Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
Odds and Ends: 737 MAX order breakdown; Airbus to top Boeing; Embraer to PNAA event
Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view. Source: Boeing.
Jan. 6, 2015: 737 MAX Orders: Boeing has broken down the 737 MAX orders for the entire program in response to our inquiry. The 737-8 has captured 87% of the program orders since launch in 2011. The MAX 8 includes the 100 MAX 200 orders for the high density version, placed by Ryanair last year. The MAX 9 has 11% and the MAX 7 just 2% (figures are rounded).
Airbus to top Boeing: It’s not really a surprise, because it seems to happen just about every year. Reuters is reporting that Airbus will top Boeing in gross and net orders when it reports its 2014 performance next week.
Embraer to PNAA: Embraer’s chief commercial officer, John Slattery, will speak at the Feb. 10-12 conference for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance. EMB has presented previously but this is the first time Slattery is joining the conference. Click on the banner ad above to go directly to the conference website.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501, PNAA Conference, FWIW
Jan. 2, 2014: AirAsia 8501: Our friend Geoff Thomas has an interesting commentary about the AirAsia 8501 story. Also, an Airbus A330 pilot for a major US airline, offered these observations about QZ8501. A Linkedin profile suggests this pilot flies for Delta Air Lines.
We are now beginning to see more and more “conclusions” about what happened to 8501 from people who are being described as “experts.” Some of these are people we’ve never heard of, although this isn’t necessarily indicative that they don’t know what they are talking about–but we don’t think they do.
Since the airplane hasn’t been confirmed as found (searchers only think they’ve found it, but bad weather and bad seas have, at this writing, prevented confirmation), nor have the black boxes been recovered, the conclusions being set forth are interesting theories but that’s all they are.
Most of these possibilities are precisely what we’ve reported as areas of investigation and questions to be asked and answered. They way these “experts” are positioning possibilities is actually pretty embarrassing.
Treat these reports with the skepticism they deserve.
One thing we are surprised at: how quickly one of the few victims recovered has been buried. We thought an autopsy would take longer, and an autopsy would be the first clear indication of what happened: whether the victims died by blunt force trauma (i.e, impact with the water) or from decompression (suggesting an inflight fuselage rupture or mid-air break up).
Sixteen bodies are now reported to have been recovered (at 8:30pm PST Jan. 1).
Aviation conferences this month
There are two aviation conferences in Washington State this month.
The first is from the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance October 8. The PNAA Space & Security conference, a one day event, will be at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field in Seattle. The conference is quite timely, considering Boeing just announced job transfers out of Puget Sound from its Defense unit. Two local defense programs that remain, the P-8A Poseidon (based on the 737) and the KC-46A (based on the 767) are on the program for updates.
The British American Business Council (Northwest), or BABC, holds a one day Aerospace Conference, also at the Museum of Flight, on October 28. Airbus Americas will discuss the A-Series Neo programs. NASA will discuss future airplanes, with composites, interiors and other materials also on the agenda.
Repost: Pratt & Whitney GTF program update at PNAA conference, plus Q&A PW, RR and GE
Due to technical issues we don’t begin to understand, the PW GTF engine program update didn’t display the videos, only the links. We are re-posting to correct the situation because we couldn’t fix it within the original post.
Bob Saia, VP of Next Generation Engine development at Pratt & Whitney, provides a program update of the Geared Turbo Fan engine and its prospect of growing into a “Big Engine” serving the twin-aisle market. He appeared at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance 2014 conference in the Seattle area last week.
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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYUUtVEKhIs]
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02RgF1So-X4
Questions and Answers
The following videos are questions and answers of the representatives of the Big Three engine manufacturers. Sound is soft on these two videos; best to use headphones.
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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nArLnhsMraE]
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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Wtqr4FavP0]
Odds and Ends: 777X site; A380 reconfiguration; 777 flashback; PNAA’s 13th annual conference; A350; MC-21
Build 777X “where it makes the most sense:” A Boeing executive, in a CNBC interview, said the 777X would be built “where it makes the most sense.”
CNBC writes that Shephard Hill, president of Boeing International, said, “Honestly, we’re looking within the United States at this point because of the large infrastructure we have there. But again, with the mandate to do it on time, to do it in a quality way, that will drive the decision.”
Meanwhile, Alabama officials revealed they talked with Boeing about locating “some [777X] work” at Boeing’s Huntsville operation. Stories are here and here.
A380 reconfiguration: After our post concerning the secondary market of the Airbus A380 and a figure cited by a lessor that it could cost as much as $20m to reconfigure the airplane (assuming all bells and whistles), we received two emails from readers giving a different perspective.
One wrote that Airbus took the Emirates Airlines specification, which is not as customized as perceived, and outlined three scenarios for reconfiguration.
- Simply change the cabin colors: $600,000 from Airbus and $500,000 for Buyer Furnished Equipment (BFE).
- Change three class to two class, with only the upper deck changing: $3.6m in Airbus costs, $1.6m for BFE.
- High-density, all Y-class, both decks: $4.3m for Airbus costs, $3.5m for BFE.
Another reader wrote that the $20m figure is correct if all existing cabin stuff is tossed and the reconfiguration starts from scratch, but seats and other equipment could be sold to reduce the cost. Going one class, this reader wrote, had a price of between $8m-$10m (slightly higher than that reported by the first reader) and a two class configuration would cost about $5m, roughly the same as noted above.
Flashback on 777 successor: Jon Ostrower, when he was with Flight Global, Tweeted out a flashback down memory lane when we did a podcast with him six years ago, talking about a Boeing 777 successor. We looked pretty smart back then, as it turns out.
PNAA’s 13th Annual Conference: The Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance has released the agenda for its 13th Annual Conference held Feb. 4-6, 2014, in Lynnwood (WA), north of Seattle and south of Everett. Crafted well before the Boeing 777X events of last week, the conference is entitled “What’s Driving Change in the Aerospace Industry”.
Boeing says it will decide within three months where it will build the 777X, or in December or January, the latter just before the conference. Whatever this decision, this specific action will clearly come up at the conference, though it is not specifically a topic on the agenda.
We’re presenting on the State of the Airline Industry on the first day and share a panel on the third day with analysts Michel Merluzeau of G2 Solutions and Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group. We’ve done this panel each year for several years now, and it’s a free-wheeling discussion of what we’ve heard throughout the conference and events generally.
This conference has now become the largest of its kind on the US West Coast, with nearly 450 attendees this past February. The Big Four airframe OEMs, the Big Three engine OEMs and a host of suppliers and lessors present.
MC-21 program update: ATO.ru, a Russian publication, has this update on the Irkut MC-21 program.
A350-1000: Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways, is known for his about-faces at a whim, so much so that he has the nickname U-Turn Al. Once a vocal critic of the Airbus A350-1000, he now says it is a great airplane, according to this interview in Gulf Business. He urges Airbus to consider a larger version of the plane.
Odds and Ends: easyJet’s ‘neutral’ engine; Airbus, Boeing futures in Puget Sound
easyJet’s ‘neutral’ engine: We were amused at the Airbus photo release concerning easyJet firming up its orders for 100 A320neos, announced at the Paris Air Show. In the past, aviation geeks scrutinized the photos to see what engines were depicted to gain a clue if an engine order wasn’t announced with the airframe order. With the easyJet photo release, Airbus entitled it, Airbus “A320neo easyJet Neutral engines.”
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Airbus in Puget Sound: Next week the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance and the Washington Department of Commerce are hosting the first Airbus suppliers fair here in the State.
- This is something near to our heart. We’ve been working on getting Airbus here for a suppliers fair since 2009 as part of the “Beyond Boeing” strategy we outlined in an October 2009 speech at a conference in Spokane (WA). When we began consulting to the Washington Department of Commerce the following year, Commerce (which previously had expressed interest) also took up the cause. The whole thing fell apart at the height of the vitriolic USAF tanker competition, when the Washington Congressional delegation became so political about the affair. Since then, Commerce and the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance took up the cause and next week is the culmination of this effort. According to the State, 40 percent of the Washington suppliers it surveyed already serve Airbus, and the State is the Number 2 supplier in the US to Airbus by company count. Airbus wants to increase its US dollar-based footprint and is even talking about opening an engineering center in Washington during the next 10 years.
- The Puget Sound Business Journal article linked above has several links within it with more background.
Boeing in Puget Sound: Meantime, the Puget Sound Business Journal has several articles about Boeing’s future here:
The South is Winning: Why Puget Sound keeps losing jobs
The South is Winning: New composites could hasten drift
The south is Winning: Could Washington become a Right-to-Work State?
- In this one, we note that the unions “saved Boeing’s ass” during the 747-8 and 787 debacles but if Washington wants to truly be competitive with the South, it needs to become a right-to-work state. Fat chance.
There is also this editorial comment from The Everett Herald.
Allegiant Air sees starting commercial service at Paine Field by the fall
Allegiant Air, a discount carrier that serves Bellingham and other cities in Washington, and which started the studies for commercial aviation service for Paine Field in Everett (WA), said it sees starting air service at Paine Field this fall. “We’re in negotiations now. The first opportunity is in the fall,” says Jude Bricker, VP of Allegiant, who made the announcement at the PNAA conference.
Other stuff:
- Allegiant serves a half dozen cities from Bellingham, including Phoenix, Las Vegas and two cities in Hawaii with 15 flights a week.
- I am as bullish today about the business as ever. Will see real rationalization come to the space. Capacity will be rationalized. There is more ability to pass on higher costs.
- Allegiant serves about 200 markets. Scheduling is done for price. Thursday into Vegas, Sunday out. We don’t fly anything on Tuesday.
- We unbundle product because people who fly Allegiant are extremely elastic as to fares.
- $1.5bn market cap at $78 stock price.
- We schedule by week, by market. We always ask ourselves, what is the least crappy thing we can do with this airplane?
- Roughly we don’t make any money on air fares. We would lose money selling only fares. Ancillary revenue is the profit base.
PNAA Endorses Commercial Air Service at Paine Field
The Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance today endorsed commercial air service at Paine Field in Everett (WA). The move is highly controversial. The Snohomish County Council and the City Councils of Edmonds and Mukilteo, adjacent suburbs, oppose the service.
PNAA made the announcement at its conference in the Seattle suburb of Lynnwood, a few miles from Paine Field.
Allegiant Air, which also spoke at the conference, first proposed commercial service at Paine a few years ago. Alaska Air Group, based in Seattle and the largest carrier at SEA-TAC Airport, opposes service at Paine but has filed the paperwork with the FAA to commence service if Allegiant does. Alaska Airlines and sister company Horizon Air would provide some 50 flights a week to a half-dozen destinations. Allegiant proposes four or five flights a week to two or three cities.
PNAA, a trade group that represents more than 100 companies with nearly 100,000 employees, said commercial service will benefit the supply chain, employees and residents who live north of Seattle who currently have to rely on the congested I-5 and I-405 corridors to go to and from SEA-TAC. The Seattle area is considered one of the Top 10 most traffic congested cities in the country.
Paine Field has about 400 flights a day, only one-third of the airport capacity. Boeing’s wide-body production is at the airport and accounts for only about 5% of the operations. The balance is private aviation and MRO traffic.