Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24. May 30, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3. May 29, 2025
- Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals May 26, 2025
- Updated, May 29, 2025: Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement May 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23. May 23, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 10. Engine choice
By Bjorn Fehrm.
April 28, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 10P. Engine choice. The article discusses the engine architecture choices that must be made when developing the next-generation airliners.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney high bypass geared turbofan technologies. Source: Pratt & Whitney.
UPDATE: Raytheon reports 10% sales growth and record backlog
By Bryan Corliss
April 25, 2023, © Leeham News – Raytheon reported a 10% increase in first-quarter sales and a record backlog of $180 billion in orders, amid what Chairman and CEO Greg Hayes called “continued global airline travel and defense systems demand.”
Among its commercial aircraft segments, Collins Aerospace had first-quarter sales of nearly $5.6 billion, up 16%. That was driven by a 24% increase in commercial aftermarket sales and a 12% increase in commercial original equipment sales.
Collins’ operating profit was up 80% from the first quarter of 2022, Raytheon said.
Meanwhile, Pratt & Whitney had first-quarter sales of $5.2 billion, up 15%, with a 27% increase in original equipment orders and a 14% increase in commercial aftermarket sales.
Pratt& Whitney’s first quarter profit of $415 million was up 175% compared to the first quarter of 2022.
- ‘Constant contact’ with OEMs on rates
- Parts of supply chain stabilizing, COO says
- Commercial aircraft sales lead growth
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9. Engine core advances
By Bjorn Fehrm.
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances. The article discusses how developments for the next-generation airliner engine cores will increase the thermal efficiency of next-generation engines.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine with its compact core enabled by a geared high RPM design. Source; Pratt & Whitney.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Engine core advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion system cores and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
An uneven financial recovery among OEMs and Suppliers
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 27, 2023, © Leeham News: In an article last year, LNA highlighted the divergence in the post-Covid-19 recovery among OEMs and select Tier 1 suppliers. Airbus had higher profits than before the Covid-19 pandemic, while all others lagged. Revenues were well below 2019 levels.
Commercial Aviation OEMs were severely impacted last year by supply chain disruptions. Airbus and Boeing ramped up production significantly slower than envisioned on all programs. The war in Ukraine and tighter financial conditions are complicating the situation further.
LNA collected financial information on the big three aircraft manufacturers and 10 major commercial aircraft suppliers to assess how quickly they recovered. There will also be an analysis of the numerous charges Airbus and Boeing have taken since 1999 through 2022.
Summary
- Significant differences among the three major aircraft OEMs;
- One engine OEM lagging;
- Some OEM suppliers are struggling financially;
- Twelve-digit accumulated charges at Airbus and Boeing combined.
The Airbus A220-500, a deep-dive analysis, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Following Thursday’s article about an up-and-coming Airbus A220-500, we now look at the operational cost for the A220-500 and compare it with the A320neo it should replace.
We put the data we discussed in Thursday’s article in our Aircraft Performance and Cost model, fly the aircraft on a typical single-aisle mission and look at the results.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500 that takes 157 passengers. Source; Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220-500 would be a viable replacement for an A320neo.
- With the changes/improvements we discussed, it beats the A320neo on operational costs. The differences are not of the speculated level, however.
GE, Raytheon report orders surges, but labor and supply chain headwinds
By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 24, 2023, © Leeham News – Aerospace suppliers GE and Raytheon both reported fourth-quarter sales surges, as the commercial aviation industry continued its recovery from the worst of the Covid pandemic.
Both companies also project strong sales growth in 2023, but warned investors that there are lingering supply chain issues and labor shortages that could hold them back.
“While we are broadly beginning to see our supply chain improve, it is not yet at the levels we need,” Raytheon CFO Chris Calio told stock analysts during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Tuesday. “We are assuming a recovery as we move into the back half of the year.”
- GE reports backlog near 10,000 for LEAP
- Raytheon expects double-digit growth for Collins, P&W
- Supply chain improving, but still tangled
- Raytheon talks about Boeing, Airbus rates
Read more
The Airbus A220-500, a deep-dive analysis
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 20, 2023, © Leeham News: It’s a question “of when, not if” there will be an A220-500, we conclude in Tuesday’s article.
We have known about the -500 since the Bombardier days. A longer CS300 was part of the original concepts when the CS100 and CS300 were developed to safeguard that no decision on the smaller variants precluded a larger variant.
As Airbus A321 grows its share of the A320 lines’ output, an A220-500 makes sense, but only when the two A220 final assembly lines in Mirabel and Mobile can produce enough A220s to satisfy demand.
What would be the characteristics of an A220-500? We use our aircraft design and performance model to determine what is possible.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500 that takes 157 passengers. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The Airbus A220 has the base capabilities for a stretch to an A220-500.
- Some changes/improvements are needed, but these are limited to detailed changes beyond a fuselage stretch.
Airbus CCO: “When,” not “if” A220-500 comes; a deep-dive analysis
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer has been open: it is a matter of “when,” not “if” Airbus proceeds with a stretched A220-500.
A220-500. Credit: Leeham News.
The A220-500 would be the third member of the A220 family. The A220-100 is a 110-seat airplane in a typical two-class configuration. The A220-300 seats 135 passengers. The A220-500 would seat around 157, competing head-on with the Airbus A320neo at 152 and the Boeing 737-8 at 164.
The -500 was projected by Bombardier as the CS500. Bombardier focused its commercial aviation future on the C Series. In doing so, it neglected sales efforts on the CRJ and Q400 regional jet and turboprop. Development of the C Series, like programs at Airbus and Boeing, ran billions of dollars over budget. Developed concurrently with two corporate jet programs that also ran well over budget, Bombardier was on a path toward bankruptcy.
Airbus purchased a controlling interest in the CSeries program in 2017 and now owns 75% of the program. But so far, Airbus hasn’t stemmed the losses that began under Bombardier. Without the heft of Airbus’ buying power, Bombardier entered costly contracts with suppliers. Airbus has been renegotiating the contracts, with some success, but not enough. Ramping production up to 14 a month by 2025 from the current 6/mo is a key goal. Demand is there and the higher rate will lower costs.
But the A220-500 will compete with Airbus’ own A320neo. So, the plan to launch the A220-500 has this cloud over the decision.
Some believe that the A220-500 will be so much more efficient than the 737-8 that it will “kill” Boeing’s backbone airplane. LNA doesn’t agree.
This article is the first of three that analyzes the A220’s position in the market and the economics of a potential A220-500 vis-à-vis the A320neo and 737-8 MAX.
Summary
- Is the A320neo already on its way out, prompting plans for the A220-500?
- Talk of adding CFM LEAP to provide an engine choice.
- How does A220-500 compare economically with A320neo, 737-8?
Pontifications: A lost decade for new airplanes
By Scott Hamilton
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Dec. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: In September 2020, LNA wrote that commercial aviation was facing a “lost decade.”
The impetus for this prediction was the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
“Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID,” we wrote. “Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels. However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028.”
Nobody predicted that effective vaccines would emerge as quickly as they did. Drug makers in the US and Europe moved heaven and earth to produce vaccines to fight COVID-19. These have been, by and large, extremely effective. (I’ve had two shots and three boosters and have not caught COVID, despite being at one major conference with 13,000 people.)
China created its own vaccine, which failed to stem the tide there. President Xi quickly adopted total lockdowns at the first sign of outbreaks. Despite this, China is now setting records for new infections. Commercial aviation recovery there remains underperforming. China’s performance illustrates the underlying reasoning we had in concluding commercial aviation was facing a lost decade.
This sector still faces a lost decade, though for some fundamentally different reasons.