Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
2023 outlook for Sustainable Aviation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: In the years from 2015, Sustainable Aviation awareness has grown from “something interesting, but will it be needed?” to “how do we fix the environmental issues we have fast enough.” Scientists saw what happened 20 years ago, but the general public didn’t react until it affected everyday life.
The development of more Sustainable Aviation solutions has taken a similar route. Until 2015 the changes to morph aviation into a more sustainable path were a scientific discussion. At Le Bourget Air Show 2015, Airbus presented the E-Fan (Figure 1) that would cross the English Channel the following month. It started an intense debate about sustainable propulsion concepts for aircraft.
Eight years later, where are we today, and what will happen in 2023?
Figure 1. Airbus E-Fan at the 2015 Le Bourget Air Show. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- The year will witness the “separation of the wheat from the chaff.” Viable concepts will prove themselves, and thin concepts, technically or funding-wise, will fail.
- We have a number of first flights from interesting projects. Several are in the “wheat” category.
Outlook 2023 for China’s COMAC and Russia’s UAC
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: China’s civil airliner OEM, COMAC, made significant progress during 2022. It achieved Chinese certification for its C919 158-seat domestic airliner in September last year, with the first delivery to the launch customer, China Eastern Airlines, in December. The first aircraft will be used in trial operations during 2023. The C919 follows the regional ARJ21, which has been in operation in China since 2016.
The progress, after several delays, of the COMAC programs is in stark contrast to the airliner progress of Russia’s UAC. The slow progress for the SSJ100, MC-21, and Il-114 programs has now ground to a standstill since the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions.
Figure 1. Test flight of the first series delivery C919 of China Eastern Airlines. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- China and COMAC have made significant progress in 2022 and will gradually build a viable airliner industry from 2023 onwards with a regional and single-aisle offering.
- The opposite is true of Russia’s UAC. A once viable airliner industry is now crushed by the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
Pontifications: Calhoun’s third year anniversary as Boeing’s CEO
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 10, 2023, © Leeham News: In three days, David Calhoun will “celebrate” his third anniversary as the chief executive officer of The Boeing Co.
I put “celebrate” in quotes because I’m not sure Calhoun really is in a celebrating mood. Boeing still has a big hole to climb out of and it’s going to be a few more years at least just to get back to 2019 production levels for the 737. Production levels for the 767/KC-46A are stable with a goal of increasing to 4/mo. Levels for the 777 remain at around two per month, pending certification of the 777X. Production of the 787 won’t get back to its peak of 14/mo, or even 12/mo. But Boeing hopes to achieve a production rate of 10/mo by mid-decade.
In the meantime, things are hardly running smoothly at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) or Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS).
David Calhoun
BCA remains plagued by quality control issues. Inexperienced workers hired to replace those who retired, accepted early buyouts, and normal attrition during the MAX grounding and COVID pandemic have learning curves. Clearing the grounded MAX inventory is slower than hoped. Clearing the 787 inventory will also be a slow slog.
Relations with the Federal Aviation Administration may be better than under Calhoun’s predecessor, Dennis Muilenburg. But Boeing doesn’t have its own “ticketing” (certification) authority restored and another safety investigation is about to begin.
BDS has its own long-standing issues. The Starliner and SLS space programs have been problematic. Losses and delays continue on the KC-46A, Air Force One, T-7, and MQ-25 programs. Legacy programs from the McDonnell Douglas era (the 1990s and before) recorded losses last year.
Boeing Global Services seems to be the only bright spot. Even Calhoun’s announcement on Nov. 2 that BCA won’t introduce a new airplane until the middle of the next decade drew a lot of raspberries from a wide swath of the industry—including, of all things, the Wall Street Journal.
Outlook 2023: Turboprops: Embraer and De Havilland look to future, leaving market to ATR
Embraer’s TPNG turboprop concept. A decision whether to launch the program has been delayed. Credit: Embraer.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Turboprops should be having a moment, given all the concern about how the aviation industry is contributing to climate change. Want to cut your fuel burn by 45%? Just retire your fleet of 70-seat regional jets and replace them with turboprops.
Yet even with concerns over the environmental (and monetary) costs of operating regional jets, there hasn’t been a big move toward turboprops. In December, Embraer announced it was putting the development of a 70-to-90-seat turboprop on hold. The reason: Suppliers can’t provide it with components (meaning engines) that will provide enough of a performance increase to make a new plane worthwhile.
Meanwhile, the orphaned De Havilland Dash-8 – now owned by a rebranded De Havilland Aircraft Canada – has been out of production since mid-2021.
That leaves the Franco-Italian consortium of ATR as the only OEM likely to deliver any turboprops to airlines in 2023, 2024 – maybe even beyond.
That could change by the end of the decade, however. Embraer is working on a hybrid-electric aircraft that could be ready as soon as 2030 in 19- and 30-seat versions. And a rebranded De Havilland Canada is taking steps to restart production of the Dash-8 at a new factory site in Alberta.
Summary
- Embraer focuses Energia on two models
- ATR working to certify STOL version of ATR42
- Can Dash-8 come back with new company, factory, workforce?
Read more
Outlook 2023: stabilizing operations at Boeing
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that resuming Boeing 787 deliveries was among the top 2022 priorities for the American OEM. Despite taking longer than envisioned (until August), the resumption of Dreamliner deliveries proved to be the high point of 2022 for Boeing Commercial Aviation (BCA).
The resumption of 737 MAX operations in China has still not materialized, and clearing the inventory of aircraft produced during the grounding is taking longer than envisioned. Boeing does not expect Chinese carriers to take delivery of their 140 737 MAXes for several years.
While Boeing launched the 777-8F, the 777X had another significant entry into service delay. The EIS is scheduled for 2025, around five years later than envisioned at the program launch in 2013. In October, a new problem with the giant GE9X engine emerged. Analysis is underway by GE. Whether there will be any additional impact on EIS remains to be seen.
Certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 appears to be on a path for success. In November, Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington State proposed extending the deadline from year-end 2022 for compliance with legislative requirements to install a new system called EICAS. EICAS monitors the 737’s systems and guides pilots in handling faults. EICAS is not on the already-certified MAX 8 and MAX 9. The legislation was passed with the assumption that the MAX 7 and 10 would be certified before the effective date.
However, the factors that most impacted BCA’s ability to generate cash flows were supply chain issues and labor shortages. Boeing has still not stabilized production on the 737 line at the announced goal of 31 per month.
In light of all the above, what lies ahead for Boeing in 2023?
Summary
- Critical to stabilize aircraft production;
- Financial drag from the Defense, Space & Security division;
- Avoiding more material certification delays;
- EcoAviation and lack of new product developments;
- Competing for orders without launching a new aircraft
Outlook 2023: Labor shortages continue to plague aerospace
Boeing 777 final assembly line in Everett (WA). Credit: Leeham News.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: Some aerospace suppliers say the industry is dealing with a shortage of production workers, as well as engineers. Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers, including engine companies, complain they can’t get to desired production rates because of, in part, a labor shortage.
It’s part of a broader phenomenon across all manufacturing, with one industry group saying there’s an immediate need for 2.1 million factory workers right now.
In some circumstances, this has meant raising wages. In Wichita, the “Aerospace Capital of the World,” there’s a bidding war going on for skilled aerospace mechanics. In Puget Sound, Boeing had to go back to the bargaining table with the Machinists Union in 2019, to negotiate $4-an-hour pay increases for entry-level workers. In Charleston (SC), Boeing reportedly struggles with a higher-than-normal attrition rate as workers leave for higher-paying jobs.
It seems inevitable that the lack of experienced workers will make it harder for companies to deliver parts and finished goods on time, and the absolute need to raise pay will cut into margins. Both these factors could very well be a drag on profits, even as airlines clamor for new aircraft that will increase manufacturers’ revenues.
Summary:
- Analysts warn of ‘labor headwinds’
- Spirit faced with ‘dynamic’ labor environment
- Boeing: 100 new mechanics a week?
- New-hire pay about the same as retail
- High turnover causes supply chain problems
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Outlook 2023: ramping up production at Airbus
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 2, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that ramping up single-aisle production would be Airbus’ major 2022 challenge. Increasing narrowbody aircraft production on the A220 and A320 lines proved more difficult than envisioned for the European OEM.
The war in Ukraine, which led to sanctions and higher energy bills, compounded the challenges for Airbus and its supply chain. Among the suppliers behind delivery schedules, engine manufacturers received the most attention earlier in the year. The situation has improved since then.
Airbus did not launch any new aircraft variants in 2022. While the A321XLR flight campaign started in June 2022, the program has accumulated a six-month delay. Entry into service is now planned for 2Q2024 instead of 4Q2023. The delays are caused mainly by the certification of the new rear center fuel tank into the fuselage.
Despite a production line full for several years, Airbus continued accumulating healthy numbers of A320neo orders, including from Chinese carriers. The cancellation of AirAsia X’s A330neo order improved the family’s order book quality. Net orders for the A350 family, including the freighter variant, have been muted but should pick up as long-haul traffic recovers. Airbus’ low point has been the ongoing court battle with Qatar Airways on the A350 paint issue, leading to the cancellation of the carrier’s order book.
Last but not least, Airbus announced many ecoAviation and sustainability initiatives throughout the year, culminating at its Annual Summit Nov. 30-Dec. 1.
Will 2023 be more of the same for the European OEM?
Summary
- Behind-schedule ramp-up on both single-aisle lines;
- New orders will determine the pace of the twin-aisle ramp-up;
- Avoiding further A321XLR certification delays;
- Robust cash flows allow sizable R&D spend on ecoAviation;
- No new product development and more A330neo orders?
Universal Hydrogen’s ATR72 Project
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we wrote about Universal Hydrogen’s (UH2) plans to fly a hydrogen-fueled demonstrator aircraft in early 2023, followed by a certified conversion kit for an ATR72 airliner mid-decade.
The plans for the ATR72 hydrogen conversion are at an advanced state. As the first publication, we can describe the overall design and the technical details. The ATR72 implementation brings improvements in several areas compared with what’s been revealed before.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank modules are loaded onto an ATR 72 using standard freight handling equipment. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The target ATR72 conversion improves hydrogen capacity and handling compared to earlier concepts.
- The influence on the ATR seating capacity is reduced due to more efficient packaging on the aircraft.
Suppliers expect Boeing to increase 787 rates next year
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By Bryan Corliss
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing suppliers are planning to increase their output to support the OEM’s plan to deliver five new-built 787s a month at some point in 2023.
Boeing wants to increase the production rate of the 787 to 5/mo by the end of 2023 and to 10/mo by 2025. The supply chain must hurry to prepare. Credit: Leeham News.
It will be challenging for the top-tier suppliers to scale up operations dramatically. They’ll have to train and maintain larger teams of workers, while also ensuring that their own lower-tier suppliers have the capacity to deliver parts and components on time.
One executive warned investors this fall that the challenges in the year ahead will be greater than the ones the industry faced delivering record numbers of planes before the pandemic.
Summary:
- Howmet: ‘Back of the year, at around 5 per month’
- Suppliers want more lead time given challenges
- Whole supply chain is under stress
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Universal Hydrogen could be first with Hydrogen Airliner
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) is perhaps weeks away from its first flight of a demonstrator that equips a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-300 with tanks of hydrogen and a fuel cell electric propulsion unit. The project shall prove the feasibility of hydrogen-fueled airliners.
The first flight’s date hasn’t been firmly set, but officials at UH2 told LNA it should be soon. Taxi tests of the aircraft will begin in the coming weeks. The flight will occur at Moses Lake in Central Washington State.
Universal Hydrogen supplies its hydrogen to the aircraft in prefilled barrel-sized tanks, called capsules, to avoid the lengthy and costly investment in storing and filling infrastructure at airports. The proof of concept is with a Dash 8, followed by a complete hydrogen conversion kit for an ATR-72 turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank pallets are loaded onto an ATR 72 by standard cargo loaders. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The core business of Universal Hydrogen is the prefilled hydrogen tanks that load onto the aircraft in pallets.
- Universal Hydrogen builds the complete hydrogen fuel and propulsion system to prove and bootstrap the concept of hydrogen airliners.