Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.
Preview of Rolls-Royce Capital Markets Day
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s Capital Market Day is tomorrow. “Our multi-year transformation programme will deliver a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. Join us to find out how we are going to do it and what a stronger Rolls-Royce will mean for all our stakeholders,” the company says on its website.
“Our multi-year transformation programme has started well with progress already evident in our strong initial results and increased full-year guidance for 2023. There is much more to do to deliver better performance and to transform Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. We will share the outcome of our strategy review along with medium-term goals for the Group in November,” said CEO Tufan Erginbilgic on its website.
It has some other questions to answer, too.
An order for Airbus A350-1000s was expected to be announced at the Dubai Air Show by Emirates Airline. Another order, for a combination of A350-900s, -1000s, and A320neo, was expected from Turkish Airlines. Neither materialized—and, LNA is told, issues with the Trent XWB 97 were one reason.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 39. Production
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 23, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at production.
The focus and work around the production of an airliner has increased over the last decade. Why this renewed focus?
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Further developments of the A321, Part 6
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 23, 2023, © Leeham News: We do an article series about what can be the subsequent development for Airbus’ most popular aircraft, the A321neo. We looked at different changes to the aircraft in previous articles and the economics in short haul configuration. Now, we compare the capacity and economics of the different variants when configured for long-haul missions.
We use our Airliner Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to look at passenger capacity, seat-mile costs, and range.
Summary:
- A stretched A321 is limited as a long-haul aircraft, as it needs additional fuel and additional takeoff weight to carry the fuel.
- Long-haul variants of a stretched A321 will need the XLR center tank or the new, larger wing of an A32x to extend the range to long-haul values.
Risk-Adjusted Business
By William Loh, International Aviation Advisors, and Dr. David Yu, CFA, Senior ISTAT Appraiser, AAVA Group, NYU Shanghai and Stern.
Nov. 21, 2023, © Leeham News: We have been involved in aircraft finance for long enough now to have seen many things, some good and some bad. Too many investors did not know what they didn’t know, and this eventually led some to make expensive and even ugly mistakes. One of the keys is to find a more independent market-oriented risk evaluation.
This means they have invested in the wrong aircraft/deals, got their numbers wrong, went broke, and then ended up wound up and kicked out. Not to mention their investors who were caught out and surprised at the same time. Not great, and once you break the eggs, you won’t be getting any more.
To help get the numbers right concerning the finer points of lease parameters, we’ve developed simulation models to forecast market values/lease rates, as well as analyze the IRR/NPV of lease deals. A single-point, 10-year forecast in a non-linear market like this has never made much sense. There is no 100% certainty with an outlook number 10 years away, but varying levels of confidence and associated probabilities. This is analogous to how we can’t forecast the temperature tomorrow without using a distribution.
We also study the population of aircraft and the many performance differences between them, since this influences the lessors and airlines who may need them, and their relative market valuations, useful lives, and equity returns over time. If you are not sure what that stabilizer is doing back there, you might need to know a little more about airplanes.
Boeing beats Airbus in order tallies at Dubai Airshow thanks to widebody jetliner demand
By Dan Catchpole
Subscription Required
Nov. 20, 2023 © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the Dubai Airshow, racking up 313 orders—232 firm and 81 non-firm. Meanwhile, Airbus garnered only 86 orders, as of Friday, the last day of the biennial airshow.
Credit: Boeing
It was the first time that American aerospace giant has beaten its European competitor at Dubai since 2017. Heavy demand for twin-aisle aircraft helped Boeing land more orders.
A much anticipated mega order by Turkish Airlines for Airbus jetliners didn’t materialize. However, both entities said they plan to announce a significant order in the future.
Summary
- Widebody orders lead narrowbody orders
- Resurgent international travel demand drive order split
- Performance problems soften demand for Airbus A350
Airbus eyes carbon capture to broaden its eco arsenal
Subscription Required
By Gordon Smith
November 20, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus’ flagship decarbonization initiative appears to be gaining momentum. The European OEM is betting big on Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DAC) next-generation facilities that remove CO2 directly from the air to compensate for emissions produced by airline operations.
Airbus has described the technology as a “key bastion in the fight against climate change and the world’s transition to a net-zero energy system”. It has partnered with 1PointFive – a US partner of Canadian firm Carbon Engineering – to bring the innovative system to the aviation sector.
Last month, easyJet became the first airline to ink a deal with Airbus for the decarbonisation initiative. The OEM is offering carriers ‘carbon removal credits’ as part of a broader deal with 1PointFive. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 38. Flight tests
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 17, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different design phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design and the manufacturing of prototypes and their roles, we now look deeper at the flight test phase.
Figure 1. The flight test fleet for the certification of a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Further developments of the A321, Part 5
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 16, 2023, © Leeham News: We have done an article series about what can be the subsequent development for Airbus’ most popular aircraft, the A321neo. We looked at different changes to the aircraft in previous articles. Now, we compare the capacity and economics of the different variants.
We use our Airliner Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to examine passenger capacity, range, and seat-mile costs.
Summary:
- The stretched A321s have improved operating economics.
- The question is if the cost and time of the projects are motivated versus keeping the A321s “as is” and then make a clean sheet replacement.
Has Airbus pinned too much of its hopes on LCC growth?
Subscription Required
By Judson Rollins
November 14, 2023, © Leeham News: Much ink has been spilled over the bad – and increasingly worse – year for America’s low-cost carriers or LCCs. Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, and Spirit have all reported disappointing results, with increasingly negative outlooks for the rest of this year and well into 2024.
Source: DigitalAirliners.com.
The future of the LCC model is increasingly murky, having historically depended on consistent double-digit capacity growth to spread fixed costs. Such rapid growth is imperiled in the short term by reluctant lower-income consumers, in the intermediate term by shortages of airplanes, parts, and skilled staff, and in the long term by a growing worldwide pilot shortage.
Boeing’s 737 MAX has its share of LCC exposure; LNA analysis puts it at 37% of unfilled orders. But Airbus’s A220 and A320 programs are even more intensely exposed, with 48% of combined orders coming from LCCs.
Will Airbus’s focus on selling to LCCs eventually return to haunt the OEM? We take a closer look.
Summary
- US LCCs are hampered by excess capacity; is a shakeout coming?
- Europe is brighter for now but faces near- and long-term constraints.
- Airbus has more to lose than Boeing in a global LCC retreat.