Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
An Update on Airbus, Boeing Orders at Risk
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and delays in the re-certification of the 737 MAX, Boeing lost a large number of 737 MAX orders in 2020. The majority of the cancellations were flagged as ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplane’s website.
Since the Federal Aviaton Administraton lifted the 737 MAX grounding in November, the program has accumulated new orders from longtime Boeing customers, notably Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed in July and November last year Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We perform an update of this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs.
Summary
- Difference between LNA and Boeing methodology
- Adjustments exacerbate traditional OEM strengths and weaknesses;
- An upcoming order book clean-up for older programs;
- Two programs with material adjustments;
- Some twin-aisle variants are less popular than others.
Pontifications: A330ceo P2F picks up steam
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: Freighter conversions for the Airbus A330ceo are picking up steam as the inventory jumps following the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are 20 A330s that have been converted: 13 -300s and seven -200s. Package carrier DHL converted eight -300s, the most of any operator. It has contracts to convert 20 more, reports Cargo Facts.
The combined 40 P2Fs exceeds the number of A330-200Fs that was built fresh off the factory line—38.
Most observers consider the new A330-200F program a failure, although this may be a narrow view. While commercial sales were disappointing, the -200F was a companion program to the A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport. There are so far 61 orders for the MRTT; as of last month, 48 were delivered. Looking at this as one program off the same platform, this means there were 99 orders to date.
Airbus and Lockheed Martin have joined to bid on the US Air Force contract for between 140-160 refueling tankers in the KC-Y competition that begins shortly. Boeing will offer the KC-46A, based on the 767-200ER platform. Lockheed last week announced it will rebrand the MRTT the LMXT.
HOTR: Lockheed Martin’s LMXT rebranding has lots of competition
By the Leeham News Team
Aug. 12, 2021, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin’s rebranding of the Airbus A330 MRTT aerial refueling tanker has some competition that already uses the name: LMXT.
The UK band LMXT.
LNA’s background includes branding. Other than the obvious “LM” means Lockheed Martin, we couldn’t see where “XT” comes from.
“XT” is on a lot of cars. The full acronym is on a warehouse management system, solar storage, a solar tube battery and a car charger.
A government in Maryland uses it as shorthand for Legacy Mixed-Use Transit Oriented Zone. It’s used for something called Lively Middleclass Xenial Tolerant (we can’t figure this one out.)
But our favorite is the acronym stands for Little Mix Tribute Rock Band, a UK group.
LNA can’t wait to see the band’s logo show up as nose art on the airplane formerly known as the A330 MRTT.
The P2F freighters, 767-300ER versus A330-200 or -300?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 12, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at Cargo companies operating early Boeing 767-200 freighters that look at a replacement for these. Shall it be a 767-300ER or an Airbus A330-200 or -300 conversion freighter?
We use our performance model to understand their characteristics and operational efficiencies.
A Boeing 767 is converted to a freighter. Source: IAI Bedek.
Summary
- Both the 767-300ER and A330-200/-300 early passenger models will provide ample feed-stock for freighters going forward, as these reach sunset age and can be acquired for the low cost required for a P2F freighter.
- Which of these freighters are suitable for what type of freight? And what is their efficiency in such operations? We compare them using our performance model.
Exclusive: Airbus discusses A321F new-build program with customers
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 9, 2021, © Leeham News: Call it Airbus’s attack on Boeing’s final frontier.
After an embarrassing failure with the new-build A330-200F and an ill-conceived A380F, Airbus last month launched the A350F.
Market sources tell LNA this time, Airbus may have a winner. The market sources also tell LNA Boeing, for once, is actually worried about a proposed Airbus freighter airplane.
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When announcing the program launch, Airbus didn’t reveal customers. Nor did officials reveal specifications, beyond saying payload will be “in excess of 90 tons.” But information obtained by LNA and analysis by our Bjorn Fehrm revealed the fundamentals in previous paywall articles. And, we know potential customers have seen the specifications under Non-Disclosure Agreements.
Airbus offers the A321P2F based on the A321ceo. It’s also discussing the possibility of a new A321neo-based, new-build freighter. Photo: Airbus.
It’s also unlikely the Airbus Board would have authorized the program launch without customers ready to go. LNA believes Airbus needed 50 orders to launch the program. With an installed base of combination carriers already operating the A350, these would be target launch customers.
Now, LNA can reveal, Airbus is talking with key customers about potentially offering a new-build A321neo freighter.
Pontifications: A deeper hole for the Boeing 737 MAX market share
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 9, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 737 MAX market share vs Airbus is in a deeper hole than may be generally realized.
Aviation Week last week complied a list of the top seven low-cost carrier airlines in Asia with orders for 90 or more A320s or 737 family members.
The data illustrates just how deep a hole Boeing is in.
LNA created market-share pie charts based on the numbers above to better illustrate the challenge. It’s not a pretty picture for Boeing.
The Airbus A350F versus Boeing’s 777-XF.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Two weeks ago we compared the launched Airbus A350 freighter with Boeing’s in-service 777F. We found the 777F is a freighter with a very high payload capability, but it faces an ICAO emission and noise ax by 2028, should the present engines be kept.
Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun recently said a freighter version of the 777X might replace the 777F. With seven years to 2028, a development decision for a 777-XF is then imminent. We use our performance model to look at how an A350F and 777-XF would compare.
Summary
- A new Boeing 777-XF freighter, based on the 777-8 (picture), has to equal or beat an Airbus A350 freighter both on payload and economics.
- Beating an A350F on capacity and payload is straightforward, the 777-8 is the larger aircraft. On operating costs, it’s a tighter race.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the A350F and the Impact on Boeing
Aug. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus last week launched the A350 freighter program. This is the first real challenge to Boeing’s decades-long dominance in the freighter market that poses a real threat.
LNA wrote on April 6 that Boeing’s dominance was under threat. The A350F makes this a reality, along with the ICAO emission standards that take effect in 2027.
Boeing CEO David Calhoun said last week he’s “confident” the long-delayed 777-XF might be the next program launched.
In today’s 10 Minutes About, we discuss these and other topics.
Boeing’s apparent shifting product strategy
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing last week reiterated it believes the 777-9 will be certified and delivered in late 2023. CEO David Calhoun also said, “I’m confident that might be the next of our programs.”
Let’s set aside for the moment whether the EIS prediction becomes reality and assume Boeing will be correct. Let’s assume the 777-XF will be the next program launched. The larger question then becomes, what does this mean for the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA)? And what are the implications for Airbus?
Summary
- The NBA launch seems unlikely in 2022; 2023 may be the target.
- But with the 777-XF moving up in priorities, will the NBA continue to slide to the right?
- What is the Airbus response to an NBA?
- Or, should Airbus move first to further preempt the NBA?
Pontifications: Biden’s new “Buy American” policy may hit Lockheed Martin-Airbus plans to compete in KC-Y tanker bid
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: A move by the Biden Administration may have unintended consequences in the KC-Y Bridge Tanker procurement by the US Air Force.
The Bridge Tanker is the Air Force’s second round to replace the aging Boeing KC-135 fleet. Between 140-160 airplanes will be purchased under KC-Y. The Air Force awarded a contract to Boeing in the previous KC-X procurement for 179 tankers based on the 767-200ER platform.
President Joe Biden announced last week that the US will adopt a rule under its Buy American policy that American content must be increased from 55% to 60% immediately and ultimately 75%.
If adopted, the rule appears to all but preclude an expected proposal by a partnership between Lockheed Martin and Airbus (LMA) to offer the KC-330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT). This is based on the A330-200 platform.
Lockheed Martin did not respond to a request for comment.