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Assessing the MC-21 future

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Introduction

Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience

Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.

viewpoint, is the best in class.

The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.

But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.

Summary

EIS planned for next year, but first flight hasn’t happened yet.
Few orders, small customer base.
Russia itself presents an overhang to the MC-21 program.

Trans-Atlantic for $75, does it work?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

February 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Norwegian will start trans-Atlantic flying between Edinburgh and New England for $75 one-way in late spring when it gets its Boeing 737 MAX 8.

The introductory price will be $69. CEO Bjorn Kjos says the operating costs of the 737 MAX 8, “which is very low,” will make this level of ticket pricing possible.

We were the first to point out (November 2014 in this article) the re-engined MAX 8 would be a trans-Atlantic enabler at a new cost level. We didn’t put the passenger ticket at $75 at the time. Time to check if it’s possible to make money with such fare prices.

Summary:

We use our aircraft performance model to generate the operating costs between Scotland and New England/upstate New York.
We then compare the total costs for the trip versus revenue. What is the average ticket price to break even?
We use an aggressive cabin, the same as for the European traffic.
Is it OK to travel at that comfort level for the seven hours over the Atlantic?
For $75, you bet it is.

2 Comments

Posted on February 9, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airlines, Boeing, Premium

737 MAX, 737 MAX 8, Boeing, CFM, LCC Long Haul, Norwegian Air Shuttle

Assessing the future of COMAC programs

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Introduction

Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s effort to become a viable commercial aerospace alternative was filled with rocky fits and starts for its two signature airliner programs, the AVIC ARJ-21 and the COMAC C919.

COMAC, a spin off from AVIC and yet another government-controlled entity, is already casting eyes on a 250-seat, twin-aisle design, the C929—ostensibly in a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp.

The ARJ-21 regional jet finally entered service after delays of eight years. The C919 target EIS is now 2019, six years after the original date. The first flight hasn’t even taken place.

Chinese officials set a target EIS for the C929 of 2026.

A rough road remains ahead for each program.

Summary

Exceedingly slow delivery ramp up for the ARJ-21.
First flight of the C919 planned this year.
Wide-body C929 will challenge the Airbus A330 and Boeing 787.

1 Comment

Posted on February 6, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Premium, United Aircraft

Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, Bombardier, C919, C929, Comac, LEAP-X, United Aircraft Corp.

Assessing Embraer’s EJet future

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Introduction

Feb. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer’s new E2 jet faces a major challenge: the US pilot Scope Clause that limits the number, seats and weight of aircraft that can by operated by regional airlines on behalf of the US legacy carriers.

The E175 E2 exceeds the 86,000 lb weight limit in the Scope Clause. Unions declined last year to adjust this limit upward. The next round of contract talks begins in 2019.

Summary

Trans States Airlines has options and letters of intent for 50+50 E175 E2s.
Skywest is listed by EMB with “firm” orders for 100 E175-E2s and options—but in reality, these are conditional orders.
Embraer professes confidence in building the bridge between the E1 and E2.

2 Comments

Posted on February 2, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

E-Jet, Embraer, Premium

Assessing Bombardier commercial programs

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Introduction

Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier hopes to land a major, blue-chip order for its CSeries this year but otherwise isn’t counting on significant orders for its flagship airliner.

Officials don’t have available delivery slots until 2020, bar a few here and there, to attract sizeable orders.

The future of the aging CRJ could get a boost from recalcitrant Us labor unions who refuse to alter the 86,000 lb aircraft weight limit under the Scope Clauses. These make the Embraer E175-E2 and Mitsubishi MRJ90 too heavy for the regional airlines providing contract flying for the US majors.

The future of the Q400 turboprop looks bleak.

Summary

The CSeries delivery stream appears sufficient to match production ramp up through 2019.
There is a big production gap in 2020 at the target rate of 10/mo.
More than 50 firm orders have indefinite deferred delivery dates.
The backlog for the CRJ “falls off the cliff” next year, as does the Q400.

2 Comments

Posted on January 30, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

ATR, Bombardier, E-Jet, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Premium

ATR, Bombardier, CRJ, CRJ1000, CRJ700, CRJ900, CS100, CS300, CSeries, E175 E2, E175-E1, EJet, Embraer, Q400

Assessing A330, A350 production futures

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Introduction

Jan. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus A350 production rates are solid at 10/mo through 2022 but can’t support increasing them to the oft-discussed 13/mo, based on LNC’s analysis of the current backlog.

Airbus A330-900 and A350-900. Source: Airbus.

The backlog currently falls off sharply in 2023. At six years out, there is plenty of time to fill the production gap—in theory. The dearth of wide-body orders through the end of the decade could make this challenging.

The A330 is a near-term challenge.

According to an analysis of its backlog, only three-quarters of the delivery slots are filled in 2019 and fewer in 2020. The backlog begins to fall sharply in 2021.

Summary

A350, like Boeing 787, is not achieving 1:1 book:bill.
Like the 787, the A350 production is currently living off the backlog.
A330neo sales are focus at Airbus this year. Delivery schedule falls off in 2019.

3 Comments

Posted on January 26, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Premium

777 Classic, 777X, 787, A330ceo, A330neo, A350, A350-1000, Airbus, Boeing

A380 cost analysis

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Introduction

Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a sister article, we will describe how Airbus A380 might change from a flagship aircraft for legacy carriers to a competitive tool for long-range LCCs.

This change of the A380’s profile is based on bringing cabin densities to the levels of other long haul aircraft. We have historically made detailed operating costs studies of the A380 versus other large long-haul aircraft.

With the possible change in the aircraft’s operating profile, we decided to update the study with the A380ceo pitted against its main competitors, Boeing’s 777-300ER and 777-9. Different from the previous study, we now compared all aircraft in a higher density, two-class seating.

Summary:

The A380neo is pushed out in time for now. Airbus has instead started a cabin density program.
We update the study of A380 versus its main competitors to see if the cabin changes goes far enough.
In the last study, the A380 had lower seat mile cost than 777-300ER but was beaten by the 777-9.
We check if a denser cabin makes the A380 competitive with the 777-9

4 Comments

Posted on January 23, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Boeing, Emirates Airlines, GE Aviation, Premium, Rolls-Royce

777-300ER, 777-9, 777X, A380, Airbus, Boeing, Emirates Airline, Rolls-Royce

Boeing 737 MAX 10

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

January 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has given its sales team the “authority to offer” the 737 MAX 10. The aircraft is a stretched version of the 737 MAX 9, designed to compete more successfully with Airbus A321neo.

Boeing worked on the variant for the last year. It started off as a more ambitious change over the 737 MAX 9, but it turned out too expensive and would have taken too long to get to market. The variant that Boeing now offers to airlines is a simple stretch of the 737 MAX 9.

The backing down to a stretched MAX 9 solves the cost and timing problem, but will it solve the competitiveness problem? We make a first analysis.

Summary:

The offered 737 MAX 10 is a longer fuselage MAX 9.
The longer fuselage closes the cabin dimensions gap to the A321neo.
The 737 MAX 10 is longer and heavier than the MAX 9, affecting performance.
To save field performance, a change to the main landing gear was necessary.

3 Comments

Posted on January 16, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Premium

737 MAX 9, A321NEO, Airbus, Boeing, MAX 10

Comparing 777 Classic, 787 Book:Bill in recent years

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Introduction

Jan. 11, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Future production rates of the Boeing 787 is a concern for LNC, which has been explained in detail here.

A little history provides some context.

Figure 1. Analysis from March 2014. Click on image to enlarge.

As far back as March 2014, we identified the growing production gap for the 777 Classic. In presentations in April and May 2014, we outlined this gap (Figure 1) and forecast that production rates would have to come down in the not-too-distant future.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Aircraft list prices largely unchanged (Updated)

Update: Airbus Jan. 11 announced a 1% list price increase. The chart has been updated.

Jan. 10, 2017: Aircraft list prices are largely unchanged for 2017, the airline industry demand cools for new aircraft.

Sales in 2017 were down for the Big Two, Airbus and Boeing. Boeing announced orders for 688 aircraft, well off of last year, which also was a major decline from the year before.

Airbus announces tomorrow, with sales expected to be in a similar range.

Bombardier and Embraer announce later this month or next.

LNC compiled the current list prices from all the manufacturers, detailed in Figure 1 below.

Airbus and Boeing discounts typically range from 40% to 60%, depending on the customer, the airplane and the size of the order. BBD and EMB discounts may also be steep, depending on the campaign.

The balance of this article is for Subscribers only.

3 Comments

Posted on January 10, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Premium, Sukhoi

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer

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