787-10 to come later than suggested

The Boeing 787-10 will come much later than most suggestions, according to this article by Bloomberg.It was widely thought that Boeing Commercial would go to the Board by year-end to seek an Authority to Offer (ATO) the plane by year-end of next year, with an EIS perhaps around 2016.

Boeing officials bragged that this model would have superior economics and would be an “A330-300 killer.” It would also replace the 777-200ER.

Now, according to Bloomberg, no move to the Board is apparently imminent and the prospect of the EIS moves to the end of this decade.

What does this mean for the 777X? Does this mean the X timeline moves up? Boeing has been saying it’s not in a hurry due to what it believes to be uncertainty over the Airbus A350-1000.

Update: Boeing contacted us to say that nothing has changed in its timeline as outlined in the news article.

Odds and Ends: More on 100-149 seat jet market; aircraft op cost comparisons; Super Guppy

100-149 Seat Market: AirInsight has more on its study of the 100-149 Seat Market analysis and why it will be turbulent in the next five years.

Cost Comparisons: Aspire Aviation has a long article on the Cathay Pacific Airways earnings but to us the most interesting parts are the operating cost comparisons between various CX fleet types. It’s all buried in the article.

Super-Guppy: The Puget Sound Business Journal has a video from inside the NASA Boeing Super Guppy. Based on the old Boeing Stratocruiser, the Super Guppy is a specialty airplane originally designed to transport Atlas rockets. Later, Airbus used them to transport fuselage sections around Europe to final assembly in Toulouse. This is probably the last operating variant of any B-377/C-97/KC-97. It’s the last of the Super Guppies. With the retirement of the NASA Shuttle fleet, we wonder what will become of this airplane.

Odds and Ends: Preparing market for 3-5 mo delay on CSeries; Air Canada fleet plans

Bombardier: On its earnings call. the company is preparing the market for a 3-5 month delay on the first flight of the CSeries. We’ve been estimating 3-6 months.

Air Canada: Here’s an interesting item. Air Canada is pondering major fleet changes that might see the removal of the Embraer E-190 as too big yet it is considering adding the CRJ-900, which is nominally just a little smaller.

AirAsia X: This LCC for long-haul is adding six Airbus A330s to its fleet, to bring the total to 26 when all aircraft on order are delivered. AirAsiaX considers the airplane ideal for flights of six to eight hours.

100-149 seat market isn’t ‘Bermuda Triangle’ for the right airplanes

A new study released today by AirInsight concludes the oft-maligned 100-149 seat market is viable, and not a ‘Bermuda Triangle,’ if the right airplane is developed to compete within it.

We’re a co-author of the study, Market Analysis of the 100-149 Seat Segment.

Some aerospace consultants, analysts and observers–as well as Boeing’s Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing–term the segment a Bermuda Triangle because of airplane “failures” in the market. But the fact is that except for Embraer’s E-Jet, the poorly-conceived British Aerospace/Avro Jets and Bombardier’s pending CSeries, there hasn’t been a clean-sheet design since the 1960s. All other aircraft have been derivatives of older designs and offerings of weak and dying manufacturers.

We need to add the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100 to the clean-sheet design list, but this falls into the weak OEM category.

Today there are six aircraft types and 15 sub-types from five OEMs. (There were seven and 16 until Tuesday, when Boeing finally dropped the 737-600.)

AirInsight has an analysis of the future of the A319/A319neo and 737-700/737-7 Max here.

Here is a run-down.

Read more

Boeing and SPEEA: the debate heats up

Boeing’s engineers’ union, SPEEA, has been pretty vocal in its campaign to members with internal statements, its website and on Twitter–the latter certainly read by media.

Boeing now has launched a public website of its own.

Odds and Ends: Seeking an injunction against A320 sharklet sales; more

A320 Sharklets: Remember the lawsuits between Aviation Partners and Airbus over winglets and sharklets? AP wants an injunction against A320 sharklet sales. That sure got Airbus’ attention.

American and US Airways: Bloomberg has a long piece on US Airways’ effort to acquire American Airlines.

Emirates Airlines: The fast-growing carrier is about to become the world’s third largest.

Airbus and US Spending: Airbus wants to double its US supply-chain sourcing to $24bn.

Boeing BWB: This article has some pictures of Boeing’s latest version of the Blended Wing Body research model.

Boeing appears to finally drop 737-600

Boeing has updated its price list and for the first time, the price for the 737-600 is missing. Boeing hasn’t sold a 737-600 since 2005. In June, Boeing told us the model was still being offered. Not any more, apparently. We’ve sent an inquiry to Boeing for an official statement.

Update, 12:30pm: Boeing gave us this statement at 0900 but we’ve been away from the computer until now:

  • Should customers request to order a Next-Generation 737-600, BCA Sales will work with the customer to meet their requirements.
  • The Next-Generation 737-600 model will continue to be supported by the 737 Program.

We note that this statement doesn’t really confirm or deny the discontinuation of the 737-600 offering.

Update, 3:45pm: Linda Lee, the 737 program spokesperson, got back to us with this slightly expanded response from that offered by a non-program spokesman earlier today. Lee said:

Should customers request to order a Next-Generation 737-600, Commercial Airplanes Sales Teams will work with the customer to meet their requirements.
As you probably have checked on our Orders & Deliveries website, we don’t have any orders for the Next-Generation 737-600s in the order stream. Our families of Next-Generation 737-700/-800/-900ER (Extended Range) are meeting the requirements of our customers worldwide.
A fair interpretation is that Boeing would steer the customer to the other 737-Series airplanes.
Old $mm New $mm Diff$mm % Diff
B737-600 59.4 0 -59.4 -100%
B737-7 MAX 77.7 82 4.3 6%
B737-700 70.9 74.8 3.9 6%
B737-8 MAX 95.2 100.5 5.3 6%
B737-800 84.4 89.1 4.7 6%
B737-9 MAX 101.7 107.3 5.6 6%
B737-900ER 89.6 94.6 5.0 6%
B747-8 332.9 351.4 18.5 6%
B747-8F 333.5 352 18.5 6%
B767-200ER 151.5 160.2 8.7 6%
B767-300ER 173.1 182.8 9.7 6%
B767-300ERF 175.4 185.4 10.0 6%
B767-400ER 190.2 200.8 10.6 6%
B777-200ER 244.7 258.8 14.1 6%
B777-200F 280.1 295.7 15.6 6%
B777-200LR 275.8 291.2 15.4 6%
B777-300ER 298.3 315 16.7 6%
B787-8 193.5 206.8 13.3 7%
B787-9 227.8 243.6 15.8 7%

Odds and Ends: RR vs Air France; Kingfisher Airlines; Phuket

RR vs Air France: We’ve written about this before–Air France wants to maintain the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines on the Airbus A350s it wants to buy, but RR wants to maintain the engines. The dispute has been holding up confirming the order for a year. The Wall Street Journal has this update.

Kingfisher Airlines: The carrier continues its long spiral down. Lessors want airplanes back. The government is holding onto the airplanes in lieu of the airlines’ airport payments which are in default. ATR long ago canceled the orders it had with Kingfisher. Airbus is the other big loser.

Phuket: Emirates Airlines adds Phuket, Thailand, to its route network. We’ve always loved this name. But we’ve always wondered: is it pronounced with a soft U or a hard U? Fokker is a close runner-up.

Update, 1:30 PM PDT: One of the first images from Mars, courtesy of Mr. Sulu (George Takei on Facebook):

Boeing nabs Airbus customer SilkAir

Boeing won an important, symbolic victory over Airbus in the neo v MAX competition by nabbing SilkAir, heretofore an exclusive Airbus A320 family customer.

SilkAir will order up to 68 Boeing 737-800s and -8 MAXes.

After Airbus grabbed three 737 customers for its neo family, Boeing vowed to aggressively go after Airbus operators. SilkAir is the first win in this effort.