Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 37. First flight test prototype
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 3, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different design phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, we now discuss prototype manufacturing and testing, Figure 1.
Today, we look at the role of the first flying prototype.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
NASA, Boeing Say SAF Creates Fewer Greenhouse Contrails
By Dan Catchpole
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Nov. 2, 2023 © Leeham News: High over Montana, Andy “Jeeves” Barry slipped the McDonnell Douglas DC-8 to the right and out of the Boeing 737-10’s wake to “get some fresh air.”
NASA’s uses a highly-modified McDonnell Douglas DC-8 as a test platform for its Armstrong Flight Research Center. (Photo by Dan Catchpole)
After a few minutes, the NASA research pilot edged the DC-8 behind the MAX, trailing about a mile and a half or so. It was another in a slew of test flights in October that he’d spent riding the 737’s bumper in NASA’s venerable DC-8 research aircraft.
The former U.S. Navy aviator eased the workhorse into a slot of calmer air in the 737’s wake, he said. “…[I]n that sweet spot of that secondary (wake) and just above the primary wake is where we lived the whole time and got the best science that they really loved the entire time we were out there.”
NASA and Boeing collaborated on the flights to test the effect of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on the formation of contrails, short for condensation trails, which climatologists contribute to global warming. The 737-10 alternated between burning jet fuel and 100% SAF, while the DC-8 sampled the air in its wake.
Summary
- Researchers say data collected will help predict when and how contrails form and SAF’s effects on contrails.
- How much contrails contribute to global warming is not completely clear.
- Boeing is working with supply chain to develop airplanes that can fly 100% SAF and traditional jet fuel by 2030.
Safran revenues take flight, but supply chain woes persist
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By Gordon Smith
Oct 31, 2023, (c) Leeham News: Robust demand in the civil aftermarket sector has helped propel Safran Group’s Q3 2023 revenues upwards. The French firm shared its latest sales results on October 27 and confirmed that it was on track to achieve its year-end targets – but the positive performance hasn’t been universal.
A choppy combination of headwinds and tailwinds is currently buffeting the business, whose vast range of interests includes engine development, aftermarket, aircraft interiors, and other MRO-related sectors.
Overall, revenues were up 20.1% year-on-year at €5.82bn, tracking estimates of €5.79bn. As a result, the company reiterated its FY23 adjusted revenue guidance of €23bn, which was raised at the end of July.
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MTU posts upbeat earnings report despite €1bn GTF hit
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By Gordon Smith
Oct. 30, 2023, (c) Leeham News: MTU Aero Engines has confirmed its guidance for 2023 and posted higher adjusted sales and earnings in the third quarter. The numbers are the first reported by the German company since it revealed last month that it would take a €1bn knock from the Geared Turbofan (GTF) inspection program.
The exceptional charges dragged the engine manufacturer into the red with an EBIT loss of €410m for the first nine months of 2023. The comparative earnings figure for last year was €331m, representing a sharp 224% fall.
In September, the firm said well-documented powder metal issues with the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-JM GTF would knock revenue and earnings for the year by around €1bn. During an earnings call on September 27 attended by Leeham News, MTU CFO Peter Kameritsch said he expected this figure to be slightly above the €1bn mark. Without adjustments, revenue was €3.7bn for the first nine months of 2023. Adjusted operating profit was €597m, up a third from the €448m posted a year earlier.
Commenting on the latest numbers, CEO Lars Wagner said: “MTU posted organic growth in all business segments. However, exceptional charges for the Geared Turbofan inspection program affected our figures.”
Adjusted net profit reached €138m, up from €113m a year earlier. Adjusted EBIT – which is the company’s chosen profitability metric – grew to €192m from €158m, representing a margin of 12.7%. Kameritsch acknowledged that “favorable exchange rate effects” provided a welcome boost to the numbers, alongside the company’s “positive revenue mix and a good cost base”.
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Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 36. Prototype manufacturing and Testing
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 27, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different design phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design (Figure 1), we now discuss prototype manufacturing and testing, where we today go deeper into structural testing.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Further developments of the A321, Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 26, 2023, © Leeham News: We do an article series about what can be the next development for Airbus’ most popular aircraft, the A321neo. We looked at a minimal makeover in Part 3; now, we make a larger change.
We use our Airliner Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to examine what a new wing and revised engines can bring regarding larger passenger capacity, range, and lower seat-mile costs.
Summary:
- To increase the capacity significantly of the A321, a new wing is needed.
- We design a new wing combined with uprated engines and look at the result.
Boeing Cuts 737 Delivery Estimate in Blood Red 3Q Earnings Report
By Dan Catchpole
October 25, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing slashed its 737 MAX delivery forecast for the year to between 375 and 400 in its third quarter earnings report on Wednesday. The company attributed the cut to rework and inspections to fix manufacturing problems in aft pressure bulkhead sections produced by beleaguered supplier Spirit AeroSystems. It maintained its 787 delivery forecast of 70 to 80 airplanes by year’s end.
Boeing recorded a loss of $1.6bn in the third quarter, its worst quarterly performance this year. The company continues to struggle with supply chain and production problems. Boeing’s defense division spilled the most red ink on the ledger book due to problems on its Air Force One (VC-25B) program and losses on a satellite contract. BDS recorded a $924mn loss. Boeing executives acknowledged that the company’s recovery is taking longer than they had expected, but they remained upbeat about stabilizing the aerospace giant in the next couple years.
Summary:
- Boeing reports worst quarterly earnings since 3Q in 2022, when it recorded $3.3bn in losses.
- Boeing Defense, Space and Security recorded a $428mn loss on its Air Force One (VC-25B) program and a $315 million loss on a satellite contract.
- The company continues to struggle with supply chain problems and slower-than-expected rework on the 737 program.
- Boeing CEO says losses are a sign of the company’s commitment to a transparent culture and uncovering, rather than ignoring, problems.
Lockheed bows out, Airbus plows ahead in USAF tanker procurement; Boeing favored
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 24, 2023, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) threw in the towel on Oct. 23, announcing it will not submit information to the US Air Force for the KC-Y aerial refueling tanker procurement.
Lockheed Martin drops out of the KC-Y US Air Force tanker procurement for an aerial refueling tanker. Airbus, its partner, will proceed alone. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
But its partner, Airbus, quickly said it will respond to the USAF’s Request for Information (RFI).
“Airbus remains committed to providing the U.S. Air Force and our warfighters with the most modern and capable tanker on the market and will formally respond to the United States Air Force KC-135 recapitalization RFI. The A330 U.S.-MRTT is a reliable choice for the U.S. Air Force: one that will deliver affordability, proven performance, and unmatched capabilities.”
MRO demand, pricing power near record levels: great for providers, painful for operators
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By Judson Rollins
October 24, 2023, © Leeham News: In aviation’s topsy-turvy post-Covid recovery, one group of companies faces a near-perfect storm of positive developments: maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) service providers and their suppliers.
Source: Maxim Commercial Photography via Aviation Week.
Last week, MRO providers and airline representatives met in Amsterdam for Aviation Week’s MRO Europe conference. There was an almost palpable sense of “it is what it is” resignation from airlines about costs and delays and from providers regarding labor availability and supply chain challenges.
However, the current balance of power clearly favors providers, who face almost unprecedented demand. The aforementioned constraints serve to limit MRO capacity further, giving providers almost unprecedented pricing power.
The biggest obstacle facing both providers and airlines is a growing gap between market demand and production rates of key components, especially for engines. This shortage is exacerbated by limited aftermarket supply, which in turn is driven by limited feedstock for part-outs.
Summary
- Long backlogs, high prices are a growing concern for airlines.
- Lessors are also facing strong tailwinds from MRO, engine market dynamics.
- Production and pricing strategies are being called into question.
Q3 Could Be Boeing’s Reddest Earnings Report This Year
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By Dan Catchpole
The U.S. Air Force accepted the first of five T-7A Red Hawk test aircraft from Boeing on Sep. 14th. (Image courtesy of USAF and Boeing Co.)
October 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to post its biggest quarterly loss of the year when it reports its third quarter earnings on Wednesday. The company’s commercial and defense divisions continue to struggle with rework, slow work, supply chain snafus, and other challenges for both its commercial and defense and space divisions. Those divisions’ losses likely will be offset somewhat by Boeing Global Services, which continues to be a bright spot on the company’s otherwise blood-red ledger book.
Analysts aren’t expecting any big surprises, just more of the same financial dark clouds that have been camped out over Boeing in recent years. They expect Boeing to announce a loss due to well-known challenges, especially with its 737 and 787 programs, as well as ongoing struggles within Boeing Defense, Space and Security. In recent research notes, investment analysts have forecast BDS posting a loss between $475m and $500m for the quarter.
Across Boeing’s divisions, Wall Street expects the company to book more than $1bn in losses. Projections vary by as much as $1bn. At the low end, TD Cowen expects a loss of just under $900m. At the other end, Bernstein projects about $1.85bn in losses. In either case, that would be the biggest loss since 2022’s third quarter, when Boeing posted a $3.3bn loss.
Summary:
- BCA continues to struggle with the 737 and 787 programs. It just announced a price revision deal on those programs with airframe supplier Spirit AeroSystems.
- BDS is expected to post more charges due to ongoing struggles with new and mature programs.