Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Boeing, SPEEA and Union Reamalgamation
Editor’s Note: This is another in a series of articles examining the future of Boeing, its unions and Washington state. There first article appeared here. The second appeared here.
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Dec. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: In a past element of this series, LNA looked at a potential path forward for IAM 751 Machinists District members to become a profit center as opposed to a pure cost to Boeing.
The Prime Directive is for Boeing to make money.
Boeing must be profitable. This is its mission for shareholders, employees, the supply chain, new development, for Washington and other states and for the US economy.
Boeing must then by definition divorce itself from unnecessary costs. Boeing defines SPEEA as an unnecessary cost. SPEEA is in the same position as the IAM in that it must change this reality. The path forward would be a huge lift, it involves some un-union-like thinking in a couple of areas.
Summary:
- Trust, need and profitability.
- Reinventing technicians.
- A strong case for SPEEA.
Pontifications: Lessons of the Titans: Book review
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: If you want a good business book to read over the Christmas holidays, get Lessons from the Titans by three analysts at the independent Melius Research Co.
The subtitle, a mouthful, aptly describes the book: “What companies in the new economy can learn from the great industrial giants to Drive Sustainable Success.”
Yes, I know. The first reaction to a “business book” is, how boring. Not so, this one.
The analysts are Scott Davis, Carter Copeland and Rob Wertheimer. They provide first-hand and often insider accounts of their coverage of some of the USA’s most significant industrial companies.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 17. Hydrogen airliner program
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 11, 2020, ©. Leeham News: We use this Corner to define the time table for our hydrogen airliner program and for what areas we need to conduct risk-reducing research before we embark on an actual design.
As we said in last week’s Corner, we aim to develop a hydrogen airliner for the heart of the domestic market after the COVID-19 Pandemic. It’s a 160 to 180 seat single-aisle turbofan driven airliner, using liquid hydrogen as the fuel.
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe hydrogen-fueled airliner concepts. Source: Airbus.
The 717 and A220, Part 2: Operational economics comparison
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
December 10, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we introduced the Boeing 717 and its closest replacement size-wise, the Airbus A220-100. Delta, a major 717 customer, is accelerating the replacement of the 717 with the A220-100 under the pressure of the COVID19 pandemic.
We use our performance model to understand why. What are the gains when going from the 717 to an A220-100?
Delta Airlines Boeing 717-2BD landing at LaGuardia. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- The 717 version of the DC-9 architecture produced a rugged and well-liked short-haul airliner. It’s five abreast cabin is preferred over the six-abreast Boeing 737 and Airbus A320.
- It’s size-wise in the same 115 seat bracket as the 15 years younger Airbus A220-100. It’s 40 years old airframe architecture holds up well compared to the modern A220.
- The engines of the two are also 15 years apart. But the Rolls-Royce BR715 of the 717 was originally designed to fly on fast business jets, necessitating a low by-pass ratio design. This is a handicap when used on lower speed airliners. It shows against the high bypass ratio Pratt & Whitney PW1500G of the A220.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Embraer’s Turboprop
Dec. 7, 2020, (c) Leeham News: Embraer studies whether to develop a new generation turboprop to compete with and replace the ATR-72 and De
Havilland Canada Dash 8-400. Both of these airplanes were designed in the 1980-90s, although each went through updates and modernization.
Developing a new turboprop has lots of challenges. Not the least is the size of the market.
Embraer’s preliminary concept for a new generation turboprop airliners. Source: Embraer.
LNA’s Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm discuss the Embraer “E3” concept in the next installment of the “10 Minutes About” series of podcasts.
A year of reckoning for Low-Cost Long-Haul
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous carriers have either ceased operations or gone into court-supervised restructurings. Among those undergoing restructurings are the world’s two largest low-cost long-haul airlines, AirAsia X and Norwegian Air Shuttle.
Both carriers were in a precarious financial condition before the pandemic. Their troubles contrast with the financial solidity of some major low-cost airlines, including Ryanair and Wizz Air.
IAG closed its Level base in Paris Orly, while Lufthansa ceased SunExpress Deutschland’s operations. NokScoot, a joint venture between Singapore Airlines and Nok Air, also ceased operations after years of losses.
Before the COVID-19 outbreak, Primera Air ceased operations in 2018. Wow Air and XL Airways folded in 2019. Along with AirAsia X’s and Norwegian’s financial struggles, this raises questions about the viability of the low-cost long-haul business model.
LNA looks at the sequence of events that led to four major carriers’ failure and the viability of their business models.
Summary
- Low-cost long-haul isn’t new;
- Bringing no-frills to the next level;
- Undercapitalized for the level of risk;
- When going mainstream does not work;
- One certainty and a question mark on viability.
Pontifications: Don’t lose sight of the future, says top Boeing exec
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: “It’s really important that we stay in tune with the market dynamics, making the adjustments we need to do and not lose sight of the future. Which is absolutely we are not doing.”
Greg Smith, the of Enterprise Operations and chief financial officer for The Boeing Co., added, “We haven’t lost sight of the importance of making investments that are critical to the future of the business. So, when we think about future product strategy, we’re continuing to reprioritize and streamline our R&D investments to CapEx.
“When we were in pursuit around the NMA, we asked the team to step back and reassess the commercial development strategy and determine what family of aircraft to be needed for the future. And that team continues to work and they’re building off the work that we did on NMA.”
Smith made the remarks at last Friday’s Credit Suisse annual conference.
Boeing further trims 787 production; now sees 5/mo in 2021
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 4, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing will cut the production rate for the 787 to 5/mo by mid next year, it was revealed today. Officials previously announced a rate cut to 5/mo.
EVP Greg Smith made the announcement at the annual Credit Suisse conference, organized by analyst Robert Spingarn.
The rate adjustment is further indicative of the weakness in the widebody market.
Boeing also has a large number of undelivered 787s. This is due in part to COVID, but also due to quality control and safety issues. Earlier this year, Boeing revealed safety and QC issues emerged from body joins and other factors were discovered.
Deliveries unwinding the inventory will continue through 2021, Smith said.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 16. A Hydrogen airliner
December 4, 2020, ©. Leeham News: To dig a level deeper into the challenges of hydrogen airliners, as a next step we design such a plane (on a high level), now that we have covered the basics.
It will make us traverse the fundamental design tradeoffs of such a design. Reflecting on what we discussed in Part 3, “The Application Space for a Hydrogen Airliner,” we focus on the single-aisle short-haul domestic market, Figure 1.
Figure 1. CO2 emissions per aircraft type and range flown. Source: EU Hydrogen Powered Aviation report.
Ryanair orders 737 MAX, giving boost to Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 3, 2020, © Leeham News: Ryanair today announced an order for 75 Boeing 737-8 200 MAXes.
This is the first big order for the airplane since the March 10-13, 2019, grounding. It’s the first since the US Federal Aviation Administration and Brazil’s ANAC lifted their grounding orders last month.
Europe’s EASA plans to lift its grounding order in January. Ryanair, of Ireland, can’t fly the MAX until EASA acts.
The deal is a boost for Boeing and a vote of confidence in the MAX. The global fleet was grounded following the second of two fatal accidents.