Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Machinists Union members at Spirit to vote on four-year contract this week
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By Bryan Corliss
June 19, 2023, © Leeham News – Roughly 6,000 Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita will vote Wednesday on a proposed four-year contract that would significantly increase pay for hourly workers.
The bargaining committee for IAM Local 839 is recommending that its members accept the deal.
“This is not an easy decision, but it is one that we believe is a good one,” the committee wrote in a letter to members on Friday.
It noted, however, that “the decision to accept or reject this offer is up to the membership,” and added that however the vote goes, the leadership “stands 100%” behind what the members decide.
At least some of those members are vocally urging the deal be rejected.
“How on earth did you think this is an offer we should accept?” one worker wrote on Local 839’s Facebook page. “You have betrayed us.”
The current contract expires just after midnight Friday, June 23.
- Offer on its face is generous
- Comes after 13 years without a new contract
- Industry-wide ramifications should a strike occur
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 17P. Airframe with lower induced drag
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June 16, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 17. Airframe with lower induced drag. It discusses in detail the simulations we have done on a Truss Braced Wing, using our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to compare it to today’s wings and alternative future concepts.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 8. A battery-based airliner
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 15, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series on fundamental costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), we have started analyzing if the size related cost factors also apply to green propulsion airliners and if the trends stay the same or change.
We use the Heart Aerospace ES-30 project as an example of a battery-based airliner with range extenders. Last week we developed the fundamental aero data for the aircraft with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model; now, we fly representative sectors and look at the energy and fuel consumptions compared to a similar-sized turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- There is a difference between what the theory says about aircraft range on batteries and how you have to fly in practice to keep battery costs down.
- The ES-30 has dual range-extending Turbogenerators. They get going more often and at a shorter range than advertised.
As Airbus ponders the A220-500, Boeing shrugs
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By Scott Hamilton
June 12, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun says he’s not worried about the prospect of Airbus launching a stretched model of the A220 family.
Airbus has said it’s a matter of “when, not if” it launches the A220-500. This would be a direct competitor to the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737-8 MAX. Sales of the A320N are declining in favor of its larger sibling, the A321neo. The MAX 8 is Boeing’s bread-and-butter member of the MAX family.
Calhoun, during Boeing’s pre-Paris Air Show media briefing last month, said the -500 doesn’t give him heartburn. But he didn’t go into detail.
Darren Hulst. Credit: Darren Hulst.
Darren Hulst, VP of Commercial Marketing for Boeing, did the next day. Hypothetically, the value of the 737 family is probably best illustrated when you talk about the choice that an airline must make with a 320 base family or an A220 base, he said. Assuming Airbus goes forward—which it said is not going to happen at the Air Show beginning next week—Hulst said the market will decide its success of failure.
Summary
- Commonality vs capacity.
- No growth opportunity after A220-500.
- Limited market for the A220-500; the market may have passed the -500 by.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 7. How affected are Green airliners?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 8, 2023, © Leeham News: We have analyzed the costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), and how these vary with different size airliners. The aim was to search for fundamental trends and if these disadvantaged a smaller airliner versus a larger one.
We found that a smaller airliner (we analyzed from 190 seats down to 9 seats) has structural cost disadvantages versus a larger model. The analysis was made with conventional gas turbine-propelled planes so as not to complicate the work. Now we introduce airliner types with green propulsion concepts and see if the trends stay the same or change.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- We analyze the fundamental characteristics of a hybrid 30-seat airliner and compare it to the conventional airliners we characterized in the series.
- The negative cost trend for smaller airliners worsens for a battery or hybrid airliner.
Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing continues to face a plethora of paperwork to certify the 737 MAX 7 this year. Officials hope to certify the largest member of the family next year, but won’t commit to this goal.
Boeing 777-9. Credit: Leeham News.
And there is no reason, at this time, to believe the 777-9 will require an entirely new type certificate despite major changes to the airplane.
So says Mike Fleming, senior vice president-Development Programs and Customer Support. Fleming made his remarks at Boeing’s media briefing on May 31 in advance of the Paris Air Show, which beings in two weeks.
Embraer gears for growth
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 1, 2023, © Leeham News: We attended a briefing on Embraer’s strategy for the years ahead last week. The company has regrouped after the failed Joint Venture with Boeing in 2020 and the tough COVID years.
The focus has been on streamlining operations after the carve-out of the Commercial Aviation division was reversed. The reintegration was followed by efficiency projects in all divisions to lower costs, free capital, and pay down debt.
Only from a strengthened economic base can Embraer go for growth in the years ahead.
Embraer E2 jet ordered by Scoot. Source: Embraer.
Summary:
- Embraer has turned corners in Finance, Executive jets, and Defense with the KC-390.
- Now, the E-Jets shall follow, with sales of E2s picking up over the last six months.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag. It discusses in detail the Blended Wing Body (BWB) type of airframe that shall reduce the airframe wetted area and thus air friction drag.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 25, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered the cost factors that make up the Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs).
We now compile the Cash Operating Cost for the aircraft on a typical sector and discuss the result.
Figure 1. The D238eco 40-seat airliner. Source: Deutsche Aircraft.
Summary:
- The Cash Operating Costs do not reduce in proportion to passenger numbers for a smaller airliner.
- As a consequence, a small airliner needs a higher load factor or yield to be viable.