Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Engine OEMs pushing ahead for next airplane, even as Boeing pauses
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: David Calhoun may not be anywhere near ready to launch the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), but the engine makers are actively researching and developing engines to hang of whatever that NBA will be.
Calhoun, the CEO of Boeing, repeatedly said the NBA will be more about reducing production costs through advanced design and production methods. For some time, Calhoun said the next engines available on the assumed timeline—to about 2030—will have only 10% better economics than today’s engines.
And 10% isn’t enough for the airlines or the commensurate reduction in emissions.
CFM/GE Aviation/Safran are developing an “open fan” engine that will reduce fuel burn and emissions by 20%. A target date for entry into service is in the 2030 decade. The open fan builds on R&D of open rotors that have been underway since the era of the Boeing 727 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80.
Pratt & Whitney sees an evolution of its Geared Turbofan engine. The GTF was under development for 20 years before an operating engine made it onto the Bombardier C Series (now the Airbus 220), the Airbus A320, and United Aircraft MC-21. The GTF also was selected for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, which launched the GTF program. However, Mitsubishi pulled the plug on the MRJ/SpaceJet program last year. PW remains committed to the GTF for future engines.
Rolls-Royce is developing the Ultra Fan and Advanced engines. GE’s Open Fan and RR’s engines adopt geared turbofan technology pioneered by PW but add new technology.
LNA takes a look at the new engines for the NBA or any other competing airplane in a series of articles.
Boeing and Airbus freighter battle
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing yesterday gave its clearest indication yet that it’s moving closer to launching the 777X Freighter.
In a message to employees in conjunction with its third quarter earnings release Oct. 27, CEO David Calhoun said, “We’re progressing in development across several key franchise defense programs, and on the 737-7, 737-10 and 777X development and certification efforts. We’re also evaluating the timing of a freighter version of the 777X and are beginning to lay the foundation for our next commercial airplane development program.” News reports earlier suggest Boeing may launch the XF at the Dubai Air Show.
On the earnings call, Calhoun was slightly more expansive. “Given the continued robust freighter demand and the compelling economics of the 777X, we are currently evaluating the timing of launching a freighter version of our 777X airplane.”
A Lufhansa Boeing 777F freighter.
Single-aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic on thin routes?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The headline seems like a no-brainer. On long thin routes over the Atlantic, we have learned a Boeing 757, or its replacement, the Airbus A321LR, is the right aircraft (as long as it’s within its range).
This was the situation in a pre-pandemic market where freight yields were half of today. The single-aisle has lower operating costs than the widebodies, and if the passenger stream and range fits, it was the transport to have on the route.
With the high cargo prices, does this change? We check for several Atlantic routes.
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo challenge the mantra; a single aisle is preferred for trans-Atlantic service as long as the passenger number and range fits.
- Going forward it will be all about the cargo prices and the number of passengers to transport.
HOTR: Lessors warn Airbus
By the Leeham News team
Oct. 26, 2021, © Leeham News: Two mega-lessors warned Airbus against dramatically upping production rates of the A320 family, London’s Financial Times reported Oc
t. 23.
“[B]old plans to speed up production are unjustified given still subdued demand from airlines after the coronavirus pandemic,” The Times wrote. Airbus notified suppliers earlier this year to study going to a production rate of 70 aircraft per month by 2025. Rates might go even higher, to 75/mo, Airbus said.
“The chief executives of Avolon and AerCap, wrote to Guillaume Faury, Airbus chief executive, in recent weeks to express their concerns that the aircraft market would not support the most aggressive increases in output rates, according to four people familiar with the situation. A surge in supply of new aircraft, potentially flooding the market, could push down the value of the lessors’ existing fleets. They make their money by renting to airlines,” the paper wrote.
Airbus sees encouraging signs of wide-body demand recovery
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus sees some “encouraging” signs wide-body demand is recovering from the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Christian Scherer. Source: Airbus.
Passenger demand is nearing-pre-pandemic levels in key areas of the world where single-aisle aircraft are used. Long-haul international demand remains suppressed, however. Some don’t forecast a return to normal for up to two more years. Others forecast a recovery on key routes next year.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, is optimistic.
“I would say that on the wide-body market, you see encouraging signs,” he said during a press gaggle at the IATA AGM Oct. 3-5 in Boston. “Maybe that has to do with the fact that the ecosystem at large is realizing that the best thing they can do in the short- and medium-term, towards that whole global objective of sustainable air transportation is to equip themselves with the most fuel-efficient and therefore eco-friendly airplanes.
“I think that against that backdrop and the opening of more international corridors sees a regained interest on the wide-body side as well. Now it’s lagging the single arch really and there is no scoop here that rates in the long-range airplanes are going to change imminently, but the general sentiment is positive on the wide-bodies as well and that’s really good.”
Single or twin Aisle for cargo rich routes?
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: LNA started the cargo-themed series by comparing factory and converted freighter aircraft performance. We followed with the comparison of cargo capacity for different passenger airliners with the same low number of passengers.
The latter showed that freight revenues alone could justify operating a larger variant despite lower passenger load factors. We now continue the cargo-themed series from a different angle.
Several countries, notably the United Kingdom, United States, and Singapore, re-opened quarantine-free travel for non-residents who received a COVID-19 vaccine. After more than 18 months of depressed passenger traffic, airlines are hopeful long-haul traffic will finally restart in earnest.
It will probably take a few more years until long-haul traffic fully recovers to pre-pandemic levels globally. With that in mind, airlines need to decide how to rebuild their long-haul networks gradually.
Launched a few months before the COVID-19 pandemic, the A321(X)LR seems an ideal aircraft to test the market before committing to larger aircraft. LNA has extensively written about the pre-COVID-19 long-haul market fragmentation with the smaller twin-aisle (A350 and 787) and higher-range single-aisle (737MAX and A321LR) aircraft.
However, is a long-range single-aisle aircraft always the best choice to rebuild a network when cargo prices are high? LNA will answer that question in the next part of the series.
Summary
- A pre-COVID19 fragmentation momentum;
- Pandemic turns long-haul business upside down;
- The appeal of long-range single-aisle aircraft assumes normal cargo prices;
- What a single-aisle airplane can’t provide.
Air freight demand explosion: a long-term trend?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
October 18, 2021, © Leeham News: Much ink has been spilled over the surge in demand that has washed over every corner of the cargo world: air, sea, road, and rail.
Amazon Air’s first parcels being unloaded at Amazon.com’s new Cincinnati (US) sort hub. Source: Amazon.com.
Before the COVID-19 crisis, air transport was reserved primarily for items with high value and/or time sensitivity, such as laptop computers or express documents. And growing competition in the cargo market meant that average yield (revenue per ton-mile) was declining by more than 2% per year, according to past editions of Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast.
But now the cost of sea transport has exploded, shifting a significant chunk of cargo from ocean freighters to their airborne equivalents. This is driving some retailers to use air transport. Home Depot, an American home-improvement retailer, is resorting to air freight to bring in smaller, higher-value items like power tools that it needs to keep on the shelves at all times.
Even before COVID-19, a growing share of air freight has come from e-commerce — thereby shifting the volume-to-weight considerations relative to “traditional” freight.
Will these trends continue even beyond the COVID crisis? And what impact will it have on the market for factory-built freighters and passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions?
Summary
- Soaring sea freight yields mean small shipments are now more economic by air than sea.
- Volumetric capacity matters more than max gross weight.
- New freighter options will compete with a glut of conversion feedstock.
- Air freight yields will eventually revert to historical trendlines in most regions.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 25. Safety monitoring and reporting
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
October 15, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we introduced the activities around Continued Airworthiness that we have to do during development and flight testing of our aircraft.
As described, the majority of accidents for aircraft are attributed to failings in Continued Airworthiness and Operations rather than design. We listed Continued Operational Safety, Operational Preparedness, and Service Readiness as the three important areas for Continued Airworthiness.
We dive into Continued Operational Safety first, specifically Safety Monitoring and Reporting.
Figure 1. A graph showing how an OEM and FAA surveys the operation of an aircraft and takes action. Source: Boeing.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 7, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we could see today’s high cargo prices can motivate a 325 seat Airbus A350-900 even though the passenger load on the routes would point to a 240 seat A330-800.
How far does this “paying for a larger aircraft with belly cargo” paradigm go? Today we see if Airbus’ largest aircraft, the A350-1000, can generate the margins of the A350-900 on freight-rich routes. Can an airline that has an A350-900 sized passenger demand for such routes go to an A350-1000 instead?
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo leads to surprising effects. Oversized passenger models can survive the passenger drought on today’s international routes as long as it’s a route with good freight demand.
Pontifications: Upping the game in eco Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: The pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the commercial aviation industry continues to increase.
Two weeks ago, Airbus hosted a day-and-a-half media event promoting its vision of moving toward decarbonizing aviation.
Boeing and Alaska Airlines last week hosted media for a touchy-feely event following up on the announcement in June by Boeing and Alaska of its joint ecoD (as Boeing calls it) program.
Boeing in October outlined progress of its ecoDemonstrator program, at the time with Etihad Airways as the partner. A 787-10 was used at that stage.
Mike Sinnett, Boeing VP of Product Development, said last week that the Alaska 737-9 MAX that is the focus of the current ecoD effort includes several ideas that would not make it into test on a stand-alone basis. But as part of a larger effort, little things that cumulatively can reduce drag and therefore fuel burn can be tested.