Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
Readers skeptical of detailed Boeing plans to fix the 787 battery issues
Readers aren’t convinced that Boeing has turned the corner on the planned 787 battery fixes detailed last week in two press conferences.
The results come as some surprise to us. Despite some messaging we thought fell short, we felt overall Boeing outlined a pretty strong set of fixes that were done probably in concert with the FAA Seattle office. We published polling Monday; here are the results as of this morning. These are actually worse than our polling a month ago, when readers were evenly split whether they would resume flying the 787 when it returns to service.
Clearly, Boeing and the airlines have a job to do with public perception to restore confidence in the airplane.
These polls admittedly are not scientific.
Does Boeing have good solutions to the 787 battery issues?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| No, Boeing still hasn’t gone far enough | 55% | ||
| Yes, the press conferences outlined good solutions | 28% | ||
| I don’t know | 17% |
Having heard or read the details, will you fly the 787 when it returns to service?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, I now have confidence in the 787 and the solution | 34% | ||
| No, I still want to wait 1-2 years for proof | 51% | ||
| Maybe–I’m not sure | 15% |
When will the 787 return to revenue service?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks, like Boeing thinks | 7% | ||
| May | 23% | ||
| June | 25% | ||
| July | 16% | ||
| August-December 2013 | 29% |
KING 5 News (Seattle, NBC) reported that the 787 test flight planned for yesterday did not happen, but had no explanation. An aerospace engineer we asked said, “I would gather that since this is a “one shot to get it right” flight, BA is being rather overly cautious. So I imagine it doesn’t take much for them to cancel a flight and wait for optimal conditions.”
Timing seems critical, however, if Boeing is to meet its goal of returning the 787 to service soon.
Reuters had this yesterday:
Boeing last week unveiled a new battery system and predicted the 787 would fly again within weeks rather than months.
Asked whether Boeing was presenting a best-case scenario, Osamu Shinobe, the architect of All Nippon Airways’ strategy to put the fuel-efficient 787 at the centre of the airline’s fleet planning, said, “That’s what we understand it to be.”
“The problem is we don’t know how long the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will take to finish its checks (on the new battery system),” he said in an interview.
For Boeing to meet its target, Shinobe explained the plane maker needs to complete certification testing this week, and gain quick FAA approval followed by an airworthiness directive soon after. It would then have to transport all the parts and equipment to 787s parked around the world to begin installing the new batteries. Boeing has said that could take a week per plane.
A side note: Weather conditions this week in the Seattle area are forecast to be pretty abysmal, with sometimes heavy rains and high winds. Whether this will be a factor for the test flight is unknown.
Bloomberg has this today:
Norwegian Air is among airlines affected by the idling of the global Dreamliner fleet on Jan. 16 in the wake of incidents with lithium-ion batteries. While Boeing has proposed a fix, it hasn’t given new delivery dates for planes the Oslo-based company should get from April, Kjos said in an interview.
.
“There’ll be a delay that hits us on the first two aircraft,” Kjos said. Norwegian Air has leased two Airbus SAS A340s to provide cover, one for two months, the other for three, during which time the 787s should arrive, he said.
This suggests NAS doesn’t expect its 787s until June or July at the earliest.
Boeing lobbies Congress to avoid 787 hearings
Boeing has lobbied Congress to avoid holding hearings on the Boeing 787, according to this Associated Press report.
One might argue about the appropriateness of Boeing lobbying on this issue, but we agree with the outcome: it’s premature to have Congressional hearings, if at all.
Congress has an unfortunate habit of meddling in affairs in a way that seems more aimed at publicity than actually doing anything productive. The investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board isn’t over–it’s not even held its own hearings yet–and the FAA’s own navel-gazing hasn’t concluded (has it even begun?). Until these are done, Congress would be ill-advised to hold any hearings.
Whether it is advisable to hold hearings after these investigations are complete remains to be seen. But for now, no hearings is the right thing.
Odds and Ends: Post-SPEEA Vote; LionAir and RyanAir; ANA skeptical of Boeing timeline
Post-SPEEA Vote: The ratification of the contract offer by Boeing by the SPEEA technical workers is welcome news. It gives Boeing and its stakeholders certainty at a time when the 787 issues remain outstanding and the developmental programs of the 777X, the 787-9 and 10, the 737 MAX and the KC-46A are at important stages. Although SPEEA took a loss over the pension issue, the union was able to extend the previous contract provisions over economic issues for another four years. Call this a draw for the two sides.
LionAir and RyanAir: On Monday Airbus announced an order for 234 A320ceo/neo family members from LionAir, previously an all-Boeing customer. Today Boeing announced an order for 175 737-800s from RyanAir, an exclusive Boeing customer. There were no MAXes in the order, however. RyanAir CEO Michael O’Leary has not been a fan of the re-engined 737.
ANA skeptical of 787 timeline: Reuters has an interview with All Nippon Airways in which it expresses some skepticism about the Boeing timeline of returning the 787 to service within weeks. ANA calls this a “best case” scenario.
On the other hand, LOT, which took the 787 out of its schedule through September, now says the airplanes could be back in service by summer.
Vote in the Polls: All Nippon Airlines has begun its effort to rebuild the 787 brand flying in its colors. Boeing began its effort last week. Is the view of the 787 turning? If you haven’t already done so, please be sure to vote in these polls (scroll down after clicking the link).
Paine Field Pleads its Case: Targeted for closure in Sequester, with a decision to be announced this week, the director of Everett Paine Field pleaded his case to remain open in this letter: FAA Tower Closure – Paine Field (1).
Well wishes: Daniel Tsang, founder of Aspire Aviation, has been hospitalized in Sydney, Australia, with an unknown ailment first thought to be measles but it’s not. Well wishes to him.
SPEEA Accepts Boeing contract
It’s over–for four years. From SPEEA:
SEATTLE – Technical workers at The Boeing Company have approved a new four-year contract, putting an end to negotiations that have lasted nearly one year.
Votes tallied Monday (March 18) by the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), IFPTE Local 2001 show Technical workers voted 4,244 to accept and 654 to reject. Union negotiators told members a second rejection would likely result in a strike as Boeing was refusing to move on all issues.
Union members were voting on a contract offer that was identical to the offer the 7,191 Technical workers narrowly rejected and the larger Professional Unit of engineers narrowly accepted on Feb. 19. While engineers and technical workers bargain at the same time, the contracts are separate and independent agreements.
The new contract extends the terms of the previous contract, including 5% annual salary increase pools, no increases to employees for medical coverage and an increase to the retirement benefit. By the end of the new agreement, SPEEA represented technical workers, and also the engineers, will have received eight straight years of 5% salary increase pools, with guaranteed minimum wage increases each year of the contract.
The major area of contention during negotiations was the defined benefit retirement pension plan. While overwhelming member support and workplace action helped union negotiators continually get Boeing to improve most elements of the contract offer, the company steadfastly refused to move away from eliminating the pension for new technical workers hired after March 1, 2013. Like most new employees at Boeing, technical workers and engineers will now receive the company’s “enhanced 401(k)” and not the defined benefit pension.
SPEEA and Boeing started negotiations in April 2012. Technical workers have been without a contract since Nov. 25.
While the majority of covered employees are in the Puget Sound region of Washington state, these contracts include employees in Oregon, Utah and California.
From Boeing’s Ray Conner:
Techs approve contract offer; SPEEA negotiations conclude
Tonight, technical workers represented by SPEEA approved Boeing’s contract offer, bringing to a close negotiations that formally began almost a year ago. In February, SPEEA-represented engineers approved the same offer which is now in place until October 2016.
We’re pleased to have settled a contract that rewards SPEEA-represented employees for their contributions to the company’s success while maintaining a superior package of retirement and health care benefits. The contract also establishes a new retirement savings plan for future new hires. The plan is market-leading among our peer companies in the aerospace industry and promotes our competitiveness going forward.
The votes by technical workers and engineers in recent weeks will allow us to come together and focus on the challenges and opportunities we face this year. We’re moving forward with an excellent team in place.
Ray
Analyzing the two Boeing 787 press conferences–and new polls
See new polling below the jump.
Two back-to-back press conferences last week are clearly the beginning of Boeing’s effort to rebuild confidence in the beleaguered 787 and confidence in the 787 and Boeing brands, which have taken big hits following the grounding of the worldwide fleet January 16.
The airplanes have been on the ground for two months and two days. Boeing says it hopes the grounding order will be lifted by the FAA within weeks. Clearly, Boeing will be ready if the tests currently underway validate the series of fixes it’s worked out. We’re not as sanguine about the timing, if only because the FAA has never been known for its speed, because Ray LaHood, Secretary of the Department of Transportation of which the FAA is a part, painted himself and the FAA into a corner with his silly “1,000%” remark, and because of uncertainty of how the Japanese and European regulatory authorities will respond to the fixes.
But we will acknowledge that Boeing has worked with the FAA’s Seattle office to find solutions, so review in Washington (DC) is not as if officials there are starting “blind.” But we can’t help but think that given the spotlight on the FAA’s certification process from the National Transportation Safety Board and the FAA’s own declaration that it will review its procedures in certifying the airplane battery in the first place that a go-slow pace will prevail.
As someone whose business and experience also include communications, we found Boeing’s two press conferences to be well-done beginning efforts on rebuilding the brand. The press conferences were lengthy and there were tough questions at each.
The problem, if you want to call it that, is that the journalists are not engineers and while they asked some tough questions, some of the information is probably over their heads. But skepticism was evident.
Andy Pasztor of the Wall Street Journal challenged Boeing on its view there wasn’t a thermal runaway as others said, including the National Transportation Safety Board. Boeing’s representatives took the view that a thermal runaway had to threaten the airplane, and what occurred did not, so it wasn’t a thermal runaway. The NTSB and others believe a thermal runaway is a thermal runaway and that’s that–along the lines if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, then it’s a duck.
Odds and Ends: Second SPEEA vote results tomorrow night; Big LionAir-Airbus order finally ready
SPEEA vote tomorrow night: Update: Tomorrow is now today; the SPEEA vote results will be counted tonight (Monday).
The revote by SPEEA technical workers will be counted Monday night. Technical workers rejected the best and final offer from Boeing last month and authorized a strike. The professional engineers accepted the contract but authorized a vote, a technical maneuver that became moot with contract acceptance.
The issue leading to rejection was Boeing’s desire to shift from a defined pension plan to a defined contribution for new employees.
Boeing refused to improve its offer. Without the backing of the professionals, we think the technical workers will vote to approve the contract this time.
Vote results will be well into the evening.
Big Airbus-LionAir Order: At long last, the huge order we first referred to September 24 last year appears ready to be announced Monday, Paris time. Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and French papers are reporting the deal will be announced tomorrow. It’s for A320s (neos, maybe some ceos) and breaks Boeing’s monopoly with LionAir and the 737/737MAX. This is a huge win for Airbus.
More Boeing Q&A on the 787 battery issue
A press release detailing 787 battery solutions outlined in Boeing’s Thursday’s Tokyo press conference is here.
Press coverage from last night’s briefing:
Boeing says flights could resume in weeks, not months; Japan’s regulators not so sure.
Boeing says 787 safest airplane, could fly in weeks.
Fix proceeds without knowing root cause.
Boeing in strong defense of Dreamliners.
Comprehensive battery solution.
Boeing today held a special question-and-answer session follow-up to the Tokyo press conference. Ron Hinderberger, Vice President, 787-8 Engineering, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, is the representative. A running synopsis:
Opening remarks:
The FAA recently approved certification plan, part of a comprehensive process that is an important milestone. The FAA has approved the changes and we will have a series of ground and flight tests and a series of analyses to lead to certifying the airplane.
[Recaps the changes described at the Tokyo press conference.]
Q&A
Odds and Ends: AF 447 resurfaces; Racing toward 2,000; A400M; beating back anti-droners
Air France 447: More data has surfaces on Air France 447, the Airbus A330 that plunged into the Atlantic on a flight from Brazil to France several years ago. In a cooperative post-investigation that included Airbus and Boeing, efforts to replicate the crash in a simulator failed.
It separately emerged that the pilot of the flight had one hour of sleep and the co-pilots also didn’t have the requisite sleep.
Racing Toward 2,000: At ISTAT, Airbus COO Customers John Leahy said he expected to gain another 200 orders this month for the A320 family, reaching 2,000 orders for the neo in the process. Lufthansa and Turkish have since announced orders.
A400M certified: The troubled Airbus A400M has been certified.
Beating back anti-droners: Boeing and supporters killed legislation in Washington State that would have outlawed drones. Boeing’s subsidiary Insitu is headquartered in Washington and considered leaving to Oregon, across the Columbia River. A coalition is also working to have Moses Lake (WA) selected as a drone testing site under an FAA program.
Boeing’s webcast from Japan on 787 battery fix
Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Mike Fleming, VP and Chief Engineer for EIS of the 787 and Mike Sinnett, vice president and chief project engineer for the Boeing 787, provided an update on the battery fix during a visit to Japan today (or tomorrow, Japan time….)
Here is a running brief of comments:
RC Ray Conner
MF Mike Fleming
MS Mike Sinnett
RC: US FAA has a comprehensive process we must follow to get airplanes into the air for testing and for re-EIS.
We’re here this week to discuss our solution and to take feedback from Japanese authorities, The solution is the result of thousands of hours of tests within Boeing and with other agencies.
We acknowledge the work of the Japanese regulators and GSD Yuasa and have been a tremendous partner throughout this process. I speak for the 170,000 employees of Boeing when we say that the safety of our product is the #1 priority of the company, ahead of everything else we do.
We have three layers of solutions and we are confident these are the right ones.
MS: (Going through the PDF slides linked above.) We understand that we do not have a business if we don’t have safety. Safety is the number one thing we think of in designing an airplane.
With 100 years of experience, we apply these lessons to each new airplane. We stand behind the integrity of each Boeing airplane.
The battery is only a backup in flight. It operates on the ground. The 787 is an electric jet, using two generators in combination producing one megawatt of electrical power. The APU also has two generators associated with it.
If in the unlikely event all generators and batteries fail, the Ram Air Turbine deploys. We don’t need the main battery in flight or the APU battery in flight for safety. The batteries operate the brakes on the ground and other ground-based functions.
The Li-Ion batteries technology was already mature technology for many applications, including aerospace (not commercial aerospace).
[Note: Bombardier reached a different conclusion, telling us that in 2009 when it had to make a decision on batteries that it was not satisfied with the Li-Ion technology, and therefore selected nickel-cadium.)
Li-Ion technology earned its way on to the 787.
We work very hard to design a system that will not fail Then we assume it will fail and provide redundancies or backups. We apply this design philosophy to every system on the airplane.