
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 8, 2023, © Leeham News: India’s GoFirst Airlines filed for bankruptcy last week. The carrier pointed to around 29 of its 50 Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan-powered Airbus A320neos being grounded as the reason.
The aircraft have been grounded for months. Despite negotiations with PW and a favorable arbitration ruling, GoFirst says PW failed to provide replacement engines. As a result, GoFirst paid about $196m in lease rates for the grounded aircraft, without being able to fly them for revenue.
Lufthansa Group last week complained that a third of its Swiss Airbus A220 fleet, also powered by the GTF, are likewise grounded with technical issues. As LNA previously reported, Air Baltic, Egyptair and Air Senegal also have A220s grounded. Iraqi Airlines has some A220s that are grounded. And now there’s news that Embraer E195-E2s at KLM’s regional airline are also grounded due to GTF issues.
India’s Indigo Airlines also has a large number of A320neos grounded with GTF problems. About 11% of the nearly 3,000 A320neos in service are grounded or fly one a week, an Aviation Week analysis revealed.
PW’s reputation was already badly damaged before the GoFirst bankruptcy. However, an LNA analysis shows that forward orders for engines on the A320neo already were suffering.
Summary
- CFM’s LEAP has a consistently larger market share, boosted by exclusivity on Boeing 737 MAX.
- Initially PW won more orders for A321neo; CFM has overtaken in the order backlog.
- Including A220 (exclusive GTF power) and MAX, plus neo split, CFM’s in-service market share is 66% to 34%.
- But going forward, CFM has 60% of the backlog across all types to PW’s 19%–with 22% of the A320neo family orders undecided on engines.
Related Articles
Embraer reports first-quarter losses but says production will increase
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By Bryan Corliss
May 5, 2023 © Leeham News – Embraer on Thursday reported a loss in what typically is a slow quarter for the Brazilian jet-maker.
However, executives talked up plans for production ramp-ups and ongoing sales campaigns as they pointed toward growth in future quarters.
“We are on track and we are going to get there,” CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said.
- Deliveries up year-over-year
- Supply chain ‘still challenging’
- 11 active campaigns involving 200 jets
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 4, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy and fuel consumption scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we examine today is the maintenance cost for keeping an airliner fit for purpose and safe.
We use the Leeham aircraft performance and cost model to get the data for the maintenance costs for airliners going from nine to 200 seats.
Figure 1. The Cessna Sky Courier is a new 19-seat small airliner with conventional propulsion. Source: Textron Aviation.
Summary:
- The maintenance costs of an airliner scale differently from the energy and fuel consumption we studied last week.
- We discuss the scaling metrics for the airframe maintenance costs and how these differ from what drives engine maintenance costs.
Howmet: Supplier still cautious about rate increases at Airbus, Boeing
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By Bryan Corliss
March 3, 2023 © Leeham News – Executives at Howmet Aerospace – who got burned in 2022 when expected production rate increases at aircraft OEMs didn’t materialize – said Tuesday they’re still taking a cautious approach to ramping up their operations
However, the company – which casts fasteners and engine components for aerospace and other industries – does see signs of growth ahead.
“We remain cautious about commercial aircraft build in the second half (of this year), until we see clear evidence of consistent production rate increases,” Howmet CEO and Executive Chairman John Plant said.
Production rates at Airbus and Boeing “will be controlled by the efficiency of both the aircraft assembly lines and the supplier parts, which leads to the final production being set by the weakest link in all of the supply chain,” he added.
Howmet reported strong growth for the quarter, with revenue up 29% year-over-year, driven by sales of engine components, aerostructures and fasteners.
The company reported profits of $148 million for the quarter, which was up 13% from the same quarter last year.
- Howmet laid off workers at end of 2022
- Company hiring to support rate increases
- Howmet projects growth this year
Open Skies in Africa: a jump start to post-covid recovery?
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By Judson Rollins
May 1, 2023, © Leeham News: Could Africa’s first real “open skies” implementation boost its aviation recovery? So far, the continent’s rebound from covid has been anemic as food and energy crises, surging inflation, and debt tightening have battered consumers and producers alike.
Source: Wikipedia.
A December report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed Africa’s post-covid traffic recovery on a trajectory like Europe or Latin America, with 2019 passenger volumes not expected to return until 2025. Industry economists believe the average African airline profit margin this year will be -1.7%. The US dollar’s continued strength hasn’t helped, given its impact on most non-labor airline costs, and looms as an even greater threat to profitability in coming years.
Summary
- African aircraft order books are relatively thin
- Flag carrier troubles, limited affordability continue to dampen growth
- Single African Air Transport Market: a new chapter?
The Small Airliner problem, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2023, © Leeham News: We started a series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats) last week in the light of a continuing decline of regional airlines in the US and Europe.
To understand whether fundamentals are stacked against small airliners, we look at operational cost factors and how these scale with aircraft size. Then we add the revenue and yield and discuss the conditions for viable business plans for different size aircraft.
This week we use the Leeham airliner performance and cost model to compare the airframe energy and fuel consumptions for airliners spanning nine to 200 seats.
Figure 1. Eviation Alice is a battery-based nine-seat electric aircraft. Source: Eviation.
Summary:
- On an airframe energy level, a smaller airliner consumes more energy per transported passenger than a larger one.
- If we change the metric to propulsion energy consumption, the trend is augmented as small propulsion solutions are less efficient than larger ones.