Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Boeing vows to maintain freighter dominance
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the jet freighter market from the dawn of the jet age. It aims to keep its dominance.
But for the first time since the collapse of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, Boeing is being credibly challenged by Airbus and P2F conversions. Airbus is selling the A350F. EFW, which is a joint venture between Airbus and ST Aerospace, and IAI Bedek offer freighter conversions for the A330. The A350F is Airbus’ first credible challenge to Boeing’s dominance in the widebody freighter section. (The A300-600RF was a niche aircraft. A310 combis and the A330-200F were unsuccessful.)
EFW, Precision Conversions, and nominally at least two others offer conversions for the A320/321. There are more than 100 A330 P2F and at least five dozen A320/321 P2F orders, marking the first challenge to Boeing’s dominance in narrowbody freighters converted by the aftermarket.
Boeing has been testing the market for months on whether to launch a conversion program for the 777-300ER. Boeing Global Services announced in 2018 at the Farnborough Air Show that it was launching a -300ER P2F program, but never followed through. If Boeing proceeds this time, it faces competition from IAI Bedek, Mammoth Freighters, and Kansas Modification Center, each of which already has firm orders for about 65 conversions.
Exclusive: No change in Scope Clause in new United pilot contract that would have allowed E175-E2
By Scott Hamilton
June 24, 2022, (c) Leeham News: There is no change to the Scope Clause in the new United Airlines pilot contract governing the number of regional jets that can be operated by regional partners, LNA confirms.
There is also no change in the weight of the aircraft allowed, a blow to Embraer’s hopes for the E175-E2. The E2 is heavier than the E175-E1, which entered service in 2004. Embraer designed the E2 to be used with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine. The GTF is more economical than the E1’s GE CF34, quieter, and emits fewer emissions. But it is slightly heavier than the Scope Clause contracts permit. The USA is virtually the only market for the E175-E2.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 25. High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 24, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we discussed how a High Temperature Fuel Cell (HTFC) could improve the installation of a propulsion system in our 70-seat airliner. We now add this variant to the systems we examined for installation effects and efficiencies.
The deeper discussion is in the sister article, Part 25P. High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner.
Figure 1. The ATR 72-600 70-seater turboprop. Source: ATR.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 25P. High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. The deeper discussion.
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June 24, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 25, High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. It adds the masses and efficiencies of a High Temperature Fuel Cell system to our 70-seat airliner fuel cell variants.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 23, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business: to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or with dedicated freighter aircraft?
We could see in last week’s article that air freight companies have generally been more profitable over the last decade than passenger airlines. Why?
We continue the analysis by looking at the cost of flying cargo in passenger airliner bellies versus dedicated freighters.
Summary
- At today’s high fuel prices, transporting cargo in a passenger aircraft’s belly is cheaper than on freighters when we do a first-level analysis.
- Does this change when we go deeper?
Commercial Aircraft programs duration from launch to delivery over the years
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: New airplane programs used to come to market in four years. Now, the launch-to-entry-into-service period has been seven years or more. (Chinese and Russian programs take even longer.)
Boeing launched the 787 in December 2003. EIS was October 2011. Airbus’ A350, launched in response to the 787 in 2004, went through several iterations which added time to the program. Delays added more time. EIS was in January 2015.
Bombardier’s C Series was launched in 2008. EIS was in July 2016. The Boeing 777X was launched in 2013. EIS is now targeted for 2025. Boeing launched the 747-8 in 2005. EIS was in 2011. The Boeing 737 MAX was launched in July 2011. EIS was May 2017. Airbus’ A320neo was launched in December 2010. EIS was in January 2016.
Boeing has been discussing the New Midmarket Airplane (or whatever it was called throughout changing nomenclature) since 2012. It still hasn’t launched the program. Once it does, how long will it take to enter service?
Credit: Boeing
Any new program is a multi-year, multi-million investment that, in the worst case, can take decades before recovering the initial development and production ramp-up expenditures.
Several recent programs, notably the 777X, have faced significant delays between the envisioned and actual start of deliveries to airlines.
Boeing claims that advances in manufacturing techniques will reduce the time required to develop the next aircraft program. However, regulatory scrutiny is higher nowadays and the aircraft built are more complex than in previous generations.
LNA analyzes how the time between the program launch and entry into service has evolved since the beginning of the Jet Age. The goal is to find whether there is a trend and in what direction. The analysis focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas.
Summary
- An unmistakable trend;
- The latest clean sheet designs took significantly longer;
- Engine development dictates recent derivative program timelines;
- Future program considerations.
Pontifications: Why I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing still has a deep hole to climb out of. There’s still plenty of opportunity for missteps along the way. But I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future.
Here’s why.
- There are tangible things to point to that are indicators Boeing internally is now optimistic about its long flirtation with disaster.
- Despite well-deserved skepticism and concern about when, or even if, Boeing is going to launch a new airplane program, signs point to “yes.” These go beyond the usual rhetoric that often has a hollow public relations ring.
- The signs are there that Boeing at long last appears near resuming delivery of the 787, a critical step in its recovery.
- Clearing the inventory of the 737 has been infuriatingly slow. But if one had been paying close attention, this shouldn’t have been a surprise—and China’s refusal so far to authorize its airlines to return the MAX to service is but one issue.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 24. High Temperature Fuel Cells
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 17, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the installation effects and efficiencies of the fuel cell systems we discussed in earlier parts of the series.
We could see the variants were significantly heavier than the propulsion system they would replace for an ATR72 size aircraft. The discussion assumed classical PEM fuel cells, also called Low Temperature PEM Fuel Cells. Now we look at if High Temperature PEM Fuel Cells can improve the installation situation.
Figure 1. The ATR 72-600 70-seater turboprop. Source: ATR.
FAA adopts ICAO 2027 emissions, noise rules; death knell for new production 767F, 777F
- 787F, NMA-F are natural conclusions to consider for a successor to 767F
By Scott Hamilton
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: The US Federal Aviation Administration yesterday announced it will adopt the emissions and noise rules proposed in 2017 to reduce emissions and noise in commercial jets and turboprops by 2027. Failure to comply means the offending airplanes can’t be produced from 2028. The rules won’t affect airplanes already produced.
New emissions and noise rules mean production of the Boeing 767-300ERF must end in 2027. Credit: Leeham News.
The FAA’s move means that Boeing’s popular 767-300ERF and 777-200LRF can’t be produced from 2028.
The rules were adopted by the global organization ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization. But countries individually must adopt them. The FAA proposes a new rule to bring the US into compliance. By federal law, the FAA proposed rule must be published in the Federal Register. A comment period follows, after which the FAA either moves forward with the rule as proposed, revises it, or rejects its proposed rule based on the comments.
Boeing already announced a successor to the 777F: the 777-8F, a member of the 777X family. Entry-into-service is slated for mid-2027 before the rules take effect. Boeing doesn’t have a solution for the termination of the 767F production.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business; to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
The market clearly says both, as this is the state of affairs. Market economy says a business will find its optimal form, and it’s about fifty-fifty now. But what are the plus and minuses of these two very different ways of transporting cargo, and why do we have the present situation?
We search for answers by looking at the transport fundamentals and comparing costs with revenues.
Summary
- About half of the world’s cargo flies in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and the other half flies on dedicated freighters.
- What are the factors that have created this division, and will it change?