Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 23, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business: to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or with dedicated freighter aircraft?
We could see in last week’s article that air freight companies have generally been more profitable over the last decade than passenger airlines. Why?
We continue the analysis by looking at the cost of flying cargo in passenger airliner bellies versus dedicated freighters.
Summary
- At today’s high fuel prices, transporting cargo in a passenger aircraft’s belly is cheaper than on freighters when we do a first-level analysis.
- Does this change when we go deeper?
Commercial Aircraft programs duration from launch to delivery over the years
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: New airplane programs used to come to market in four years. Now, the launch-to-entry-into-service period has been seven years or more. (Chinese and Russian programs take even longer.)
Boeing launched the 787 in December 2003. EIS was October 2011. Airbus’ A350, launched in response to the 787 in 2004, went through several iterations which added time to the program. Delays added more time. EIS was in January 2015.
Bombardier’s C Series was launched in 2008. EIS was in July 2016. The Boeing 777X was launched in 2013. EIS is now targeted for 2025. Boeing launched the 747-8 in 2005. EIS was in 2011. The Boeing 737 MAX was launched in July 2011. EIS was May 2017. Airbus’ A320neo was launched in December 2010. EIS was in January 2016.
Boeing has been discussing the New Midmarket Airplane (or whatever it was called throughout changing nomenclature) since 2012. It still hasn’t launched the program. Once it does, how long will it take to enter service?
Credit: Boeing
Any new program is a multi-year, multi-million investment that, in the worst case, can take decades before recovering the initial development and production ramp-up expenditures.
Several recent programs, notably the 777X, have faced significant delays between the envisioned and actual start of deliveries to airlines.
Boeing claims that advances in manufacturing techniques will reduce the time required to develop the next aircraft program. However, regulatory scrutiny is higher nowadays and the aircraft built are more complex than in previous generations.
LNA analyzes how the time between the program launch and entry into service has evolved since the beginning of the Jet Age. The goal is to find whether there is a trend and in what direction. The analysis focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas.
Summary
- An unmistakable trend;
- The latest clean sheet designs took significantly longer;
- Engine development dictates recent derivative program timelines;
- Future program considerations.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business; to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
The market clearly says both, as this is the state of affairs. Market economy says a business will find its optimal form, and it’s about fifty-fifty now. But what are the plus and minuses of these two very different ways of transporting cargo, and why do we have the present situation?
We search for answers by looking at the transport fundamentals and comparing costs with revenues.
Summary
- About half of the world’s cargo flies in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and the other half flies on dedicated freighters.
- What are the factors that have created this division, and will it change?
Migrating advanced processes from Defense to Commercial isn’t a cakewalk for Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s CEOs, David Calhoun and his predecessors Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, said repeatedly the next Boeing airplane (NBA) will be as much as about production as it will be about the airplane. In fact, Calhoun says production is key to designing, producing, and delivering a less expensive airplane that will underpin the value proposition going forward.
Engine technology advances might achieve a 10% reduction over today’s CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan engines. So, advanced design and production is key to the business case for the NBA.
Despite using these advancements on Boeing defense programs (the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueling airplane), assimilating them into commercial airplane development and production has high hurdles.
Summary
- Boeing has had mixed success using advanced technology design and production on its current commercial programs.
- Regulatory approvals will be challenging.
- Engines will be 10% better than the LEAP and GTF—but are these the correct comparisons?
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 23P. Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. The deeper discussion.
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June 10, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 23, Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. It analyses the masses and efficiencies of a 70-seat airliner equipped with the fuel cell-based propulsion systems we analyzed last week.
How Boeing is Rebuilding Engineering Excellence
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As described in our Monday article, Boeing is preparing for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). At the same time, the company is hard at work to ensure this will be no repeat of the 787 and 737 MAX program debacles.
The 2022 Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report was issued two weeks ago. It gives insight into the work that shall ensure such failures won’t happen again. Here is what the report says about how Boeing is rebuilding its Engineering Excellence.
Summary
- The 787 and 737 MAX failures came from a company culture where engineering excellence played second fiddle to short-term business objectives.
- Boeing has now made changes from the board level to how it organizes its engineers. These changes go in the right direction, but will they be enough?
Boeing’s steps toward its next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing will launch a new airplane program, vows David Calhoun, CEO of The Boeing Co. Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), said Boeing is going through the “prerequisites” for a new airplane, according to Bloomberg news. Skeptics remain doubtful, noting research and development spending remains at historic lows and definitive action remains out of sight.
Boeing’s next new airplane could be a twin-aisle, similar to the New Midmarket Airplane concept, or a single aisle to complement the 737-10 more along the lines of a 757-200 and 757-300. Photo credit: Leeham News.
“The dilemma for Boeing is whether to wait to see if the new technology pans out, ‘or do we run the propulsion system one more time before we go to that next technology suite?’ Deal said in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Royal Aeronautical Society,” Bloomberg reported in January. Calhoun, in an appearance at Bernstein Research Friday, said engines aren’t advanced enough for a new airplane to counter the Airbus A321neo.
Nevertheless, if one looks carefully, steps moving toward a new airplane program are there. LNA analyzed Boeing’s recent job hiring spree, which includes engineers, technicians, and other positions. Some of these are specifically for new airplane jobs. Boeing last year spent millions of dollars above contract requirements with SPEEA, its professional union, to retain engineers and technicians. Last year, Boeing named a new leader for its Digital Design Team for a new airliner. The Design Team recently studied lessons learned from defense programs for application to BCA.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 22P. Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. The deeper discussion.
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June 3, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 22, Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. It analyses the power, loss, mass, and efficiency consequences of the different fuel cell architectures described in the main article.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 2, 2022, © Leeham News: We tested the notion that it’s more economical to divide a long flight into two shorter flights last week. The test was a typical long-range flight of 11 to 12 hours.
We found that if all operational costs are counted (the so-called Cash Operating Costs, COC), the theory didn’t work. You gain on fuel costs, but you are doubling other costs like landing fees, etc.
Now we test the theory on an Ultra Long Range (ULR) flight, using our Performance and Operational Cost model.
QANTAS 787-9. Source: QANTAS
Summary
- The widespread idea of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight applies to ULR flights.
- The theory says this is because a long flight takes more fuel than two shorter flights. It’s not the main reason why the theory holds for ULR flights.
Boeing’s hiring spree points to progress toward Next Boeing Airplane
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By the Leeham News Team
May 30, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing is hiring again.
Boeing’s hiring spree is aimed at replacing engineers, technicians, retirees and jobs lost in Russia and Ukraine. But an analysis also points to gearing up for the Next Boeing Airplane. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
The pendulum of staffing swings back and forth in the aerospace industry.
Today’s hiring events are one of several steps beyond the highly visible need to deliver airplanes required to rebuild Boeing. Rebuilding its brain drain and positioning itself for its next new airplane is another required step. Repairing the damage to its once-gold standard safety reputation is another. Boeing also is moving to fix this issue.
Historically, companies chase the proper mix of employees and never get it right. The reason for the personnel churn is the nature of the skills needed and the timing of their need.
In an attempt to get ahead of this problem, Boeing spent millions of dollars last year to retain SPEEA-represented engineers and technical employees at the Everett final assembly site. This reverses a decades-long trend to downsize the employed workforce through outsourcing or shifting union jobs from Washington State to out-of-state locations.
To understand why this happens, we need to look at the cascading of work through the Commercial Airplanes division starting with a single product.