Leeham on-line poll: 61% expect no contract agreement with SPEEA, Boeing; 57% expect strike

We put two polls into the public domain this week, asking whether SPEEA and Boeing will reach an agreement next month; and if not, will SPEEA strike (a target date is Feb. 1).

The results are in: 61% expect no agreement when talks resume Jan. 9 and 57% expect SPEEA to strike. (These figures reflect results as of this writing. The data may change after this post because polling is still open.)

The percentages are a significant drop from the 96% vote that rejected the Boeing contract offer in October, but it should be noted there is no new offer on the table for SPEEA members to read and evaluate.

Additionally, this poll is of our readers and not specific to SPEEA.

Clearly the expectations are not good.

SPEEA’s executive director, Ray Goforth, is on record expecting talks to fail immediately when they resume because the gap between the union asks and the Boeing positions are so far apart. A strike vote will be solicited once talks break off.

Unlike the IAM 751, which requires a two-thirds affirmative vote for a strike, SPEEA requires only a simple majority.

“We have no specific target [for a strike vote] other than that,” Goforth tells us. ” SPEEA is a democratically run union.  Decisions are made by majority vote as supplemented by broad consultation with the membership (townhall type meetings, polls, feedback from the elected councils).
“In the run-up to the October 1st vote the Boeing management negotiating team confidently predicted that the contract would be adopted because they knew what the employees wanted better than the union,” Goforth wrote us.
“Today, we at hearing the same language from Boeing management.  Today, we are experiencing the same dismissiveness and disregard from Boeing management.
“Boeing management is still proposing across-the-board pay and benefit cuts for engineers and techs while increasing compensation for themselves and the shareholders.  We expect any such proposal to be rejected by the membership.”

Predict: What will be the most momentous event of 2013?

2013 stands to be a pretty eventful year, and we’ve listed thoughts for you to vote on. We’ll hide results until voting is complete.

Now a key question: SPEEA and Boeing are on a collision course. Talks resume Jan. 9, but SPEEA already is on record believing talks will immediately collapse. A strike date of Feb. 1 is targeted, but membership has to take a strike vote before a walk out can occur. It’s your turn to vote:

If a contract agreement is not reached, will SPEEA actually go on strike or will talks continue?

2012’s Most Momentous event: were readers correct?

A year ago we asked the following question and received the results. Now that 2012 is all but over, do you agree with your own forecasts?

What is the most momentous event you predict for 2012?

Answer Percent
Boeing doesn’ t ramp of 787 as expected 28%
Airbus slips its schedule for the A350 23%
Boeing meets ramp up expectations for the 787 12%
Airbus stays on schedule with the A350 11%
US Airways makes a bid for American Airlines 10%
Bombardier has first flight of CSeries by year end 9%
American Airlines tells US Airways to sniff its own exhaust 4%
Bombardier’s first flight for CSeries slips into 2013 2%

Odds and Ends: E-190 v Superjet v BBD in Russia; China’s aviation; WestJet’s speed dating; Crandall speaks

E-190 v Superjet v Bombardier: With the finding that the pilot of the demo flight of the Sukhoi SSJ 100 Superjet simply flew into a mountain in Indonesia, rather than there being a problem with the airplane, the cloud has been lifted from the aircraft. So the direct match-up of the SSJ vs the Embraer E-190 can now be compared and this article does so. Bombardier’s CRJ-900 and CRJ-1000 also compete.

China’s Aviation: Airbus and Boeing think China pose the greatest threat in the future, but this analyst is less enthusiastic.

WestJet of Canada: The low cost carrier took a bold step to order up to 45 Bombardier Q400s to feed itself. Now it’s using speed dating to decide where to fly the airplanes.

Crandall speaks on AA-US merger: Former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall weighs in on the merger between American Airlines and US Airways.

Vote for the Best Airplane/Airport Movie

All the nominations seem in, and we’ve added a few of our own. Now it’s time to vote for the Best Airplane/Airport Movies (limited to commercially-based airplanes this time).

There is a separate poll for the Worst Airplane/Airport Movie. Some movies appear on both lists, reflecting differences of opinion.

We’re going to hide the results until voting is done.

Vote for the Worst Airplane/Airport Movie

The nominations are in. Now it’s time to vote for the Worst Airplane/Airport Movie. There is a separate poll for the Best Airplane/Airport Movie. A few movies appear on both lists, reflecting a difference in opinions.

We’re going to hide the results until voting is complete.

Odds and Ends: CSeries and London City Airport; new life for BAe-146; SPEEA’s next step

It’s Christmas Eve but there is some news despite this being a slow day.

CSeries and London City Airport: The downtown airport is a highly challenging one. Aircraft have a challenging approach. The runway is short. British Airways operates the Airbus A318 to New York with a refueling stop westbound. Bombardier says its CSeries can do the trip non-stop. This article provides some detail.

New Life for BAe-146: This airplane didn’t have much to recommend it. In its original 3×3 configuration, it was a cramped airplane. It had four engines. The original engines were unreliable. But here’s a new life for them.

SPEEA’s next step: The Boeing engineers’ union takes another step to prepare for a strike, beginning Feb. 1.

Ed Colodny on US Airways mergers: He headed Allegheny Airlines and US Air for years, guiding the carrier through four mergers–including Piedmont Airlines, which critics widely considered that he screwed up, and PSA, which US did screw up. The Street gets his thoughts on the potential American Airlines merger.

GEnx PIPs slip a bit: The Performance Improvement Package program for the GEnx engine that powers the Boeing 787 and 747-8 has slipped a bit, according to this article.

Nominations Wanted for the Best airliner/airport type movie

Let’s lighten up over the Christmas holiday and get some good reader participation.

How about submitting as many nominations as you want for the Best Movies involving airliners and/or airports. These can be as recent as Denzel Washington’s “Flight” or as old as…whatever.

These can be dramas such as The High and the Mighty or spoofs such as Airplane. We’re also going to allow Island in the Sky, which although a war movie used DC-3s/C-47s, which of course are airliners. The Terminal is an example of an “airport” movie. The Castaway, while having an airplane a key element and having a major scene at the Memphis Airport, isn’t really a movie that falls into either category.

Make your case in nominating these movies. When it appears nominations have petered off, we’ll compile them into a poll for voting.

We also have a separate poll for the Worst Airplane Movie.

Nominations Wanted for the Worst airplane/airport movies

Let’s lighten up over the Christmas holiday and get some good reader participation.

How about submitting as many nominations as you want for the Worst Movies involving airliners and/or airports. These can be as recent as Denzel Washington’s “Flight” or as old as…whatever.

These can be dramas such as Airport 77 or Airport 79: The Concorde or spoofs such as Airplane 2. Or they can be really ridiculous plots such as Snakes on a Plane. (You can guess a few of our nominations for Worst Airplane Movies….)

Make your case in nominating these movies. When it appears nominations have petered off, we’ll compile them into a poll for voting.

We also have Nominations for the Best Airplane/Airport movies.

Odds and Ends: Mystery Photo #7; Ipad father; SPEEA ups strike prep; end of the world

This is the start of Christmas weekend (none of this “Happy Holidays” stuff) and we don’t expect much news between now and the first of the year. But we’re around and may post if so inspired.

Here’s Mystery Photo #7: What is the artist rendering of this flying machine?

Mystery #7

IPad Father: And since it is Christmas and some of us old poops might be getting some newfangled toys, this video is instructive.

SPEEA Ups Strike Prep: And a Happy New Year to you, Boeing: SPEEA is increasing its preparations for a strike beginning Feb. 1. See this story. We hope somehow cooler heads prevail on both sides.

The end of the World: Today, of course, is the end of the world, according to the Mayan calendar–or so some proclaim. CNN Travel has these suggestions in keeping with this spirit. And y’all think we have a warped sense of things.

And here was the forecast for today: