Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Forecast 2022: ATR has monopoly, De Havilland looks to hydrogen and Embraer lurks with new design
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR is now effectively the only turboprop manufacturer outside of China and Russia in the 40-80 seat sector. The models are the ATR 42-600, ATR 42-600S (STOL), and ATR 72-600.
The series was built on simplicity with unpowered controls and the simplest possible systems. It has worked well for ATR when selling to markets that want airlift to the lowest possible cost. It also means the design is at its limits capacity and speed-wise, any more capacity or performance and it needs powered controls and more elaborate systems. It was behind ATR’s desire to develop a new, larger model in the past.
But ATR has little reason to develop a new turboprop now that it is in a monopoly position. This could change if Embraer proceeds with its concept for a new family of two turboprops, a 70- and a 90-seat aircraft. Embraer’s base design could form the basis of a hydrogen-burning gas turbine model in the future.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 4P. Reality checks, the deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 28, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to the Part 4. Reality Checks article. It uses data from Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model to develop the relationship between OEW (Operational Empty Weight) and MZFW (Maximum Zero Fuel Weight) compared with MTOW (Maximum Take-Off Weight) for 74 airliners in the model.
The article also discusses in more detail what’s the reasons behind large weight misses for new projects and how it’s handled.
Emirates president says Boeing made life difficult
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. Credit: ET Travel World News.
Jan. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Despite vociferously criticizing Boeing over delays, technical difficulties and uncertainties over certification, delivery dates and performance, the president of Emirates Airline said the carrier is committed to the 777X.
Tim Clark said industry talk that Emirates may swap orders for the 777X for additional Boeing 787s isn’t correct.
Clark made his remarks in an interview with LNA on January 11. He also said he plans to retire within the next six months. Clark previously announced a retirement date but agreed to stay on to see Emirates through the pandemic crisis.
Summary
- “Boeing made life difficult.”
- Three-year delay has repercussions.
- The future of 777-8 passenger model is uncertain.
Carbon footprint: Regional jet versus turboprop, how large is the difference?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we kicked off a series of articles where we will measure what difference our choice of flying makes to the primary Greenhouse gas emission, CO2.
We have upgraded our airliner performance model for the series to give a direct output of the CO2 emissions for the flights in different phases.
We start this week by comparing a typical domestic feeder flight of 300 nm, with an example route of Cleveland to Chicago O’Hare. What will be the time differences? And the fuel burn and CO2 emission difference?
To make it a fair comparison, we’ll use present generation aircraft flying on the US market, the Embraer E175 and De Havilland’s DH 8-400. We will fly the DH 8 at a high-speed cruise to keep the flight time differences within 10 minutes.
Horizon Air DH 8-400. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- As expected, the turboprop is the more efficient mode of transportation on the route. It consequently emits less CO2 per transported passenger.
- With new, more comfortable turboprops in the works, the drive for sustainability could see a return of the turboprop to the US market.
Forecast 2022: IRKUT
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 24, 2022, © Leeham News: IRKUT became the Airliner company in Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation when the Superjet project was transferred from Sukhoi in February 2020.
The rationale was to focus the new single-aisle MC-21 and the regional Superjet in one entity where the needed investment in after-sales support, a chronic weakness of Russian aircraft, could be concentrated.
The MC-21 is the most advanced of the world’s single-aisle designs, with a roomy fuselage and a composite wing. But this, the market’s best design, has the worst chances for success. We go through why.
Summary
- The MC-21 has a fuselage design that makes it roomier without causing extra drag or weight.
- It also has the most advanced wing, an out-of-autoclave resin infusion design, the type which Airbus is aiming for in the “Wing of Tomorrow” project.
- But despite the best technology, it has the slimmest market chances. It has little to do with the aircraft itself.
Reducing one’s carbon footprint through flying choices
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Discussions about reducing commercial aviation’s carbon emissions have become more prominent over the last few years.
Many projects claim that electric(-hybrid) and hydrogen aircraft will be available in the not-too-distant future to make net-zero emissions flying a reality. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) will also drastically reduce lifecycle carbon emissions with only minor changes to the current aircraft.
The IATA committed to a net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050. While all those long-term aspirations are well, significant challenges remain.
LNA has highlighted that the low energy density of batteries means that electric aircraft can at best work on small planes for short flights. Developing a medium-haul hydrogen-powered aircraft will require numerous innovations that suggest an entry into service before 2035 is not realistic. The challenges in increasing SAFs supply affordably to meaningful levels are monumental.
We have pointed out that all the above are far into the future. To meaningfully reduce emissions over the next decade, the introduction of more fuel-efficient gas turbines and turboprops is the only realistic and impactful lever.
Another lever has not been mentioned so far to reduce one’s carbon emissions. Other than not flying at all, how we fly from A to B can have significantly different carbon footprint levels.
This series will highlight the different levels of carbon emissions depending on how one flies on different routes.
Summary
- Setting the problem out;
- Challenges in defining unit emissions;
- Factors outside one’s control;
- Introducing a few examples.
2022 Forecast: C919 EIS unlikely before 2023-24
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 17, 2022, © Leeham News: COMAC, the Chinese aerospace company developing the C919, suffered yet another setback last year.
It hoped to deliver the first aircraft, designed to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800/8, to China Eastern Airlines by year end. Not only didn’t this delivery take place, but the program is also only about 15% through the certification flight testing.
COMAC C919. Source: China Factor.
At this rate, certification, and delivery this year is questionable. LNA’s forecast for EIS is in 2023 or 2024.
COMAC’s other airplane, the regional jet ARJ21, landed its first order outside China (other than from lessor GECAS years ago).
Summary
- C919 is overweight, shortening range, and adversely affecting fuel economy.
- Commercial success of the C919 won’t be possible.
- ARJ21 lands first foreign operator, but it’s not an arm’s length deal.
Air freight growth: one-hit wonder or long-term trend?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
January 13, 2022, © Leeham News: COVID-19 has upended the freight world, with air delivery now becoming relatively economical versus the high premium they previously commanded over sea freight. While air freight yields on most trade lanes are 2-3x their pre-pandemic levels, sea freight yields are 8-10x their 2019 levels in lanes like Asia to North America and Asia to Europe.
Sea freight schedule reliability has fallen sharply over the past 18 months driven by a spectrum of port, labor, and container availability issues. Shippers are increasingly frustrated by the large and growing number of “blank sailings,” the industry’s term for canceled departures.
To offer customers backup options – and increase their value capture – ocean freight carriers are starting to buy their own aircraft. Maersk announced its purchase of two Boeing 777Fs in November, while CMA CGM Group said in December that it would order four Airbus A350Fs to complement its existing fleet of five Airbus A330Fs.
As the COVID crisis extends into its third year, will air freight demand prove sustainable at today’s levels? To what extent will capacity increase to match?
Summary
- Sea freight capacity will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
- New-build freighter availability is limited at present.
- Today’s air freight demand spike is unlikely to last beyond mid-decade.
Forecast 2022: Embraer
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer is the dominant regional jet aircraft supplier with a worldwide footprint and faces little competition to its products below 100 seats.
Between 100 to 150 seats, the situation is another after Bombardier “sold” its CSeries project to Airbus. Airbus’ might as aircraft OEM rekindled the CSeries as Airbus A220, and it’s now a vivid competitor to Embraer over 100 seats.
With a market it dominates and another where competition increases, we look at what’s in store for Embraer for 2022 as it hopes to exit the COVID pandemic for better times.
Embraer’s revised Turboprop. Source: Embraer.
Summary
- Embraer is a complete supplier with capable development, production, and worldwide support for its regional jets.
- Everything would be good had Bombardier, a player the size of Embraer, slugged it out with CSeries. The hand-over of the modern aircraft to Airbus changed the competitive landscape.
Estimating the A330neo replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries have been halted for 15 months, except for about a dozen early last year. There is still no clarity on when deliveries will resume, other than it may be in April.
When Boeing encountered severe Dreamliner delays in 2008, Airbus capitalized with a surge in A330ceo orders and deliveries. While long-haul traffic is far less buoyant than in the aftermath of the financial crisis, sustainability concerns mean that airlines will need to renew their twin-aisle fleets in future years.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the A330neo program faced slow sales. With a significant portion of its order book with airlines in precarious financial conditions, Airbus had to slow production on the A330 line to two per month last year.
To LNA’s surprise, Airbus announced plans to increase A330 production to three per month later this year. The recent A330neo orders by Condor and ITA Airways could give Airbus confidence it can gather more fleet replacement orders next year.
In light of the Dreamliner production problems, LNA assesses the size of the replacement market for the A330neo to capitalize on Boeing’s production problems.
Summary
- Estimating the addressable replacement market;
- Ruling out some potential customers;
- Highlighting possible but unlikely customers;
- A reduced list for plausible near-term orders;
- Program sales potential.