Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
Pontifications: Returning MAX to pre-grounding rate one key to Boeing’s launch of new airplane
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Returning the 737 MAX production rate to pre-grounding levels, and beyond, is a key element to positioning Boeing to launch a new airplane program.
By Scott Hamilton
So far, Boeing hasn’t provided any guidance to Wall Street aerospace analysts beyond reaching a rate of 31/month this year.
A month ago, LNA reported that hints of new rates came from Boeing suppliers ATI and Spirit Aerosystems during their investor day presentations. The two days were a week apart. ATI is a parts supplier. Spirit builds entire fuselages for the 737. The investor days suggested that Boeing will return to rate 52, the pre-ground MAX rate, by 2024.
LNA has learned more specific information from its sourcing in the supply chain. Boeing notifies the chain when to expect rate breaks to higher or lower rates for planning purposes.
According to LNA’s latest information, Boeing is planning to achieve a rate of 38 by January 2023 and boost it to a rate of 47 by the summer of 2023. Another rate break would boost production to 52 a month early in 1Q24. When regulators grounded the MAX in March 2019, Boeing was geared up to boost production to 57 a month by year-end.
So far, Boeing apparently hasn’t given guidance to its supply chain beyond rate 52. But if the pattern holds up, rate 57 could be in the cards by the end of 2024. Orders for the MAX, especially for the MAX 10, have picked up nicely.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 12. Hydrogen storage.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the energy density by mass and volume for hydrogen and regular Jet fuel (Kerosene), Figure 1.
With this information, we now look at how these fuels can be stored in an aircraft.
Figure 1. The Volume and Mass densities of fuels. Source: Boeing.
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A Boeing 787 freighter, which model and how good? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the creation of a Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767-300F, which is running into emission rule problems in 2027.
After looking at what 787 variant makes for the best freighter, we now compare the economics of the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Figure 1. The 767-300F freighter (top) and its possible replacements: 787-8F (middle) and 787-9F (bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- When a Boeing 787 freighter arrives at the decade’s end, its economics will change the freighter market’s dynamics.
Boeing sees incumbency as advantage in coming air force tanker procurement
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- The interview with Lockheed Martin appeared Jan. 30.
By Scott Hamilton
KC-46A. Source: Boeing.
March 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) plans to submit a proposal for the US Air Force’s KC-Y aerial refueling tanker procurement. So does Boeing. LMCO joined with Airbus and will offer a tanker based on the existing Airbus A330 MRTT (Multi-Role Tanker Transport). Boeing will offer a follow-on purchase of the incumbent KC-46A, based on the 767-200ER.
These two aircraft faced off in the KC-X competition. Airbus initially teamed with Northrop Grumman and was awarded the contract. Boeing protested the award on procurement procedural grounds and prevailed. Northrop dropped out of the recompete, which Boeing won in 2011.
The two aircraft will be offered again, but this time, one party doesn’t view the aircraft as competitive. LMCO sees the Airbus airplane, which it brands the LMXT, as complementary to rather than competitive to the KC-46A. Lockheed explains why here.
Boeing, on the other hand, isn’t convinced the USAF will even seek a competitive bid—or that LMCO’s belief that the service wants a larger airplane than the KC-46A to fill a “gap” is correct.
Mike Hafer, senior manager of KC-46A Business Development, explains why.
Pontifications: From the aviation perspective, there’s something in China to watch
March 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Eyes are focused on Ukraine and the Russian War. In our corner of the world, commercial aviation, the stakeholders follow the fallout from the war: sanctions placed on Russia which affect overflights, supply chains, oil to Europe (fuel), and Russia’s confiscation of about $10bn worth of airliners from Western lessors and lenders.
By Scott Hamilton
But there is another drama playing out on the other side of the world, too. This one involves China and one of its commercial aviation companies, AVIC.
AVIC is a major aerospace company in China. It also has a variety of none-aerospace companies. It’s one of these that caught our eye last week.
The Wall Street Journal on March 14 reported that AVIC subsidiaries involved in solar energy filed for bankruptcy to avoid an $85m judgment after allegedly absconding with intellectual property from two US companies. The firm had to settle for 30 cents on the dollar.
It’s another example of China companies simply ignoring international IP laws.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which variant and how good?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Monday, we started a series of articles discussing a possible Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767 freighter, one of Boeing’s most-produced models, with over 200 factory freighters delivered.
We use our Airliner Performance Model to understand which 787 variant would be most suitable as a base for a freighter and what performance it would have.
Figure 1. Would a 767-300F replacement (top) be a 787-8F (middle) or 787-9F (bottom)? Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- Boeing can build a very competitive freighter on the 787 base.
- We analyze which of the different 787 models is the most suitable and predict payload, range, and economics.
Pontifications: The soup du jour
March 14, 2022, © Leeham News: You might call it the soup du jour.
By Scott Hamilton
EcoAviation is all over the place at aviation conferences these days. It was a key topic at last October’s Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Likewise at last month’s annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA). EcoAviation also was an element of the Speed News conference in Los Angeles early this month and at another event the following week. Investor Day events now routinely include ecoAviation discussion.
This is all well and good, but at last, some key members of the industry are putting caution and realism to the pie-in-the-sky stuff that is sucking up investment like the Dot Com era a few decades ago. Only a few ideas and technologies will be successful.
The large Twin-Aisle replacements
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 10, 2022, © Leeham News: We looked into the replacement market for the large twin-aisles and freighters in our February 28th article.
The obvious replacements for the market’s large Twin-Ailes are Airbus’ A350-1000, and Boeing’s 777-9, replacing 747s and A380s but more often 777-300ERs.
We compare the 777-300ER to the A350-1000 and 777-9 to understand the driving forces behind such replacements.
Summary
- The choice between Airbus’ A350-1000 and Boeing’s 777-9 as the replacement for the market’s large aircraft will be decided by route passenger volumes and commonality more than any difference in the operating economics of the aircraft.
Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.
By Scott Hamilton
“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.
Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.
Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)