Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
Airbus in talks with Singapore for ultra-long range airplane; “A350-900LR” likely
We believe Airbus is close to launching an “A350-900LR” (Long Range) in response to talks with Singapore Airlines for a longer-range airplane.
July 14, 2015 © Leeham Co. Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing about an Ultra-Long Haul airplane that can fly from Singapore to the US non-stop.
The talks were first reported by Bloomberg News June 17, during the Paris Air Show.
Singapore discontinued the flights to Los Angeles and Newark when rising fuel prices made operation of the Airbus A340-500 used on the trips uneconomic.
Boeing currently has one airplane capable of service to Los Angeles, the current generation 777-200LR, which has a standard range of 8,665nm but not to Newark which is 8,300nm great-circle without the unpopular Additional Cargo-bay Tanks (ACT), any wind or longer range alternate would exceed the capabilities of 777-200LR in standard config. Los Angeles is 7,560nm from Singapore and when flying west the extra range in the standard 777-200LR would be needed to combat the prevailing westerly winds on the mission.
The Airbus A350-900 has a range of 7,900nm when transporting the same 301 passengers as 777-200LR. Boeing’s forthcoming 777-8X has a planned range of 9,300nm but it’s entry-into-service isn’t planned until around 2022.
Boeing 777X heading towards design freeze a bit heavier than planned.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
July 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. As we reported from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s 777X project is progressing to a design freeze later in 2015. At the briefing everything was presented as being on track with no changes of key data. There have been signs that this in not fully the case. The 777X program is suffering the same disease that hits other aircraft programs, weight gain flu.
To understand it better, we compiled the many indications that points to weight increase and ran them through our proprietary model to understand why and see what it means for the aircraft’s performance.
Summary:
- Weight increase is an evil that all aircraft programs battle with. Our analysis shows that 777X is no different.
- Engine thrust is one of the areas which will be increased to mitigate increased weight. We give the latest status of GE9X thrust development, now beyond 105,000 lb.
- A number of airframe changes have been made. We analyze their consequences and make predictions for future maximum weight increases.
Boeing’s McNerney on 787 costs, obsoleting airplanes
July 8, 2015: Bloomberg News interviewed Jim McNerney, then-CEO of The Boeing Co., June 15 at the Paris Air Show. (McNerney relinquished his CEO title a week later to Dennis Muilenburg.)
Although McNerney got it wrong on the ExIm Bank (he predicted approval before the sunset June 30), the other information he shared is interesting to hear.
- Current airplanes are being obsoleted at a faster rate than ever before.
- Volume production is Boeing’s “friend” on the 787, where costs continue to be a concern.
- Fuel pricing isn’t slowing sales.
The comments about obsoleting airplanes at a faster rate than ever before is a particularly interesting observation. Lessors base much of their business plan on expected useful life of the airplanes, residual values and the ability to sell aircraft for profit before obsolescence. Useful lives typically have been 25 years (before any freighter conversion potential), but the industry has been seeing some scrapping of far younger airplanes, both in the single-aisle and wide-body sectors–and not just for odd-ball airplanes like the Airbus A318. Airbus A319s, Boeing 737-700s, A320s, 737-800s and 777-200ERs have been sent to the scrap heap at relatively young ages that were unheard of a decade ago.
Boeing in line for large freighter order
July 8, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing may be close to a large cargo airplane deal that could solve several near-term problems, Leeham News and Comment has learned.
It’s not the 747-8F and the 777F may play only a small part of the transaction.
The plane is the venerable 767-300F, the old lady in the Boeing line up that is chugging along with just 35 in backlog, all for package carrier FedEx.
According to Market Intelligence, FDX is likely to order as many as 50 more 767-300Fs and perhaps up to 10 777Fs, a plane it has previously deferred.
FedEx has a board meeting this month in Seattle.
Airbus, Boeing YTD orders assessed (Update)
Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.
Update, July 8: In our original post, we omitted 44 Boeing 737NGs from the YTD firm orders. The charts and text have been updated to reflect this information.
July 7, 2015, © Leeham Co. Airbus pulled ahead of Boeing in firm orders through June, and both companies have a number of commitments that were announced at the Paris Air Show that aren’t included in the year-to-date tally.
Airbus leads with single-aisle orders and Boeing leads with widebody orders, but at the half-way point of the year, the contest is far from over. The leads could shift or increase, depending on how the balance of the year goes.
Pontifications: ExIm reform
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
Bjorn’s Corner: Bandit mask explained and nonexistent IFE boxes.
By Bjorn Fehrm
2 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Having aircraft as your interest exposes you to thousands of photos of your favorite subject. In general I find exterior photos of airliners a bit dull; there is no variation in their configuration or physics except for the livery of the operator. Some photos are a bit extra though. Read more
LEAP, the best of 1,000 investigated alternatives.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.
In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.
Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.
LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.
Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.
Summary:
- Research of optimal engine cycle was extensive, with more than 1,000 alternatives investigated before settling on the final LEAP cycle.
- The production ramp is the fastest ever, from 30 engines 2015 to 1,700 by 2019.
- While CFM does not want to ramp faster than planned, final production rate is flexible.
- The large volume of sold engines, the fast production ramp and the short-haul cycle makes for a conservative approach to performance.
- We discuss with Richards how such a program is managed and how you make sure you can deliver on promises.