Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 18. Minor drags
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 23, 2023, ©. Leeham News: In our series about technologies that influence the efficiency of a new generation of airliners, we have covered the dominant drag of an airliner, air friction drag, and the second largest drag, induced drag, and what can be done about them. Now we look at Pressure drag and Interference drag.
We will finish with Transonic drag next week, which requires a full Corner to explain well.
Figure 1. The drag types that affect our airliners. Source: Leeham Co.
Paris Day Four: Air show winds down as Spirit strike looms over industry
By Bryan Corliss
June 22, 2023, © Leeham News – The business portion of the Paris Air Show wound down today, with no new orders and news of a looming strike in Kansas that will soon grind Boeing aircraft production to a halt.
It was a stark contrast to the high pre-show expectations. Some analysts were projecting we’d see between 2,000 and 3,000 new aircraft ordered this week in Paris. By our count, there were 1,084 – a sizable haul no doubt. However, 970 of those came from IndiGo and Air India, who had telegraphed their plans to place those orders before the show, and used Le Bourget as a backdrop for signing the papers. Read more
What’s the Green aviation news at Paris 2023?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 22, 2023, © Leeham News: Every announcement from aircraft deals, OEM updates, or supply chain news now has the words Sustainable/Sustainability injected in every second sentence. It doesn’t matter what the subject is; if it’s about a gas-guzzling way of transporting people at supersonic or even hypersonic speeds or at the other end in an eVTOL which is only as fast as your car on a US highway.
What is the real news about making our air transport system less polluting behind this misuse of the buzzwords? You have to search behind the headlines and the announcements that you know will not turn the dial. Let’s tour the Paris Air Show 2023 and look at the real developments in Sustainability.
Figure 1. First flight of Universal Hydrogen’s DH8-300 with a hydrogen propulsion system on the starboard side. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The waves of Green propulsion solutions with inflated claims have calmed down.
- It’s replaced with operationally usable solutions that deliver tangible emission gains.
Update: Spirit shuts down 737 lines after Machinists Union votes to strike
By Bryan Corliss
June 21, 2023, © Leeham News – Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita have overwhelmingly rejected a proposed four-year contract, setting the stage for a strike.
The contract between Spirit and IAM Local 839 expires at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. However, Spirit said Wednesday night that it would shut down production starting with Thursday’s first shift.
IAM members were not to report to work Thursday, the company said. They will get paid for their regular shifts, but all overtime is canceled.
Local 839 said that 79% of union members who cast ballots voted to reject Spirit’s offer, and 85% voted to authorize a strike.
“Most of our members have concluded the company’s offer is unacceptable,” union officers said.
Spirit leadership said it was “disappointed” by the outcome.
“We know that no one wins in a work stoppage; however, we respect the rights of our represented employees,” it said in a statement. “Despite this setback, we are not distracted from the task at hand. We look forward to continued meetings with IAM leadership.”
In a statement to Wichita-area news outlets, union officers said they would “regroup and begin planning the following steps to bring the company back to the table.”
There was no word Wednesday night whether the two sides had plans to meet.
A strike at Spirit would have significant ramifications throughout the aerospace industry. The company supplies Boeing with 70% of the aerostructures for the 737, and without those fuselages coming by train from Kansas, work at Boeing’s Renton factory will eventually come to a halt, impacting airlines who are expecting jets, as well as other suppliers who provide parts, components and subassemblies for Boeing’s best-selling commercial aircraft. Spirit also builds the nose sections for the 787, 767 and 777.
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The union’s negotiating committee had recommended approval on the Spirit offer, which it received on Friday.
However, the contract seemed in trouble during a Wednesday morning union meeting, prior to the vote. The Wichita Eagle reported that workers made paper airplanes out of the pages of the contract summary, and covered the floor of the arena where they were meeting with them. In addition, Wichita station KWCH-TV published a photo of its website of workers wearing t-shirts emblazoned with the message “That’s a Big No.”
- Contract offered 34% more pay over four years
- Workers had gone 13 years without a new contract
Paris Day Three: Boeing gets small orders; Airbus talks hydrogen and hiring
By Bryan Corliss
June 21, 2023, © Leeham News – After the flurry of news surrounding the blockbuster orders from IndiGo and Air India earlier in the week, Wednesday’s Paris Air Show news was relatively subdued, with Boeing announcing a handful of smaller orders from airlines and leasing companies.
Airbus had announcements of an MOU for a potential widebody order, successful trials of a hydrogen-fuel concept, an update on global hiring – and the winner of a design-the-livery content for its proposed A350F cargo jet.
We’ll need to see a major flurry of orders on Thursday, if we’re to get to the 2,000-plus orders some analysts projected for this year’s air show.
- Indian start up adds 737s
- Air Lease Corp adds 787s
- Airbus halfway to 2023 hiring goal
- First A350F will look like a packing tube
Paris Day Two: Air India finalizes earlier deals; Embraer, ATR announce orders
By Bryan Corliss
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News – While Monday’s news from the Paris Air Show was dominated by the one big Airbus order from Indian carrier IndiGo, Tuesday saw a host of smaller deals announced by OEMs, airlines and leasing companies.
IndiGo rival Air India also announced it had finalized its massive 470-jet order from February, which it had split between Boeing and Airbus.
While there was a significant volume of deals announced Tuesday, in many cases, they were formal announcements of deals that OEMs already were carrying on their order books.
- Air India finalizes Boeing, Airbus orders
- Boeing lands orders from airlines, lessors
- Airbus reveals new orders and buyers in previous deals
- Embraer and ATR announce first deals of show
- Eviation announces LOI for Alices
Boeing, GE optimistic for return to normalcy with China
By Scott Hamilton
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE.
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News: Relations between the US and China remained strained, beginning with the Trump Administration’s trade war initiated in 2017—which continues under the Biden Administration.
The strain has been exacerbated by China’s tilt toward Russia during the Russian-Ukraine war. Except for a brief meeting at this year’s G7 meeting between President Xi and President Biden, there has been little in the way of top-level diplomatic contact until this week. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Xi this week, leading to optimism by Boeing and GE Aerospace that relations between the US and China may be thawing.
During executive media briefings surrounding this week’s Paris Air Show, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal and GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp gave their outlooks about the near-term future.
Pontifications: Only time will tell
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News: Here at the Paris Air Show in what is the first normalized show after the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic, the sense of excitement is almost tangible.
There are predictions by some that when this week is over, more than 2,000 commercial airplane orders could be announced. This would match the heyday of orders in the 2010 decade.
Clearly, there is pent-up demand for new airplanes. Aging aircraft are part of the reason. A push toward more fuel efficient, and therefore more environmentally friendly airplanes is another reason. Full order positions, dating to 2026 for the Boeing 737 and to 2029 for the Airbus A320 is prompting some orders to “get in line.” Even widebody aircraft delivery slots are sold out for the next several years. So is the Airbus A220.
Embraer pulls up the rear with its E-Jet E2. Sales are hampered because the E-Jet family serves a shrinking market, the regional airlines. But Embraer, too, has had a flurry of recent orders.
Airbus and Boeing are talking openly about the next new airplane—Boeing more openly than Airbus. Their confidence is clear.
Alternative energy also takes a front seat at the show. Fuels, batteries, UAMs, eVTOLs, and more vie for attention.
Day One at Paris: Airbus lands record IndiGo deal for 500 A320s
By Bryan Corliss
Monday, June 19, 2023, © Leeham News – Airbus landed a huge but widely expected order for 500 A320s from Indian carrier IndiGo, as the 2023 Paris Air Show got underway Monday.
Analysts had issued pre-show forecasts that orders for as many as 3,000 jets will be announced this week at Le Bourget, as airlines place big bets on a continuing industry recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide.
Despite the lofty projections, the show got off to a slow start, with only a handful of minor announcements until IndiGo’s big splash late in the Paris afternoon.
- IndiGo has nearly 1,000 Airbus jets on order
- Airbus snags A350 order; could add more
- Boeing announces pilot training deal
- De Havilland Canada plans upgraded Twin Otter
Machinists Union members at Spirit to vote on four-year contract this week
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By Bryan Corliss
June 19, 2023, © Leeham News – Roughly 6,000 Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita will vote Wednesday on a proposed four-year contract that would significantly increase pay for hourly workers.
The bargaining committee for IAM Local 839 is recommending that its members accept the deal.
“This is not an easy decision, but it is one that we believe is a good one,” the committee wrote in a letter to members on Friday.
It noted, however, that “the decision to accept or reject this offer is up to the membership,” and added that however the vote goes, the leadership “stands 100%” behind what the members decide.
At least some of those members are vocally urging the deal be rejected.
“How on earth did you think this is an offer we should accept?” one worker wrote on Local 839’s Facebook page. “You have betrayed us.”
The current contract expires just after midnight Friday, June 23.
- Offer on its face is generous
- Comes after 13 years without a new contract
- Industry-wide ramifications should a strike occur