Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Finally, Boeing moves in the right direction
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: At long last, Boeing seems to be moving in the right direction on its next new airplane.
Aviation Week reported this week Boeing appears to be developing a third member of the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), dubbed the NMA-5X. The NMA-5X is sized directly across from the Airbus A321neo family. It’s the third member of the NMA family that was missing throughout Boeing’s struggles to form a business model for the NMA.
A three-member NMA Lite family is needed for Boeing. Clockwise, they are the NMA-5, the NMA-6 and the NMA-7. Source: Leeham News.
The current concept is also what Boeing wanted to do in 2011 when Airbus forced its hand with the huge American Airlines order for the A319/321ceo/neo. Boeing launched the 737 MAX instead.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Airbus A330neo
Feb. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: The Airbus A330neo is technically a good airplane. But sales never took off. There are only 331 orders for the
airplane and easily more than 100 are iffy. Airbus publicly said there was potential for 1,000 orders when it launched the program. Why hasn’t the neo taken off any better? This week’s 10 Minutes About the A330neo explains why.
The 737 MAX – A Tragedy 60 years in the Making
This is the first in a series. Special to Leeham News.
By Peter W. Lemme
Twitter satcom_guru
Part 1: Min to the Max
- The Customer is Always Right
- Heredity
- Boeing 757 Misses the Mark
- Where were you when the 737 hit the fan
- Idiot Lights
- Finding a Way
- Equivalent Safety – Flying Qualities
Feb. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: The Boeing 707 entered service in 1958. 60 years later, a Boeing 737 MAX, the model’s fourth generation, crashed into the sea with all lives tragically lost. After, the 737 entered service in 1968, every subsequent 737 model was carefully crafted with the minimum changes necessary to deliver performance and reliability improvements. Differences were discouraged in order to reduce pilot training requirements, holding dear to visible family traits pioneered by the 707.
Figure 1. The Boeing 737 MAX became Boeing’s most controversial commercial aircraft. Its development was 60 years in the making. Source: Boeing.
Changes that jeopardized an amended Federal Aviation Administration Type Certificate were culled. A new type certificate is a costly and lengthy process, with considerable risk.
The 757 should have saved Boeing from endless 737 generations, but the will of the customer changed its trajectory from the start, in the end leaving no mark at all.
The 737-100 was a marvel by fitting the engine tight under the wing, and every generation since has marveled at how to fit the latest engine under the wing.
Every swept wing air transport suffers growing pains, working out issues with flying qualities.
The 737 seems to have diverged from the other Boeing airplanes progressively. Should the 737 MAX’s now-infamous Maneuvering Augmentation Characteristics System (MCAS) implementation have been applied to the stabilizer? Did Boeing have a better choice?
Flying qualities approved “to the letter”, quantitatively, are balanced by qualitative measures, with latitude in judging acceptable performance.
Exclusive: Boeing shifts 118 777 orders to “iffy” under accounting rule; 191 firm orders remain
By Scott Hamilton and Vincent Valery
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: There are now just 191 firm orders for the Boeing 777X.
Boeing last week reclassified 118 777X orders from firm to iffy (LNA’s term) due to the accounting rule called ASC 606. There were 17 iffy 777 orders before last week. The ASC total is now 135. After the adjustments, Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.
ASC 606 essentially requires contracts with customers that may be unable to take delivery due to their financial condition. Alternatively, an order can receive such classification if the seller has strong reasons to believe the transaction won’t materialize, despite the customer’s ability to pay.
Source: Boeing
Airbus, Boeing diverge on technology for next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing are diverging on paths for a sustainable, reduced emissions strategy for the next new airplanes.
The stakes are high: billions of dollars in sales, dramatic shifts protecting the environment and which company will be dominate for decades to come.
Source: Boeing
Airbus committed to bringing to market a zero-emissions, hydrogen-powered aircraft by the middle of the next decade. A dramatic shift in supporting infrastructure is needed to support innovating new technology.
Boeing is taking a more conservative approach, but one that won’t require costly changes to the infrastructure or major changes to airplane design. Instead, Boeing is betting on delivering airliners by 2030 that can use 100% sustainable fuels.
Summary
- Boeing believes hydrogen technology is farther away than Airbus thinks.
- Airbus wants a hydrogen-fueled airplane in service by 2035.
- Boeing committed to a 100% sustainably-fueled airplane by 2030.
- Who’s right is a multi-billion dollar bet.
Pontifications: Unraveling the numbers
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Understanding the real market demand for an airplane sector is a complicated thing.
What Airbus and Boeing say the market is for an airplane sometimes is a matter of what they don’t say.
On the Jan. 27 earnings call, Boeing set the program accounting for the 777X at 350 airplanes. This number declined from 400. Simultaneously, Boeing took a whopping $6.5bn forward loss on the program. (Not all is attributed to the accounting block.)
Later in the same call, CEO David Calhoun said, “Across the total widebody market of more than 8,000 projected deliveries over the next two decades, we see replacement demand for over 1,500 large widebody airplanes which are well suited for the 777X.”
Some interpreted this to mean that Boeing expects to sell 1,500 777Xs.
Well, not really.
So, let’s unravel these numbers and what “market demand” or “replacement demand” means. Everything discussed below applies equally to Airbus or Boeing.
Day of reckoning for the HNA Group
By Vincent Valery
Jan. 31, 2021, © Leeham News: After years of financial struggles, the HNA Group finally declared bankruptcy on Jan. 29. Despite a government-led attempt at restructuring the over-indebted group, the group couldn’t avoid such a fate due to the struggles of its numerous subsidiaries exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
LNA wrote an article in the fall of 2019 on the group’s complex structure and ongoing financial struggles.
HOTR: Boeing continues to burn off deferred charges
By the Leeham News Team
Jan. 29, 2021, © Leeham News: With all the headlines about Boeing’s record-breaking 2020 loss and the $6.5bn forward loss for the 777X program, there was one item overlooked.
Boeing continues to reduce the deferred production costs for the 787. This is despite reducing production last year and suspending deliveries from October.
Deferred costs continued to come down quarter-over-quarter. Peaking at more than $32bn years ago, the total now is $16.6bn.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 22. Hydrogen fuel cells
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 29, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Over the last weeks, we looked at Center of Gravity (CG) problems with rear fuselage liquid hydrogen tanks as used in Airbus’ ZEROe turbofan airliner concept. We can conclude that the CG shift is manageable for a short-range aircraft (range below 2,000nm).
Now we spend the next Corners diving into hydrogen fuel cell technology and how it can benefit a hydrogen-fueled airliner.
Figure 1, The principle of a hydrogen fuel cell. Source: Airbus.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Boeing’s 2020 Financial Results
Jan. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing on Jan. 27 reported its 2020 financial results. They were ugly, to nobody’s surprise. Beset by the 737 MAX grounding all year, delays in the 777X program, a suspension of deliveries from October of the 787, continued issues with the KC-46A tanker and problems with the space program, “ugly” financial results were expected.
LNA talks about the 777X, 737 MAX and 787 programs in today’s episode of 10 Minutes About.