Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
PNAA Conference Day 1: Aerospace Clusters
- Feb. 9, 2016: Today is the first of three days of conference meetings organized by
the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA), in Lynnwood (WA). We’re providing live reporting throughout the three days.
Aerospace clusters are evolving throughout the world, said Kevin Michael, vice president of ICF International.
California is on the decline. Two new clusters on the rise are Mexico and the Southeastern US. The Netherlands and Singapore are successful, long-term clusters.
California was the premier aerospace cluster for decades, but its demise began when Lockheed chose Georgia as the location to build the C-130. The founding of Airbus was not good news for SoCal, and neither was the end of the Cold War. The acquisition of McDonnell Douglas by Boeing in 1997 further precipitated the decline of SoCal.
A320 FAL “good for US aerospace,” says Airbus
Sept. 16, 2015, © Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): The opening of the Airbus A320 Final Assembly Line here
achieves a major set of goals set by the company 10 years ago for its own strategic purposes, but officials are also mindful of the larger impact on US aerospace.
David L. Williams, VP Procurement, Airbus Americas. Photo via Google images.
Top executives point out that the Mobile plant reestablished a second commercial aviation assembly site in the US since the last MD-11s and MD-95s rolled out of the former McDonnell Douglas plant in Long Beach (CA) after its acquisition by The Boeing Co in 1997. Boeing continued production of the MD-11 until the end of 2000 (with deliveries occurring in 1Q2001). The last MD-95, renamed the Boeing 717, was produced in 2006. There were 200 MD-11s and 156 717s produced.
With nearly 10 years elapsing between that last 717 and the first A321ceo coming out of Mobile, Airbus officials say the creation of the FAL is not only good for Airbus and Alabama, it’s good for US aerospace.
Boeing’s dedicated freighters views an improving market
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb. 22, 2015: An improving global freight market gives Boeing hope that air cargo demand will support the production of two new main-deck freighters a month for years to come. Boeing is struggling to sell 747-8Fs to keep the 747 line alive and needs to sell the 777F to support its goal of maintaining the current 777 production rate of 100/yr through the transition in 2020 to the new 777X.
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing included the projection as a passing reference in remarks Feb. 11 to the 14th Annual Conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA). The following week we spoke at length with Tom Crabtree, Boeing’s Regional Director, Airline Market Analysis, Marketing & Business Development, about the long-suffering global cargo market and Boeing’s forecast for recovery.
Summary
- Increasing reliance on belly capacity doesn’t negate need for large main deck freighters, Boeing says.
- Boeing sees need for two new-build, large freighters per month.
- Accepting Boeing’s demand forecast, Leeham Co. sees another production rate cut for the 747-8.
Odds and Ends: 737 MAX order breakdown; Airbus to top Boeing; Embraer to PNAA event
Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view. Source: Boeing.
Jan. 6, 2015: 737 MAX Orders: Boeing has broken down the 737 MAX orders for the entire program in response to our inquiry. The 737-8 has captured 87% of the program orders since launch in 2011. The MAX 8 includes the 100 MAX 200 orders for the high density version, placed by Ryanair last year. The MAX 9 has 11% and the MAX 7 just 2% (figures are rounded).
Airbus to top Boeing: It’s not really a surprise, because it seems to happen just about every year. Reuters is reporting that Airbus will top Boeing in gross and net orders when it reports its 2014 performance next week.
Embraer to PNAA: Embraer’s chief commercial officer, John Slattery, will speak at the Feb. 10-12 conference for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance. EMB has presented previously but this is the first time Slattery is joining the conference. Click on the banner ad above to go directly to the conference website.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501, PNAA Conference, FWIW
Jan. 2, 2014: AirAsia 8501: Our friend Geoff Thomas has an interesting commentary about the AirAsia 8501 story. Also, an Airbus A330 pilot for a major US airline, offered these observations about QZ8501. A Linkedin profile suggests this pilot flies for Delta Air Lines.
We are now beginning to see more and more “conclusions” about what happened to 8501 from people who are being described as “experts.” Some of these are people we’ve never heard of, although this isn’t necessarily indicative that they don’t know what they are talking about–but we don’t think they do.
Since the airplane hasn’t been confirmed as found (searchers only think they’ve found it, but bad weather and bad seas have, at this writing, prevented confirmation), nor have the black boxes been recovered, the conclusions being set forth are interesting theories but that’s all they are.
Most of these possibilities are precisely what we’ve reported as areas of investigation and questions to be asked and answered. They way these “experts” are positioning possibilities is actually pretty embarrassing.
Treat these reports with the skepticism they deserve.
One thing we are surprised at: how quickly one of the few victims recovered has been buried. We thought an autopsy would take longer, and an autopsy would be the first clear indication of what happened: whether the victims died by blunt force trauma (i.e, impact with the water) or from decompression (suggesting an inflight fuselage rupture or mid-air break up).
Sixteen bodies are now reported to have been recovered (at 8:30pm PST Jan. 1).
Aviation conferences this month
There are two aviation conferences in Washington State this month.
The first is from the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance October 8. The PNAA Space & Security conference, a one day event, will be at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field in Seattle. The conference is quite timely, considering Boeing just announced job transfers out of Puget Sound from its Defense unit. Two local defense programs that remain, the P-8A Poseidon (based on the 737) and the KC-46A (based on the 767) are on the program for updates.
The British American Business Council (Northwest), or BABC, holds a one day Aerospace Conference, also at the Museum of Flight, on October 28. Airbus Americas will discuss the A-Series Neo programs. NASA will discuss future airplanes, with composites, interiors and other materials also on the agenda.
Repost: Pratt & Whitney GTF program update at PNAA conference, plus Q&A PW, RR and GE
Due to technical issues we don’t begin to understand, the PW GTF engine program update didn’t display the videos, only the links. We are re-posting to correct the situation because we couldn’t fix it within the original post.
Bob Saia, VP of Next Generation Engine development at Pratt & Whitney, provides a program update of the Geared Turbo Fan engine and its prospect of growing into a “Big Engine” serving the twin-aisle market. He appeared at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance 2014 conference in the Seattle area last week.
.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYUUtVEKhIs]
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02RgF1So-X4
Questions and Answers
The following videos are questions and answers of the representatives of the Big Three engine manufacturers. Sound is soft on these two videos; best to use headphones.
.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nArLnhsMraE]
.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Wtqr4FavP0]
Odds and Ends: 777X site; A380 reconfiguration; 777 flashback; PNAA’s 13th annual conference; A350; MC-21
Build 777X “where it makes the most sense:” A Boeing executive, in a CNBC interview, said the 777X would be built “where it makes the most sense.”
CNBC writes that Shephard Hill, president of Boeing International, said, “Honestly, we’re looking within the United States at this point because of the large infrastructure we have there. But again, with the mandate to do it on time, to do it in a quality way, that will drive the decision.”
Meanwhile, Alabama officials revealed they talked with Boeing about locating “some [777X] work” at Boeing’s Huntsville operation. Stories are here and here.
A380 reconfiguration: After our post concerning the secondary market of the Airbus A380 and a figure cited by a lessor that it could cost as much as $20m to reconfigure the airplane (assuming all bells and whistles), we received two emails from readers giving a different perspective.
One wrote that Airbus took the Emirates Airlines specification, which is not as customized as perceived, and outlined three scenarios for reconfiguration.
- Simply change the cabin colors: $600,000 from Airbus and $500,000 for Buyer Furnished Equipment (BFE).
- Change three class to two class, with only the upper deck changing: $3.6m in Airbus costs, $1.6m for BFE.
- High-density, all Y-class, both decks: $4.3m for Airbus costs, $3.5m for BFE.
Another reader wrote that the $20m figure is correct if all existing cabin stuff is tossed and the reconfiguration starts from scratch, but seats and other equipment could be sold to reduce the cost. Going one class, this reader wrote, had a price of between $8m-$10m (slightly higher than that reported by the first reader) and a two class configuration would cost about $5m, roughly the same as noted above.
Flashback on 777 successor: Jon Ostrower, when he was with Flight Global, Tweeted out a flashback down memory lane when we did a podcast with him six years ago, talking about a Boeing 777 successor. We looked pretty smart back then, as it turns out.
PNAA’s 13th Annual Conference: The Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance has released the agenda for its 13th Annual Conference held Feb. 4-6, 2014, in Lynnwood (WA), north of Seattle and south of Everett. Crafted well before the Boeing 777X events of last week, the conference is entitled “What’s Driving Change in the Aerospace Industry”.
Boeing says it will decide within three months where it will build the 777X, or in December or January, the latter just before the conference. Whatever this decision, this specific action will clearly come up at the conference, though it is not specifically a topic on the agenda.
We’re presenting on the State of the Airline Industry on the first day and share a panel on the third day with analysts Michel Merluzeau of G2 Solutions and Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group. We’ve done this panel each year for several years now, and it’s a free-wheeling discussion of what we’ve heard throughout the conference and events generally.
This conference has now become the largest of its kind on the US West Coast, with nearly 450 attendees this past February. The Big Four airframe OEMs, the Big Three engine OEMs and a host of suppliers and lessors present.
MC-21 program update: ATO.ru, a Russian publication, has this update on the Irkut MC-21 program.
A350-1000: Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways, is known for his about-faces at a whim, so much so that he has the nickname U-Turn Al. Once a vocal critic of the Airbus A350-1000, he now says it is a great airplane, according to this interview in Gulf Business. He urges Airbus to consider a larger version of the plane.