Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 9P. Parallel Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Parallel Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a Parallel Hybrid aircraft for regional operations.
Our design brief is to make turboprop upgrade packages for De Havilland DH8-200,-300, and-400 aircraft. By using a Parallel Hybrid we could “target a 30% reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions, compared to a modern regional turboprop airliner” according to Pratt & Whitney Canada. Time to check if we can reach these levels.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.
The large twin-aisle and freighter replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 28th, 2022, © Leeham News: In recent weeks, we compared the 787-10 Heavy Gross Weight (HGW) performance against the A350-900. The 787-10 HGW will impact sales campaigns against the A350-900 and those of larger aircraft, the A350-1000 and 777X, and large freighters.
LNA now analyses the potential replacement market for very large aircraft (seating 350 or more passengers in standard configurations) and large factory-built freighters.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle campaign opportunities;
- Passenger and cargo fleet commonality considerations;
- Large factory freighter operators.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 8P. Serial Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm.
February 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 8. Serial Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a hybrid aircraft for short-haul commuter operations.
Our design brief is to make an aircraft that uses a minimum of carbon-based fuel by combining battery-based energy with energy from a generator driven by a gas turbine. Such a combination is called a Serial Hybrid.
Figure 1. Different electric aircraft architectures compared with the classical Turbofan/Turboprop. Source: Leeham Co.
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A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The CEO of Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA), Stan Deal, said at the Singapore Air show the company worked on increased gross weight versions of both the 787-9 and -10.
Target is to get the 787-10 to the range of the aircraft it shall replace, the 777-200ER and -300ER. It means more than 7,000nm of range against the 6,400nm of today.
How many tonnes of increased Gross weight does this mean, and what would be the performance compared with the Airbus A350-900? We use our airliner performance model to find out.
Summary
- The 787-10 can grow to a range of over 7,000nm with a modest increase of its gross weight.
- It will be competitive with the A350-900 but for the longest routes in such a variant.
For next new airplane, Pratt appears to trail CFM for next new engine
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As Boeing ponders whether to launch a new airplane program and industry consensus seems to be that this must happen in 2023 or 2024, Pratt & Whitney seems to face a dilemma.
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
Convinced that the Geared Turbo Fan technology is the path to future engines, nevertheless, public statements indicate that by 2035, the GTF in the conventional form will fall short of the Open Fan being developed jointly by GE Aviation and Safran. GE and Safran are 50-50 partners in CFM International, which will sell the engine.
Rick Deurloo, the chief commercial officer for PW, told LNA last October that by 2031 (at the time, 10 years in the future), the GTF will have a 10% improvement in fuel burn and emissions compared with today’s GTF. PW will have a 1% improvement by 2024.
GE’s Travis Harper, who is the program manager for the Open Fan “RISE” engine under development, told LNA earlier this month that the RISE will reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 20% and be ready for entry into service by 2035.
If the goals outlined by Deurloo and Harper are taken at face value and achieved, this means the GTF will be up to 10% short of CFM’s engine ready for EIS four years later.
This was the question LNA put to other representatives of GE and PW at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference Feb. 10.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the operating economics of the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F. Both freighters are new launches over the last 6 months with planned service entry 2025 (A350F) and 2027 (777-8F).
We flew the freighters with the help of our Aircraft Performance Model over a typical freight trunk route from Shanghai to Anchorage at a full load and compared their economics with the present freighter in this class, the Boeing 777F. Readers demanded we fly them with a part load and on shorter routes, so here we go.
Summary
- When we vary the payload and the route length, the economic differences between the freighters stay roughly the same.
Impact of 787-10 HGW on the large twin-aisle aircraft market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 14th, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) CEO Stan Deal announced that the company was working on a high gross weight (HGW) variant of the 787-10 Dreamliner.
United Airlines 787-10. Credit: United Airlines.
LNA later revealed that the maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) increase would also be available on the 787-9. The goal of the increased MTOW is to make the 787-10 more competitive against the A350-900, which currently has a significantly higher nominal range: 6,430 nm vs. 8,100 nm. The 787-10 HGW range should match that of the 777-200ER.
The 787-10 HGW targets replacing larger, older-generation, twin-aisle aircraft still in service, notably the 777-200ER and 777-300ER. Boeing’s primary goal is to prevent customers from ordering the Airbus A350-900 due to a lack of payload-range for the 787-10.
Boeing paused developing the 777-8 around 2.5 years ago, and it is not clear whether the variant will ever enter service. Therefore, without the 787-10 HGW, there would be a sizable seat gap between the 787-9 (290) and 777-9 (414) in the American OEM’s long-range twin-aisle offering. Both A350 variants are in that seat gap.
The arrival on the market of the 787-10 HGW has the potential to affect sales opportunities for the A350 and the 777X. LNA analyses the potential replacement market for long-range aircraft seating 300 or more passengers in this context.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle replacement market;
- 787-10 HGW potential customers;
- The airlines unlikely to order the 787-10 HGW.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 6P. Energy consumption, the deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
February 11, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 6. Energy consumption. It uses the Aircraft Performance Model from our Consultancy practice to generate energy consumed data when we fly a typical airline mission for the first aircraft we analyze, the battery-based Eviation Alice and Heart Aerospace ES-19.
These represent what to expect for airliners that have chosen this energy storage principle.
Heart Aerospace ES-19. Source: Heart Aerospace.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing introduced the freighter version of the 777X last week, and we made a first article about how it stacks up against Airbus’ new freighter, the A350F. The Boeing freighter will be the market’s largest freighter when it enters the market in 2027, two years after the A350F.
We now use our performance model to fly the new freighters against the present Boeing 777 freighter, the 777F, to look at their operating economics.
Summary
- Both new freighters handsomely beat the 777F on operating economics.
- The race is much tighter between the 777-8F and A350F.