Airbus-C Series deal closes July 1; presents challenges for Boeing, Embraer

June 8, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus assumes its 50.01% majority stake in the Bombardier C Series program July 1, the two companies announced today.

The company is called C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.

The CS100 and CS300 may be renamed the A210 and A230, according to a previous press report.

A C Series Final Assembly Line will be constructed in Mobile (AL), next to the Airbus A320 FAL, to serve the US market.

Airbus and Bombardier will speak at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL). The C Series final assembly line will be an extension of the A320 FAL.

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Airbus-C Series deal to close July 1

  • Note: A press conference follows today. Here is the press release issued by Airbus and Bombardier.

Airbus, Bombardier and Investissement Québec agree C Series Partnership closing effective July 1, 2018

  • Airbus to acquire majority stake in the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, effective July 1, 2018
  • All regulatory approvals required for the closing of the transaction have been obtained
  • Partnership head office, leadership team and primary final assembly line located in Mirabel, Québec (representing some 2,200 employees and subcontractors), with the support of the C Series global supply chain
  • Partnership brings together two complementary product lines, with 100-150 seat market segment projected to represent 6,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years
  • Addition of Airbus’ global reach to create significant value for C Series’ customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders and communities
  • Significant C Series production efficiencies anticipated by leveraging Airbus’ production ramp-up expertise
  • Growing market for C Series to support second Final Assembly Line in Alabama, serving U.S. customers

Bombardier will talk about the new C Series Final Assembly line planned for Mobile (AL) next to the Airbus A320 FAL during the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 8

By Bjorn Fehrm.

June 1, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner, we discussed the how the Flight Management System (FMS) is the part which calls the shots in a high-end autopilot (or Automatic Flight Control System, AFCS, as it’s called in high-end business jets and airliners).

Now we will dig deeper into what happens once the FMS has figured out how we shall follow a route.

Figure 1. The Automatic Flight Control System (AFCS) panel of the CSeries (surrounded with red). Source: Bombardier. Read more

Countdown to Airbus-CSeries deal: boost needed to backlog

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Introduction

May 28, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier and Airbus may clear regulatory approvals next month, allowing for consummation of the latter’s acquisition of 50.01% of the CSeries program.

If all works, this will be well in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins July 15. Industry eyes will be on the FAS to see what orders might be announced by Airbus for the CSeries, which reportedly may be renamed the A210 and A230 for the CS100 and CS300 respectively.

As May fades to June, Bombardier has beefed up its skyline quality, but there are some orders that are in doubt, including a big one for 40 airplanes.

Summary
  • No sales since Dubai Air Show.
  • Airbus-CSeries deal expected to close next month.
  • Three questionable orders affect nearly 20% of backlog.
  • Farnborough Air Show will be keen to watch for news.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 7

By Bjorn Fehrm

May 25, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we discussed the autopilots one finds in Airliners and high-end Business jets. We looked at how the autopilot was part of the larger Automatic Flight Control System (AFCS) in Bombardier’s CSeries.

To understand how such an advanced system works, we need to go through the different parts of the system and understand their role when the aircraft is flown by the autopilot. We will start with the Flight Management System (FMS) this week.

Figure 1. The flight deck part of a classical FMS (Flight Management System). Source: Esterline.

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Embraer skyline has serious challenges

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Introduction

May 21, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing and Embraer continue merger discussions for the latter’s commercial airplanes unit, the EJet skyline has some serious challenges.

The only order for the E175-E2 is a conditional sale.

Lessors account for half the orders of the E195-E2 and most of the E190-E2 deals.

More than half the orders for the E190-E1 may be canceled.

The data, from the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker, is as of April 15 and doesn’t include options, MOUs or LOIs. The firm order from American Airlines, for 15 E175-E1s, announced after this date, has been added by LNC.

Summary
  • Slow sales hamper the backlog.
  • The E2 hasn’t taken off as expected.
  • The E175-E1 remains the staple of the six-member family.
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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 6

By Bjorn Fehrm.

May 18, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we discussed the autopilots one finds in Turboprops and entry-level Business jets. Our example was the autopilot for the Garmin G1000 integrated flight deck.

Now we will step up to the airliner level. We will look at the autopilot and its supporting avionics for the Bombardier CSeries. This is a modern, state of the art system, and a good example of the autopilots for an Airliner or top of the line Business jet.

Figure 1. The CSeries flight deck. I have marked the autopilot panel with a red border. Source: Bombardier.

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Bombardier refocuses the CRJ

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

May 10, 2018, © Leeham News: American Airlines last week ordered 30 additional regional jets.  Of these, 15 were the Embraer E175. No surprise there. It’s the traveler’s favourite and the market leader among US regional jets. But American Airlines also ordered the same number of Bombardier CRJ900. Why? Isn’t it a bit dated?

There are good reasons for this order and Bombardier sees a new spring for the trusted regional. We use our performance model to understand why.

Summary:
  • The CRJ900 is still a good choice for the US Scope Clause regulated regional jet market.
  • Is strong economics makes it a favourite with the airline’s bean counters.
  • In addition, it has the longest cabin, enabling large First-class and Premium economy sections.
  • With programmed updates, it will be competitive for years to come.

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Single-aisle production on track for 1,800/yr

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Introduction

May 7, 2018, © Leeham News: Single aisle airliner production rates are on a track to hit 1,800 per year by 2022, a new analysis by LNC concludes.

This is for aircraft of 100 seats or more. Therefore, this includes the Bombardier CS100 and its competitors the Embraer E190/195 E1/E2 at the smallest end of the 100-240-seat single-aisle markets.

The dominating companies are, of course, Airbus and Boeing. Airbus plans to increase rates of its A320 family next year to 63/mo; Boeing is going to 57/mo for the 737. Both companies are studying increasing rates to 70/mo, a figure LNC believes can be sustained through at least 2025.

Bombardier plans to go to rate 10 for its C Series, a figure that may have been difficult to achieve before BBD sold 50.01% of the program to Airbus. The deal is expected to close before the Farnborough Air Show.

For purposes of this analysis, LNC assumes the deal goes through but for identification carves out C Series as a stand-alone airplane.

COMAC and Irkut are included in the forecast.

Summary
  • A320 backlogs extend through the next decade in a greater number than Boeing’s 737.
  • 737 backlogs extend through the next decade, but many operators have yet to order the MAX to fully replace retiring 737 NGs.
  • Airbus acquisition of control of C Series program gives it a boost.
  • Embraer is a niche player in the small end of the market—for now.
  • COMAC and Irkut present little near-term threat to Airbus and Boeing.

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Pontifications: Boeing case against Airbus at WTO: appeal decision due this month

By Scott Hamilton

May 7, 2018, © Leeham News: The World Trade Organization resumes action in the European Union appeal of an adverse ruling in the Airbus illegal subsidies case filed by the US years ago, at Boeing’s behest.

This column appears at the start of the business day in Europe, before the WTO opens its hearing today. By the time the US wakes up in New York for business, today’s hearing will be over. The WTO announced today’s hearing a week ago and initially a decision on the appeal was expected, but it may not come until later this week or next.

Based on history, the WTO will probably affirm earlier decisions that Airbus benefited from illegal subsidies and hasn’t yet cured the violations (ie, repaid the subsidies). Just how sweeping this will be is a matter of speculation.

Throughout the long-running dispute, now in its 14th year, Airbus has been on the losing end of the US complaint at least on some level. The European company has won on some issues and lost on others, but the WTO found that Airbus received subsidies from EU states that violate WTO rules.

The spin from Airbus and Boeing will be along historically predictable lines.

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