Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus nears finding homes for Air Asia X, Aeroflot widebodies
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers
By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus removed nearly all A330-900s from its backlog to AirAsia X, finally acknowledging what the industry knew for years: this deal was toast, even before the pandemic burnt it.
There are also A350-900s for Aeroflot that now no longer can be delivered.
Aeroflot Airbus A350-900. Source: Airbus.
Despite the widebody marketing being in the dumps, likely for another couple of years, don’t fret about these lost orders. According to market intelligence, Airbus has perhaps three campaigns for the A330neo that may jell within the new few weeks or months.
And the Aeroflot A350s may have a home sooner than anyone would think. Furthermore, some may wind up going to a customer with orders for the Boeing 787 that are in limbo because of the 18-month suspension of deliveries.
Furthermore, Airbus is quietly working to consolidate its dominance in the single-aisle market as the COVID pandemic continues to wind down and Boeing has challenges ramping up its 737 production—and certification of the 737-10 MAX by year-end seems slipping. The ramifications of this slip could be profound.
Summary
- Airbus lining up customers to take Air Asia X canceled A330-900s.
- Aeroflot A350s may find home soon, with a customer awaiting 787 deliveries.
- Boeing’s 737 production rate plans were affected by the China Eastern crash.
- China Eastern crash cause appears trending toward pilot suicide.
Pontifications: Catching up—DHC extends Dash 8 life; 737-10, 777X, A321XLR certifications
Every once in a while, it’s necessary to catch up on this and that….
By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The announcement drew little notice because the topic wasn’t sexy. De Havilland Canada last week said that Norway’s Wideroe Airlines became the first operator to sign up to extend the service life of its Dash 8-100s from 120,000 cycles to 160,000 cycles. The carrier previously contracted to extend the life of the Dash 8 from 80,000 cycles to 120,000 cycles.
“Combined, our two Extended Service Programs add another 30 to 40+ years to the operational life of Dash 8-100 aircraft – that’s double the original service life of the aircraft,” DHC’s Robert Mobilio, Vice President Engineering, said in a statement.
The move is significant because there are no replacement aircraft in the 30-seat category. The market for airplanes this size is very small, and any replacement aircraft would likely be beyond the financial reach of many regional carriers. Extending the life of these airplanes—for an astonishing 30-40 years—is the only viable alternative.
DHC is separately evaluating hybrid technology, with engine maker Pratt & Whitney Canada, to make the Dash 8 series more environmentally friendly. A Dash 8-100 will be used for the hybrid-electric demonstrator.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 14. Propulsion system requirements.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 8, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the architecture of a liquid hydrogen fuel system. We now start looking at the propulsion system of a hydrogen aircraft.
Before discussing how a propulsion system is done, we must understand what power requirements different airliner types have and the importance of these types in the market.
Figure 1. The World Jet market forecast for the next 20 years. Source: JADC.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
War in Ukraine: a local’s perspective
By Judson Rollins
April 6, 2022, © Leeham News: This week, LNA reports on a story outside our usual beat: an account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through the eyes of a local who watched tanks and explosions from her window.
Introduction
Source: Anna Kovalchuk
Three years ago, I spent several months on a consulting engagement in Kyiv, where I made a few local friends. I’ve been fortunate to stay in contact with some of them.
One of those friends is Anna Kovalchuk, a talent acquisition specialist for German pharmaceutical giant Bayer AG. Anna lived until last month in Irpin, Ukraine, a few miles from Antonov International Airport, previously home to several of Antonov Aircraft Company’s An-124 Ruslans and its recently destroyed An-225 Mriya. The airport and nearby suburbs including Irpin were the subject of intense fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces since the invasion began on February 24 until just last week.
Anna and I have been in touch regularly since the war began. I visited her in Gdańsk, Poland, not long after she arrived, where she graciously agreed to share the story of her escape from fighting in her neighbourhood to a new life – ironically, a life she began a week earlier than planned due to the invasion.
Gdańsk is a quiet town of nearly 600,000 on the Baltic Sea. Although it was only a couple of weeks into Russia’s war with Ukraine, I saw few indications of the refugee influx that has overwhelmed so many other cities in Poland. However, there were numerous signs of support for Ukraine, including appeals on business doors for supplies ranging from canned food to clothing to small electronics. Read more
Assessing passenger airline fuel efficiency
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Fuel prices abruptly increased just as travel restrictions started easing after the Covid-19 Omicron wave. The oil price increase accelerated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What would have seemed unthinkable 20 months ago has arrived: fuel prices are back to their 2010-14 levels.
Most airlines are still healings their wounds from the Covid-19 pandemic. Higher fuel prices are an unwelcome feature that will delay their return to profitability if not significantly complicate it.
Considering the above, LNA thought it relevant to assess the fuel efficiency of the major passenger airlines’ fleets.
Summary
- The paradox and challenges of fuel hedging;
- Explaining the fuel efficiency score methodology;
- Twin-aisle, single-aisle, and regional airline rankings.
Pontifications: Returning MAX to pre-grounding rate one key to Boeing’s launch of new airplane
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Returning the 737 MAX production rate to pre-grounding levels, and beyond, is a key element to positioning Boeing to launch a new airplane program.
By Scott Hamilton
So far, Boeing hasn’t provided any guidance to Wall Street aerospace analysts beyond reaching a rate of 31/month this year.
A month ago, LNA reported that hints of new rates came from Boeing suppliers ATI and Spirit Aerosystems during their investor day presentations. The two days were a week apart. ATI is a parts supplier. Spirit builds entire fuselages for the 737. The investor days suggested that Boeing will return to rate 52, the pre-ground MAX rate, by 2024.
LNA has learned more specific information from its sourcing in the supply chain. Boeing notifies the chain when to expect rate breaks to higher or lower rates for planning purposes.
According to LNA’s latest information, Boeing is planning to achieve a rate of 38 by January 2023 and boost it to a rate of 47 by the summer of 2023. Another rate break would boost production to 52 a month early in 1Q24. When regulators grounded the MAX in March 2019, Boeing was geared up to boost production to 57 a month by year-end.
So far, Boeing apparently hasn’t given guidance to its supply chain beyond rate 52. But if the pattern holds up, rate 57 could be in the cards by the end of 2024. Orders for the MAX, especially for the MAX 10, have picked up nicely.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 13. Hydrogen fuel system and APU.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 1, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at how to store hydrogen in an aircraft. We could see the gaseous storage of hydrogen is too heavy other than for demo systems and extreme short-haul. For practical airliners, liquid hydrogen is the solution.
Now we look at what this means for the aircraft fuel system and how to configure a suitable Auxiliary Power Unit, APU.
Figure 1. Typical placement of hydrogen tanks. Source: Leeham Co.
A Boeing 787 Freighter, Airbus response
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March. 31, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week’s article showed that a Boeing 787 freighter based on the -9 variant would be a suitable replacement for the aging 767-300F.
Should Boeing proceed with the aircraft, expect Airbus to launch a competing airplane, it not launch it before the American OEM.
The A330-200F recorded 38 sales as a factory freighter, a disappointing tally. Which aircraft variant could Airbus use as a baseline to develop a more successful 787F competitor?
Summary
- A nuanced view on 767-300F and A330-200F factory sales;
- Need for suitable older-generation aircraft replacement;
- Limitations of A330 P2Fs;
- A potential candidate.
An uneven financial recovery among OEMs
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 28, 2022, © Leeham News: In an article last year, LNA highlighted the significant impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the financials of commercial aviation OEMs. Most recorded sizable losses and charges.
The OEMs entered into a recovery mode in 2021. Airbus intends to aggressively increase its A320neo family production rates to satisfy a strong demand, while Boeing must clear large 737 MAX and 787 backlogs.
The impact of changing production rates takes time to ripple through the supply chain. LNA collected financial information on the big three aircraft manufacturers and seven major commercial aircraft suppliers to assess how quickly they are recovering from the most significant shock since World War II.
Summary
- Significant differences among the three major aircraft OEMs;
- Twin-aisle engine OEMs lagging;
- Varying levels of profitability among OEM suppliers;
- Supply chain challenges to monitor and the war factor.