The Farnborough Air Show for the trade is over. Here are today’s final orders.
Airbus: Avolon signs MOU for 15 A320neos. Middle East Airlines 5+5 A320s/A321s. Russia’s UTAir 20 A321s. Synergy Aerospace firms up order for nine Airbus A330 Family aircraft. Ends show with 115 orders, MOUs, commitments.
Boeing: United’s announcement for the 737-9 MAX (100) and 737-900ER (50) originated in Chicago and was broadcast to the FAS. With this order, Boeing now has +1,200 orders and commitments for the MAX from 18 customers. Firm orders for 737 MAX now hit 649.
Bombardier: Chorus Aviation of Canada exercises options for six Q400s. AirAsia’s CEO Tony Fernandez confirms he’s talking about 100, 160-seat CS300s.
Posted on July 12, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Few little activity today.
Orders today
Airbus: CIT Aerospace, 10 A330 (five previously undisclosed); China Aircraft Leasing, 28 A320ceo, 8 A321ceo–MOU.
Boeing: Avolon (lessors), commitment for 20 737 MAX 8/9 and 10 737-800s. The MAXes are part of the previously announced 1,000 Orders and Commitments, so this portion is not new, but rather a public disclosure.
ATR: Nordic Aviation, one ATR 42-600; Air Lease Corp., two ATR 72-600s; LAO Airlines, two ATR 72-600s, TransAsia, six ATR 76-600s.
Mitsubishi: SkyWest Airlines, LOI for 100 MRJs
CFM: Juneyao Airlines (China), CFM56 for five A321s; Aviation Capital Group, LEAP-1A for 18 A320neo family.
Pratt & Whitney: Finalize previously announced engine selection for GTF for 40 A320neo.
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this story in which he has the following observation:
Wyse revealed that Boeing, through structural efficiencies, has also beefed up the allowed maximum take-off weights for the three MAX variants.
Each is 5,000 to 7,000 lbs heavier than the maximum take-off weights of the current 737s.
That means each 737 MAX model, even though heavier than the corresponding current model of the 737NG, can either carry a heavier payload or carry more fuel and so fly farther.
This is good. But we’re hearing from airlines that runway performance may be worse than the 737NG. The airplane is heavier but the wing is the same and the engine thrust is still somewhat of a mystery. CFM International, maker of the LEAP-1B that will power the MAX, lists thrust on its website of 20,000-28,000 lbs without identifying the sub-types and thrust to which the engines will be applied.
These thrust ratings are similar to those now on the NG, rather than being increased to compensate for the increased weight.
One airline tells us that runway performance for the -8 MAX and -9 MAX is longer than the -800 and -900. (The airline is not considering the -7 MAX and doesn’t have the -700.) This, the airline tells us, makes the airplanes problematic at some airports it serves.
This illustrates the dilemma Boeing and CFM have with the physically-constrained 737. CFM could build any engine it wants that would get the job done. It has, after all, two LEAP engines in development for the COMAC C919 and the Airbus A320neo. But the 737 presents special challenges and CFM is constrained unless Boeing lifts the entire airplane with new main gear. But this would mean a new wing box and associated structural changes, adding significantly to the cost. And Boeing won’t to this.
There’s still a lot about MAX we don’t know. And many customers are also waiting for the information.
Posted on July 10, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
The Farnborough Air Show isn’t just about orders, though these get all the sex and headlines.
While we weren’t at the show, we had a telephone interview with a company called Constellium, previously known as Alcan. Constellium spoke at the February conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, with which we are involved. We were particularly interested in talking with Constellium because it is a major supplier of Aluminum-Lithium, an alternative material to standard aluminum and a competing material to composites.
Constellium’s Al-Li combines other processes, including a design for recycling, and is named AirWare. Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier are among their key customers, and it is Constellium that is providing the materials for the CSeries. It’s also a supplier on the Airbus A350 (internal components, not the fuselage).
As Airbus and Boeing looked at the A320neo and 737 MAX, and as Boeing is looking at the 777X, we asked them about the prospect of using Al-Li. This is lighter than standard aluminum, more durable, less susceptible to corrosion and enabled 12 years between major maintenance overhauls compared with the 6-8 years now.
But Al-Li is more difficult to work with than standard aluminum. Boeing’s Mike Bair told us in an interview that Boeing considered Al-Li back in the 1990s when designing the 777 but it was too difficult and costly to manufacture. Since then, he praised the producers for strides. There are mixed reports what material will be used for the 777X fuselage: standard metal or Al-Li. The Seattle Times reported the airplane will have Al-Li. We’ve been told it won’t. But with the airplane still months and perhaps a year from launch, there is plenty of time to decide.
Airbus, in an interview at the Paris Air Show last year, said it was evaluating Al-Li for the A320neo. The A320ceo is heavier than the competing Boeing 737 and the re-engine adds about 4,000 lbs. Using Al-Li would mitigate some of this weight. We haven’t heard if Airbus might go ahead with Al-Li, but we’re leaning toward concluding that it won’t.
Boeing told us it will not switch to Al-Li for the MAX because the manufacturing process is just enough different that it would add complexity and cost to the current tooling and procedures.
Al-Li vs composites is a competition that will likely be fierce when it comes time for Airbus and Boeing to design the next clean-sheet airplanes, presumed to be the New Small Airplane, or replacement for the current 737/A320 class. (Boeing may have a new clean-sheet for the 757 class; it has a New Airplane Study underway for this, but the market may be too narrow when one considers the 737-9 MAX and A321neo will do 95% of what a 757 can do.)
Composites, selected for the 787 and A350 XWB fuselages and wings, offer advantages over standard metal fuselages that have been well documented and need not be repeated here. But Airbus and Boeing question the efficiency and benefits of down-scaling composites to 737/A320 category airplanes. Boeing apparently became convinced: Jim Albaugh, former CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said the New Small Airplane would have been composite, but the ability to produce it at a rate of 60 per month remained a challenge. Boeing went with the MAX instead.
Vistagy, a composite manufacturer near Boston, told us nearly two years ago, that the down-scaling challenges were met and that production rates were the issue. Autoclaves are very costly and so is the manufacturing process. There is actually less industrial waste than traditional aluminum manufacturing, but the materials are generally more hazardous—though there have been strides on this score.
This is the background that intrigued us when we had the opportunity to speak with Constellium’s Simon Laddychuk, VP of Manufacturing Global Aerospace and Director of Technology. Read more
Posted on July 10, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut
737MAX, 777X, A320NEO, Boeing, Bombardier, Constellium, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, MRJ, MS-21
Update, 8:30 PDT: If anyone thought Airbus’ John Leahy doesn’t have some orders up his sleeve, get a gander at this from Reuters:
Airbus sales chief John Leahy was in typically combative and upbeat form: “The party’s over?. Why, it’s only the second day of the show, for heavens’ sake,” he said of suggestions orders were drying up. “We’ll have some important announcements.
Original Post:
Another reason we’re glad we didn’t waste our time and money going this year: a dearth of activity.
Comparative* maximum take off weights and range limits for the Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX:
MTOW (lb) | Range (nmi) | Two-class seating | |
737-700 | 154,400 | 3,400 | 126 |
737 MAX 7 | 159,400 | 3,800 | 126 |
737-800 | 174,200 | 3,080 | 162 |
737 MAX 8 | 181,200 | 3,620 | 162 |
737-900ER | 187,700 | 3,055 | 180 |
737 MAX 9 | 194,700 | 3,595 | 180 |
*Next-Generation 737 values are calculated with Blended Winglets. Typical mission rules, two-class seating applies.
Posted on July 10, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
McNerney rejects “price war.” A quote from a Financial Times story (see below).
He rejected suggestions that a price war had broken out between Airbus and Boeing over the A320 Neo and 737 Max but confirmed the US manufacturer would woo some airline customers of its European rival.
Courtesy of Aspire Aviation, here is a summary of orders through Day 1:
Airbus
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Arkia Israel Airlines |
4 |
A321neo |
Agreement |
Boeing
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
60 |
737 MAX 8 |
Reconfirmation rights for 25 more |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
15 |
737 MAX 9 |
|
Pratt & Whitney
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
IndiGo |
300 |
PW1100G-JM |
|
9th July |
CIT |
60 |
PW1100G-JM |
|
9th July |
Cebu Pacific |
60 |
PW1100G-JM |
For 30 firm A321neos |
9th July |
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) |
100 |
PW1100G-JM |
MoU |
CFM
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
150 |
CFM Leap-1B |
|
Embraer
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Hebei Airlines |
5 |
E-190s |
Booked in Q2 backlog |
Reuters put together a handy-dandy thing to calculate airplane prices easily. These are list prices, of course.
Some stories of note:
United to announce big MAX order July 12
AirInsight is posting daily news and videos.
The Financial Times of London has a piece with Boeing’s Jim McNerney. (Free but limited registration required.) Here’s a relevant quote.
Boeing announced the 737 Max in August last year and Mr McNerney said that “in retrospect” the US manufacturer should have made its decision to proceed with a revamped version of its narrow-body workhorse, rather than a brand new aircraft, “six to nine months” earlier.
Posted on July 9, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
We’re all used to Airbus and Boeing engaging in hand-to-hand combat. The war has now spilled over to CFM and Pratt & Whitney and the LEAP engine vs the GTF.
There have always been some sharp words. But according to these two stories from Guy Norris at Aviation Week, the tone has now gotten even sharper.
CFM claims big advantage over GTF.
We’re puzzled by CFM’s claim (in the first story) that the LEAP will have a 2%-2.5% advantage in fuel burn over the GTF. Airbus gives a 1.5% advantage to GTF because of the larger fan (John Leahy, Credit Suisse conference Nov. 30, 2011). CFM claims a 15% SFC gain over today’s engines; PW claims 16% SFC gains (pre-installation) for its GTF and flying test results bear this out, PW says.
CFM has a larger market share of aircraft over 100 seats, because of its exclusivity on the 737 MAX. CFM also has a larger share of the A320neo family, the only airplane where there is head-to-head competition, bolstered by the policy of sister company, lessor GECAS, of buying only GE engines; and a financial rescue of Frontier Airlines, which has a CFM-powered A320 fleet and which ordered the A319neo/320neo at the Paris Air Show last year with LEAP engines.
It’s noteworthy in the first article that the LEAP-1B for the 737 MAX shares little commonality with the LEAP-1A and LEAP-1C. This reflects the challenges of fitting a LEAP under the wings of the physically-constrained 737, which basically required another core design.
Separately, here is a story about the materials and process used for the LEAP.
Posted on July 8, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Some more stories out of Farnborough, the day before the show officially starts:
Reuters has two stories, one we’ve been tracking for some time (Cathay) and one that is totally new (and totally surprising) (AirAsia).
Cathay could end A350-1000 drought.
AirAsia looks at 160 seat version of CS300. We knew BBD has a 160-seat version, high density. We hadn’t heard of AirAsia’s interest. Predictably, Airbus’ John Leahy dismissed the idea. If he tried to kill the CSeries before, this will really get his dander up. AirAsia is one of his largest customers. Maybe we can see a dance-off between Leahy and Bombardier’s chief executive Pierre Beaudoin.
Bombardier Talks About CSeries Timeline. Videocast over at AirInsight.
Bombardier lands new CSeries customer. Add moreCS100s, CS300s to the mix.
Boeing’s Ray Conner, new CEO of Commercial Airplanes, speaks with The Seattle Times.
Posted on July 8, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Tweets from Saturday’s CFM press conference:
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines Part commonality between LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B very little.
CFM: 737 Max Leap-1B engine core has 10-stage 22:1 pressure ratio in the HPC. 1st 5 stages are blisks. Plans 5-stage LPT. #FIA12
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines doesn’t see a commercial use of open rotor technology in the thrust range where CFM sits now until about 2030.
Another shot from @CFM_engines: Each Leap-powered A320neo will have $3-$4M net present value advantage on 15yr term against A320neo w/PW1200
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12, #FIA12 @CFM_engines LEAP-1A/1C design freeze took place on 28 June 2012, drawings now being released. -1B freeze will be mid 2013.
Interesting: @CFM_engines predicts Leap-1A will beat PW1200 on MX by 50h/yr on A320neo. Also 4 fewer “fill-ups”. #FARN12 #FIA12
Looks like @CFM_engines expects CFM56 production to phase out completely by 2019, meaning no more A320neos & 737NGs. #FIA12 #FARN12
Here is a full story from The Wall Street Journal. Author Jon Ostrower also posted the following image on his Facebook account:
Posted on July 7, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
The mid-size twin-aisle battle
While a plethora of new entrants are nipping at the heels of Airbus and Boeing in the single-aisle market, the battle in the twin-aisle segment is strictly between the two behemoths.
The two OEMs differ on the size of the market by a wide margin. Airbus, in its 2011 20-year Global Market Outlook, the most recent available, forecasts a need for 6,525 twin-aisle airplanes: 4,518 “small” twin aisles and 1,907 “large” twin-aisles. Boeing, which does not publicly distinguish this segment, forecast a need for 7,950 twin-aisles. This is in the 200-400 seat segment (Airbus uses 210-400 for its forecast).
Given their methodology differences in the total market forecast, both nonetheless come to the same market share—24%–of the mid-size, twin-aisle segment.
The line-up is: