Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
Odds and Ends: 737 faces challenges; 737 MAX and China; American Air
737 Challenges: The Puget Sound Business Journal has this long piece about the challenges facing the 737 from Airbus and others.
737 MAX and China: Meantime, China is, at long last, looking at the MAX for its airlines.
American Airlines: A merger with US Airways makes the most sense, says Aspire Aviation (we agree as long as US management is in control)
Odds and Ends: Judge smacks down American; ailing Hong Kong Airlines
We were traveling Wednesday so we’re a little behind on this:
American Airlines: The judge overseeing American’s bankruptcy denied a request to void labor contracts, particularly the pilot contract. This is a huge blow to management–and would seem a boost for the US Airways merger effort.
Hong Kong Airlines: This financially ailing carrier, under growth restrictions by the authorities, may cancel its order for the Airbus A380. The airline was supposed to firm up an order for the Boeing 747-8I that was announced as an “Unidentified” commitment during the Paris Air Show last year, but it never did.
787-10 to come later than suggested
The Boeing 787-10 will come much later than most suggestions, according to this article by Bloomberg.It was widely thought that Boeing Commercial would go to the Board by year-end to seek an Authority to Offer (ATO) the plane by year-end of next year, with an EIS perhaps around 2016.
Boeing officials bragged that this model would have superior economics and would be an “A330-300 killer.” It would also replace the 777-200ER.
Now, according to Bloomberg, no move to the Board is apparently imminent and the prospect of the EIS moves to the end of this decade.
What does this mean for the 777X? Does this mean the X timeline moves up? Boeing has been saying it’s not in a hurry due to what it believes to be uncertainty over the Airbus A350-1000.
Update: Boeing contacted us to say that nothing has changed in its timeline as outlined in the news article.
Odds and Ends: More on 100-149 seat jet market; aircraft op cost comparisons; Super Guppy
100-149 Seat Market: AirInsight has more on its study of the 100-149 Seat Market analysis and why it will be turbulent in the next five years.
Cost Comparisons: Aspire Aviation has a long article on the Cathay Pacific Airways earnings but to us the most interesting parts are the operating cost comparisons between various CX fleet types. It’s all buried in the article.
Super-Guppy: The Puget Sound Business Journal has a video from inside the NASA Boeing Super Guppy. 
Based on the old Boeing Stratocruiser, the Super Guppy is a specialty airplane originally designed to transport Atlas rockets. Later, Airbus used them to transport fuselage sections around Europe to final assembly in Toulouse. This is probably the last operating variant of any B-377/C-97/KC-97. It’s the last of the Super Guppies. With the retirement of the NASA Shuttle fleet, we wonder what will become of this airplane.
Odds and Ends: Seeking an injunction against A320 sharklet sales; more
A320 Sharklets: Remember the lawsuits between Aviation Partners and Airbus over winglets and sharklets? AP wants an injunction against A320 sharklet sales. That sure got Airbus’ attention.
American and US Airways: Bloomberg has a long piece on US Airways’ effort to acquire American Airlines.
Emirates Airlines: The fast-growing carrier is about to become the world’s third largest.
Airbus and US Spending: Airbus wants to double its US supply-chain sourcing to $24bn.
Boeing BWB: This article has some pictures of Boeing’s latest version of the Blended Wing Body research model.
Odds and Ends: RR vs Air France; Kingfisher Airlines; Phuket
RR vs Air France: We’ve written about this before–Air France wants to maintain the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines on the Airbus A350s it wants to buy, but RR wants to maintain the engines. The dispute has been holding up confirming the order for a year. The Wall Street Journal has this update.
Kingfisher Airlines: The carrier continues its long spiral down. Lessors want airplanes back. The government is holding onto the airplanes in lieu of the airlines’ airport payments which are in default. ATR long ago canceled the orders it had with Kingfisher. Airbus is the other big loser.
Phuket: Emirates Airlines adds Phuket, Thailand, to its route network. We’ve always loved this name. But we’ve always wondered: is it pronounced with a soft U or a hard U? Fokker is a close runner-up.
Update, 1:30 PM PDT: One of the first images from Mars, courtesy of Mr. Sulu (George Takei on Facebook):
Boeing nabs Airbus customer SilkAir
Boeing won an important, symbolic victory over Airbus in the neo v MAX competition by nabbing SilkAir, heretofore an exclusive Airbus A320 family customer.
SilkAir will order up to 68 Boeing 737-800s and -8 MAXes.
After Airbus grabbed three 737 customers for its neo family, Boeing vowed to aggressively go after Airbus operators. SilkAir is the first win in this effort.
Allegiant Air selects A319
Allegiant Air, an Ultra-Low Cost Carrier in the US, announced that it will lease Airbus A319s from GECAS and purchase more from The Philippines’ Cebu Air.
Update: Here is the Allegiant presentation. This confirms Allegiant is getting the four-exit, 156-passenger airplane.
Notably, Allegiant had this to say:
“The A319 is a new aircraft type for Allegiant, but we otherwise see this as a continuation of our existing business model,” said Andrew C. Levy, Allegiant President. “A319 asset values have significantly declined and now mirror the environment we saw when we first began buying MD-80s.”
Airbus issued this statement:
“A new operator is always great news, but it’s a grand endorsement of the Airbus product line when that operator is a growing low-cost carrier in one of the strongest markets in the world,” said Barry Eccleston, Airbus Americas President and Chief Executive Officer. “Allegiant is hyper conscious of both cost and comfort, and the fact they are turning to the A320 Family proves we have the aircraft the airline knows it needs to fly them successfully into the future.”
Our take:
Allegiant has been operating the MD-80 with 150 seats and is increasing capacity to 160 (or 162). The A319 with wall-to-wall seating is around 150 and somewhat more if a second overwing exit were installed (as with easyJet).
Values of A319s have, as Allegiant noted, been falling in the last few years (so have those for Boeing 737-700s, though not quite as much). Lease rates, according to one lessor, hovers in the $100,000-$120,000 range for older A319s and 737-700s and even less for the oldest ones.