Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
One A380 departure of two 777-200ER alternatively 787-9? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
December 16, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the economics for an airline that dispatches one A380 instead of two smaller widebodies on a trunk route with heavy traffic.
Our example modeled British Airways, which uses the A380 on its highest volume Heathrow departures. Now we finish the series by going deeper into the analysis, examining all cost and revenue aspects, including looking at slot values on congested airports.
Summary
- The ultimate decision to fly one departure or two per departure wave on slot-constrained airports is the value of using one slot or two to transport x passengers on an airport like London Heathrow.
- We develop the revenue and costs factors and discuss the airline’s intangible values around this dilemma.
2022 Outlook depends largely on pandemic, Boeing recovery
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By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 13, 2021, © Leeham News: Attempting a forecast for the new year historically has been reasonably easy. One just started with the stability of the current years, and maybe the previous one or two years, and looked forward to next year.
Until the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, COVID-19 pandemic, and the Boeing 787 suspension of deliveries.
These events upended everything. Boeing’s outlook for 2020 depended on what happened to return the MAX to service. The grounding, initially expected by many to be measured in months, ultimately was measured in years.
The 2020 outlook for the rest of the aircraft manufacturers blew up that March with the global pandemic.
Then, in October 2020, Boeing suspended deliveries of the 787, exacerbating its cash flow crunch.
Commercial aviation began to recover some in late 2020. Airbus, which reduced but didn’t suspend deliveries throughout 2020, saw signs of hope for the narrowbody market—less so for widebody airplanes.
There is a lot of uncertainty, however, that makes looking even one year ahead challenging.
One A380 departure or two 777-200ER alternatively 787-9? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
December 9, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we checked the economics for an airline that dispatches one A380 instead of two smaller widebodies on a trunk route with heavy traffic.
Our example was modeled after British Airways, which uses the A380 on its highest volume Heathrow departures. We modeled flights where we only considered the passenger payload and looked at operating costs. Now, we add cargo to the mix and look at the generated on the flights.
Summary
- The A380 was surprisingly competitive against the compared aircraft when we looked at passenger traffic.
- As expected, when cargo is added, the A380 competitiveness declines. It’s now a matter of what a slot more costs on the departure and destinations airports.
A short history of production system development
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By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 6, 2021, © Leeham News: Long ago, aircraft were simple, made of steel tubing, wood, and fabric. Engineering staffs were small, and the craftsmen building them had little need for specific production planning instructions because they were very simple. This was the work environment
Boeing Model 40 at the Museum of Flight, Seattle.
when CAM4B and CAM 18, the Civil Aeronautics Board Manual 4b and 18, described how aircraft were designed, certified, built, and maintained. Think of Ford Trimotors, Fokker F10, Boeing Model 40s and 80s, and Lockheed Vegas. It was the golden age of air transport.
One A380 departure or two 777-200ER alternatively 787-9?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
December 2, 2021, © Leeham News: With the last Airbus A380 rolling of the production line in days, we started looking at why the A380 didn’t sell last week. Now we check its economics for an airline that can fill it. We fly one A380 versus two departures of smaller aircraft on a typical trunk route.
Our analysis takes British Airways as an example and whether it shall use an A380 on Heathrow to LAX at peak traffic or rather two departures with its Boeing 777-200ER or 787-9.
Summary
- When you can fill the A380, it’s surprisingly competitive even against a more modern aircraft like the 787-9.
- This is when we focus on passengers and cost.
- We change the analysis angle next week when we add cargo and look at margins rather than cost.
It’s time for a reality check on ecoAviation
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Nov. 29, 2021, © Leeham News: The goals are admirable and lofty: cut carbon emissions dramatically.
Boeing wants to have its 7-Series airplanes be 100% compatible with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2030. Whatever Boeing can do, so can Airbus.
Airbus wants to produce the first hydrogen-powered airliner, probably in the 70-seat sector, by 2035.
IATA, the International Air Transport Assn. industry trade group, set 2050 at the target for net-zero emissions.
All great ideas. Industry officials understand the challenges and realities. Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline, minced no words at the IATA AGM in October: Don’t make promises you can’t keep.
For the pie-in-the-sky crowd, the sheer numbers don’t add up. Replacing the thousands of Airbus A320ceos, A330ceos, Boeing 737 NGs, 757s, 767s, 777 Classics, Mitsubishi CRJs, and Embraer E1 jets with their successors—let alone, the successors to the successors—will take decades.
And this doesn’t even count replacement of today’s turboprops with a successor that doesn’t exist, followed by their successors.
Summary
- 20-year Forecast to 2040 shows about 4,000 single-aisle, mainline jets will remain in service by 2040. The majority of these flying today are older generation aircraft.
- There will be about 1,000 twin-aisle jets flying today that will be flying in 2040. These can be expected to be Boeing 787s, Airbus A350s and a small number of A330neos. Each is more environmentally friendly than previous generations.
- There will be a handful of four-engine jets flying by 2040, most likely cargo aircraft.
- Of the sub-100 seat category, there will be fewer than 300 jets flying in 2040 that are flying today. Some of these will likely be end-of-line CRJs plus late-model, older generation E175-E1s. Deliveries of the latter continue well into this decade because the future of the Embraer E175-E2 is uncertain.
Why the A380 didn’t sell
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 25, 2021, © Leeham News: The last A380 will be delivered to Emirates in the coming week, after a production run of only 251 units. Why didn’t Airbus sell more?
What was the trouble with the A380? Was it uneconomical, or was there some other problem? We look into the different factors that made it a hard sell to the world’s airlines and support this with comparisons with aircraft that sold better.
Summary
- The A380 had its shares of development problems, mainly in the installation of a complex electrical system. Still, overall the development and production went reasonably well for being a new type for Airbus.
- We have over the years shown that its seatmile costs were competitive versus alternatives. What was then the problem? Why didn’t it sell?
Regional Aircraft production
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, LNA looked at Airbus and Boeing’s planned twin-aisle production rates. We now turn our attention to production rates in the regional aircraft market.
The production of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industry-owned CRJ ceased earlier this year, while De Havilland of Canada’s Q400 will also end soon. Few expect production on the latter program to restart.
KLM E-Jet
MHI also halted the development of its MRJ/SpaceJet, with a program restart unlikely at this point. These exits mean that ATR and Embraer will be the only major regional OEMs outside China and Russia.
ATR announced plans to raise its combined ATR42 and ATR72 production to 50 aircraft annually. LNA will investigate whether the turboprop’s order book justifies such an increase.
LNA will separately analyze the Embraer E175 and E-Jet E2 production. Since the E-Jet E2 Embraer program competes with Airbus’ A220, we will also look at production plans on the latter.
Summary
- An optimistic ATR production plan;
- Comparing E175 and E Jet-E2 production;
- Steady A220 production plans;
- Orders at risk;
- Other OEMs.
The end of A380 production
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Emirates’ 100th A380 delivered
Nov. 18, 2021, © Leeham News: The 251st and final A380 delivery to Emirates will happen in the next few weeks before the end of the year. With that in mind, LNA thought it relevant to look back on the Superjumbo. The program meant so much for Airbus but ultimately failed to live up to its high commercial expectations.
Summary
- Competing visions to meet future air travel growth;
- A relatively less delayed entry into service;
- Ongoing struggles to accumulate new orders;
- Future operational prospects;
- Where the Superjumbo works and does not.
Update on twin-aisle production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 15, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing updated their commercial production plans a few weeks ago, including rates on their twin-aisle families.
As a result of solid freighter demand, Boeing is considering increasing the 777F production rate from around 1.5 per month. Lingering production issues leave the Dreamliner assembly line at two per month until deliveries resume. The 767 line stays at three per month for now.
Airbus delayed an increase in the A350 production rate from five to six per month to early 2023. However, the OEM surprised the market by announcing an increase in the A330 production rate to three per month by late 2022.
LNA has repeatedly pointed out the weak A330neo order book in recent years. Airbus said that recent commercial successes allow it to ramp up A330 production.
While Boeing was more cautious about a near-term recovery in twin-aisle aircraft orders, Airbus recently stated that interest was picking up. LNA investigates the latest production plans on commercial twin-aisle programs and compares them with early 2020 and 2021.
Summary
- A head-scratching A330 production increase;
- Pushing 777X deliveries to the right;
- Differing plans for the A350 and 787;
- Sustaining the 767 production rate.