Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
Suppliers remain hunkered down as pandemic recovery may stall
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
March 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Aerospace suppliers continue to struggle even as passenger airlines begin to gingerly place new aircraft orders and 
Boeing resumes production of the 737 MAX.
Airbus continues to produce the A320, A330 and A350 at lower production rates than the pre-pandemic era. Boeing is at low-rate production for the 737 MAX, after a 20-month grounding. The 777 is down to 2/mo and the 787 goes to 5/mo this month. At least two aerospace analysts on Wall Street think the 787 rate could come down further.
Airbus and Boeing each received a handful of orders so far this year.
But suppliers continue to struggle.
Summary
- Airbus, Boeing continue to extend payments.
- Smaller suppliers seek bankruptcies.
- Larger suppliers remain in “hunker down” mode.
HOTR: Alaska begins service with 737 MAX
- Alaska likely to cancel A320neo order. Details below.
By the Leeham News Team
March 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Alaska Airlines today launched its first service with the 737 MAX.
The carrier’s first flight was flight AS 482 from Seattle to San Diego, operated with a 737-9.
Alaska is the fourth US airline to operate the MAX. It is the third to use it in service since the type was recertified in November by the Federal Aviation Administration. American and United airlines returned their MAXes to service earlier. Southwest Airlines followed later this month. The Seattle-based airline hadn’t taken delivery of the MAX before the March 13, 2019 grounding.
Alaska is the second carrier to place a follow-on order for the MAX, after Ryanair, following recertification by the FAA. The MAX 9 will replace Alaska’s remaining Airbus A319/320ceos by 2024. Alaska continues to operate 10 Airbus A321neos and still has 30 A320neos on order, all from its acquisition of Virgin America in December 2016. In its annual 10K filing, Feb. 26, with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Alaska said, “At this time, we do not expect to take delivery of these 30 Airbus aircraft.” Alaska disclosed that $15m in deposits for the A320neo order, made by Virgin America, are “not likely to be recoverable.”
Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-9. Source: Woody’s Aeroimages.
The carrier originally ordered the 737-8. Officials later swapped these orders for the larger MAX 9. Alaska’s 737-900ERs are configured with 178 seats compared with the 737-800’s 159 seats. The advertised range of the MAX 9 is 3,550 statute miles with one auxiliary fuel tank. The tank adds about 270 miles to the range of the base specification.
Boeing doesn’t break out the sales of the MAX sub-types. There are an estimated 250-300 orders for the MAX 9, a “tweener” airplane between the MAX 8 and MAX 10.
Boeing’s Ability to Finance the Next Airliner
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 1, 2021, © Leeham News: The combination of the 737 MAX crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic led Boeing to lose $12.5bn over the 2019-2020 period. Boeing Commercial Aviation (BCA) lost $20.5bn during those two years, compared with a $7.8bn operating profit in 2018. Revenues at the division fell from $60.7bn in 2018 to $16.2bn in 2020.
The severe difficulties at BCA led Boeing to issue record amounts of debt. Net debt (subtracting cash and short-term investments) increased from $5.2bn to $38bn between the end of 2018 and 2020. Boeing issued another $9bn in debt in early February to refinance a portion of this debt.
As the commercial aviation ecosystem recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing’s financial situation should improve. However, the OEM will have to deal with the sizable debt load accumulated during the twin 737 MAX and COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
LNA analyzes Boeing’s financial situation, including the OEM’s ability to finance a future aircraft program.
Summary
- A strained balance sheet;
- Two healthy products and a weak one;
- Post COVID-19 recovery prospects for BCA;
- Hard choices to finance a new aircraft program.
Pontifications: Legislature weighs overdue actions for aerospace
March 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Two bills before the Washington State Legislature intend to create long-term strategic plans to grow the state’s advanced manufacturing sector in general – and the space industry in particular.
By Bryan Corliss
To this we say yes, hell yes and amen.
North America’s largest aerospace cluster has lurched from crisis to crisis over the past 20 years, with elected officials scrambling to meet Boeing’s demands for tax, workforce and labor concessions.
And – much to our dismay – for most of the past two decades, leadership in the state Capitol of Olympia has been content to cobble together ad hoc responses with only the faintest lip service toward any kind of long-range strategic planning for future industry needs.
These bills – Substitute House Bill 1170 and Substitute House Bill 1190 – have the potential to change all of that.
- Bills contain a lot of what we’ve long advocated
- Manufacturing bill sets ambitious goals for state
- Space bill seeks to boost – and capture – fast-growing sector
- Taxes aren’t on the table — yet
Read more
The A350, Part 7: The A350-900ULR versus 777-200LR/A340-500
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the long rangers of the Airbus A350, Boeing 777, and Airbus A340 families.
The A340-500 and the 777-200LR are a generation older than the A350-900ULR. We compare their performance on the world’s most challenging route, Singapore to New York, to find out how much Singapore Airlines gains by changing from the A340-500 to the A350-900ULR.
Summary
- The A350-900ULR is unique among the Ultra Long Range aircraft by being a lightly changed variant of the standard A350-900.
- By adopting the A350-1000 tank filling levels, the aircraft has enough fuel to fly up to 20 hours with a long-range payload.
- Should the airline change its mind, the A350-900ULR can convert back to a standard A350-900.
- With modern technology, it outclasses the economics of the 777-200LR and A340-500.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Boeing Board of Directors
Feb. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, Boeing announced that two members of the Board—Arthur Collins and Susan Schwab—will retire at the end of their terms in April. No replacements have been named yet.
Earlier, Ambassador Nikki Haley resigned over policy differences related to the COVID crisis CARES act. Haley was not replaced. More recently Caroline Kennedy resigned from the Board. She was replaced by the former CEO of the accounting firm KMPG.
Boeing’s 12-member Board is heavy on representatives of the defense and finance industries. It has ex- politicians, pharmaceutical and communications members. But other than Lawrence Kellner, who is from the airline industry, there is nobody representing commercial aviation manufacturing, design, engineering or production.
LNA’s podcast today takes a look at these facts and Boeing’s Board of Directors.
Pontifications: For Boeing, the future is a new airplane, not the status quo
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Tunnel-vision pundits, analysts, and even some experts say Boeing shouldn’t launch a new airplane program within the next few years.
Why? They say doing so will cannibalize the 737 MAX 9 and MAX 10. They say it will undermine sales of the entire MAX family.
I say, poppycock.
Boeing has a MAX problem. It’s not the grounding, although the issues from this are obvious. LNA has written about this ad nauseam, but it’s necessary to remind these new airplane-naysayers. The MAX 7 is a sales dud. The MAX 9 isn’t far behind. And the MAX 10 is uncompetitive with the Airbus A321neo family.
The only MAX that has a bright future is the MAX 8. Boeing can’t rely on the MAX 8 for its future in the 125-240 seat sector.
Differentiation in the marketplace and the time for the open rotor
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Feb. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Airliners are now so efficient, one challenge facing Airbus and Boeing in competing is overcoming the laws of diminishing returns.
The time may finally have come for an Open Rotor airliner. Source: Safran.
LNA described this challenge Feb. 8. Additionally, airport infrastructure erects a vast number of design roadblocks.
We focused on the creation of the 737 replacement and how difficult it will be to make meaningful performance upgrades to the economics of the vehicle. We outlined the next battle in product differentiation most likely will occur in optimizing non-flying time operations, focusing on ground operations as the next efficiency battleground. Since then, it was reported that Boeing indicated that a new aircraft sized between the 737 and the 767/NMA was a front runner in their future planning.
Summary
- NMA Lite needed for 737-9/10 to 787-8 sector.
- Replacement for 737-7 and 737-8 best suited for Open Rotor design.
- What an Open Rotor plane might look like
Built for Mars
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 17, 2021, © Leeham News: Ever since watching the movie and reading the book, The Martian, I’ve been fascinated about all things Mars.
The Mars rover Perseverance under development at the Jet Propulsion Lab. Source: National Geographic.
Previous movies were contrived sci-fi trash. The Martian was fiction, to be sure, but it was science-based. A NASA official told me the agency cooperated with the book author and the movie producers. And John Shannon, the lead of Boeing’s giant SLS launcher for a Mars mission, also told me the book and movie were based on science.
NASA and Boeing in 2016 outlined some of the challenges in this powerpoint.
Built for Mars is a 90 minute chronicle of NASA’s current mission to Mars. The Perseverance rover is the first of three missions over 10 years to return samples from Mars to Earth for scientific study. Produced by National Geographic and premiering Feb. 18, the challenges of putting together this mission are immense.
Pontifications: The New Air Force One: Flying Fortress
Feb. 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Air Force One is, after the national flag, the most recognizable and prestigious symbol of the United States.
By Scott Hamilton
It’s also shrouded in mystery.
A new National Geographic special premiering Feb. 15 lifts the veil, at least partially.
NatGeo was granted unprecedented access to the development of the new airplanes, two Boeing 747-8s, that will replace the 30-year old 747-200s that serve as Air Force One.