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Introduction
April 2, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Even as Pratt & Whitney prepares for the entry-into-service of its new
Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo, it’s looking ahead to the most likely all new airplane that could be launched as early as 2018 with an EIS in 2025: the Middle of the Market (MOM) airplane, also most popularly known the as Boeing 757 replacement.
Except that this new airplane really isn’t a 757 replacement, but one that is more accurately a replacement for the Boeing 767-200 or the Airbus A300: a twin aisle, 250 passenger airplane with 4,000nm-5,000nm range.
Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and environment for Pratt & Whitney, believe a derivative of the GTF will be on this new airplane.
Summary
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Introduction
March 23, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airbus faces a production gap for the A330ceo and has twice announced reductions in the rate: first, from 10/mo to 9/mo in 4Q2015 and then again to 6/mo in 1Q2016.
Despite confidence expressed by John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that rate six will be maintained going into production of the successor A330neo, we think the production gap is great enough that another rate cut might be necessary.
Summary
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Introduction
March 22, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: The aerospace analyst team at Wells Fargo last Thursday predicted a production rate cut for the Boeing 777 Classic despite continued statements by Boeing it will maintain production at the current 100/yr.
“We remain skeptical that Boeing will be able to sustain 777 production at 8.3/mo (100/yr) through 2020,” Wells Fargo’s Sam Pearlstein wrote.
Pearlstein predicts a rate cut in 2017 to 7/mo. We believe rates will eventually fall to 5/mo by the time the production airplanes for the 777-9 begins in 2018 for 2020 entry-into-service. (Boeing hopes to advance EIS to 4Q2019, according to our Market Intelligence).
Wells Fargo cites several reasons for its conclusion about the 777 Classic. We have some additional information gleaned from Market Intelligence that cast some unexpected challenges for Boeing to achieve its goal of selling 40-60 Classics per year.
Summary
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
18 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In Part 1 of of this series we investigated the market sector 225/5000, which is our name for the market segment beyond the capacity of single aisles A320 and 737 aircraft. Boeing calls this Middle Of the Market, MOM, and is studying which aircraft type would best cover this segment.
In Part 5 of the series we concluded that beyond 220 seats a dual aisle aircraft can be competitive as it can increase utilization due to shorter ground turn-around time. We now conclude the investigation by looking at what Airbus response can be based on a further developed A320 and how it would stack up against optimized seven abreast dual aisle alternatives from Boeing’s MOM study, one of these using Boeing’s patented elliptical fuselage, Figure 1.
Summary
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
11 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: After having analyzed the different alternatives which would be available to Boeing for its Middle Of the Market, MOM, studies and having singled out the most competitive configurations, we will now add revenue to the equation. In the work to establish Cash and Direct Operating Costs for the aircraft, we saw which variant had the best cost for a certain capacity and utilization. We could not see which aircraft would be the most profitable however; this requires that we bring in the revenue side.
Revenue management analysis of different aircraft types on an airlines network is a science in it selves. Sophisticated fare class strategies with connected marketing activities makes such studies elaborate and beyond the scope of our analysis. Our primary goal is to understand the difference in operational efficiency of a single versus dual aisle aircraft with the same seating capacity. For this, a simpler average margin concept will work that shows us the effects of single versus dual aisle for aircraft margins in the MOM segment.
Summary
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In the third part of the article series around the need for a more capable solution for 180-240 seats and 5,000 nautical miles, we compared different clean sheet single and dual aisle aircraft to the Airbus A321LR and Boeing’s 787-8, the two aircraft that form the border to the segment.
We could see that a single aisle aircraft started to have trouble with weight at around 220 passengers using our normalized seating rule set. This would with normal OEM seating rules be around 230-240 passengers. At the same time the dual aisle aircraft becomes stronger the more seats one assumes. The reason is their thicker fuselage, Figure 1, lends itself better to aircraft which passes 50 meters/160 feet in length.
Their advantages in boarding and deplaning then starts to outweigh their disadvantages in weight and drag. This trend is explored further in this part where we add Cash Operating Cost, COC and Direct Operating Cost, DOC, to the analysis.
Summary
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
04 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In the first and second part of the article series around the need for a more capable solution for 180-240 seats and 5000 nautical miles, which we have labeled the 225/5000 Sector, we went through the derivatives we have analyzed as competitors to Airbus A321LR and showed why none of them are effective as a Boeing solution.
We also looked at the wetted area and weight for our common single and dual aisle aircraft. These parameters are the principal components that determine an aircraft’s efficiency given a certain engine efficiency. We also developed the market picture, outlining a substantial market by the time of entry into service of a clean sheet design by 2025, given that certain market requirements could be fulfilled.
We will now project different solutions to the requirements, thereby utilizing the preliminary design part of our proprietary aircraft model. We will look at three different cabin configurations in four different size classes between 180 to 240 seats and calculate size and weights and the resulting efficiency of the different variants. Against the key data for these different aircraft and their operational efficiency we will be able to postulate what will be the next move from Boeing and Airbus in this segment.
Summary
The findings in this our third article include: